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I’ve seen a lot of people either saying that the economy should open up immediately or that we should remain under shelter in place for longer but not much discussion beyond that. That being said.....
What metrics do you think we should be looking at?
How should we go about easing off the executive/local orders?
(Also knowing that a second/third wave will probably be inevitable later this year as soon as things go back to normal without any known treatment or vaccine)
I think anti-body testing will be the biggest factor. If the results come back that more people have had it, than originally thought, I expect limits to be lifted much sooner.
From my seat we need some form of the following in NC
1. COVID test and supply to conduct 15-30K a day.
2. The infrastructure to employ full use of contact tracing in all instances of a positive test.
3. Reliable antibody test
Obviously you want something medicinal to mitigate the seriousness of getting it, and it doesn’t have to be a cure, but if you have the “intelligence” in place to identify and isolate then you can get back to something closer to normal.
There is the people part of the equation as well, but ignoring that, the above represents the tools we need.
What seems odd to me is that this virus is Not acting normally. I was a researcher there is more to this than just another virus as we have some smart people who can’t get their heads around this. It’s been worked on since January despite what people are being told.
This virus is unique in that while we can generalize who is at risk, the virus has also shown that it can kill people who are relatively young and have no risk factors, although that is less common.
Overall the virus has a high survival rate, but based on reports people can go from doing okay to not very quickly without little warning.
Because of that, I have a problem with accepting the mitigation/flattening the curve point of view which is basically predicated on being okay with the fact that everybody will likely be exposed to the virus at some point, but to delay the spread so that the hospital/ICU capacity is not overwhelmed. I agree it's the best option we have right now unfortunately.
In my mind, "business as usual" shouldn't really happen until either one or more of the following are available:
-Reliable treatment
-Successful vaccine
-Antibody testing
-Universal testing and quarantining/contact tracing
From my seat we need some form of the following in NC
1. COVID test and supply to conduct 15-30K a day.
2. The infrastructure to employ full use of contact tracing in all instances of a positive test.
3. Reliable antibody test
Obviously you want something medicinal to mitigate the seriousness of getting it, and it doesn’t have to be a cure, but if you have the “intelligence” in place to identify and isolate then you can get back to something closer to normal.
There is the people part of the equation as well, but ignoring that, the above represents the tools we need.
I'm sitting next to you, apparently.
The one element of this event which amazes, surprises and depresses me is how willfully ignorant people can be. If we simply throw open society again without proven guardrails, this thing rages out of control and millions of people die, including many who likely consider themselves safe. We also cede the right to protect those who need protecting because every single interaction with any external source puts at-risk people's lives on the line.
I get why service people are desperate, this is insanely stressful and scary. But if large blocks of people start dying and we spike the curve (which is exactly what will happen), how much will it matter that you were able to make your May rent if the economy implodes in June without any near-term chance of recovering?
I suspect these same people would have insisted that the government stop rationing things during WW II, if social media had been available back then.
Anyone know of any historical stats on death during recession or depression? It's probably not cut and dry, but for sure many many people will die as a result.
The one element of this event which amazes, surprises and depresses me is how willfully ignorant people can be. If we simply throw open society again without proven guardrails, this thing rages out of control and millions of people die, including many who likely consider themselves safe. We also cede the right to protect those who need protecting because every single interaction with any external source puts at-risk people's lives on the line.
I get why service people are desperate, this is insanely stressful and scary. But if large blocks of people start dying and we spike the curve (which is exactly what will happen), how much will it matter that you were able to make your May rent if the economy implodes in June without any near-term chance of recovering?
I suspect these same people would have insisted that the government stop rationing things during WW II, if social media had been available back then.
I said to twingles in another thread on the topic that if we the people (today's people) existed during the 1920s-1940s, we would have never got out of the Great Depression and we would have left the rest of the world to be swallowed up by Nationalist Fascist forces that, in our timeline reality, our parents, grandparents and great grandparents did everything they could to save the world from.
Meatless Fridays, Wheatless Wednesdays, Victory Gardens, rolling black and brown outs to ensure the production had the energy they needed to produce the goods needed for the fight (not to mention darkening urban centers to ensure our enemies couldn't see them at night). We don't have the collective intestinal fortitude to be them. There was a Barbasol commercial a few years back that nailed this perfectly (link below)
To your point, what do people who are clamoring for the economy to open back up come hell or high water think will happen to the economy if we open up, with ridiculously limited tools in place, and the fire restarts? The impact will be exponentially worse. Its like tearing off a bandaid halfway, realizing its a bad idea, putting it back on to protect the wound, but now the wound is infected because you opened it up for a short period of time. Instead of dealing with just the pain of pulling at the skin/hair, you now have an underlying infection that needs a whole slew of other tools to mitigate.
I don't know anyone who is hoping "we stay closed". Everyone I know; Rs and Ds and Is and Men and Women and Christians and Jews and Muslims want nothing more than to get back to life. But this isn't the flu. This isn't a disease our bodies have ever seen before. Yes, 60K people die from the flu every year. What would that number be if the seasonal strain of flu is a strain we have never seen before be? The comparison is simply bunk from the get.
Our Tribalism does us no favors and blinds us to reality (and from irony). See MI protests yesterday as an example.
Anyone know of any historical stats on death during recession or depression? It's probably not cut and dry, but for sure many many people will die as a result.
I saw a tweet on this exact question a few days ago. Let me see if I can find it.
Just ran into Publix for two things and people can't even pay attention to the one way aisles (me included) so I can't even imagine if they just say "GO! be free!"
I'll be #athome till the kids go back to school in August. Then I'll be opened up tomore at risk for infection but hopefully a viable and widely available treatment is available by then. Had the flu in Feb and took Tamiflu and it worked great. Need a Tamiflu for 'Rona.
Last edited by twingles; 04-16-2020 at 09:08 AM..
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