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Ya I don't claim to know what the exact range for the aysmptomatic throughout crowd is, just that those are the proverbial embers waiting to restart the fire if you will.
oh, definitely. We don't know if we're worried too much or not enough about it. Truly, that could be as big of an issue as the actual effect. Technically right now, we have about a 1 in 150 chance of contracting the virus (that assumes a doubling of cases over the next 9 months) if you put an equal weight on the entire population. Asymptomatic should have a higher R value than any cases, so that's why we social distance/practice good hygiene.
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I get the "angst". I do. I guess my question is this.
Is a tiny (as a % of the total Federal budget) line item on a budget for "Pandemic Response" worth cutting, because to your point, it happens at this scale once in a lifetime, if the cost of not having/heeding it and having to start from scratch when it shows up (because it will, we simply just don't know when) is many, many times the line item cost?
For instance, lets say the "Pandemic Response" team cost $5B a year. That is a crap load of coin to you and I (and everyone here) but in the scheme of things, that would represent .1% of the latest budget. But this is the team that is your eyes and ears. Your early "set in motion" team that gets the ball rolling when the monster shows up on the horizon.
Now lets say COVID19 costs the US Economy $950B-$1T in lost GDP (I saw estimates in March going this high) never mind the losses you can't quantify; lives.
In this (admittedly) over simplified example, you would have pay for that organization 200 times over before you reach the break even point in terms of losses. From my seat, whatever the spend is is worth it if it cuts the "cost when these things show up" by 25% even. To me, that is easy money to spend. YMMV.
I completely agree, but were it so easy as to get government/Congress to function from anything resembling an "economic return" model. We spend a lot more than makes sense on defense, but the ultimate cost should that program fail is even higher. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, I don't think the pandemic response team that was "disbanded"/reassigned (they still had jobs, and technically the functions were ongoing) that happened in July 2018 meant the difference in response. I know Trump tried to cut the CDC budget every year (though funding continually increased when passed) - but WHERE did CDC propose cuts?
And where were the states' supplies of PPE and ventilators? I get that it costs a LOT to maintain 2-3x the critical hospital rooms and don't suggest they should have had those. But there seemed to be an obvious under-inventory of the PPE.
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It is the one, but read it (beyond the lede ). It doesn't really bash Trump so much personally as it really lays bare the ineptitude of the people he has put in place, which was his choice and he has to own that. Azar at HHS is a lobbyist, Redfield at CDC is most famous for trying to battle AIDS by saying "don't bone. Its naughty!", Hahn's never run an agency and was plopped down in the key agency in this (the FDA) what a month before all this hit? So a guy who has never run something like that makes sense to put in place right when this thing gets going (and you knew it was coming for the two months prior)?
Azar had been in the HHS sphere before - ~ 6 yrs in Bush 2 admin - including SARS response.
Hahn FDA - yes he was Nov/Dec. Can't tell you about Redfield - but you are completely correct, they were Trump's choice and he owns them.
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It (hospital system) never was overwhelmed here. Where is Murray from? WA State? Something tells me her state was a little more deeply impacted than we have been. Whether it was overwhelmed, I don't know. I don't live in Seattle.
The only place it came close to critical was the NYC metro.
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again you're working from the perception that Trump actually wanted to do something about it. I don't think his public proclamations all the way to almost mid March speak to that. He seemingly was much more concerned with "keep this thing from ruining my economy as that is my Golden Ticket" than he was actually fighting it. Further, its a lot easier to bend the rules at say DOJ than it is at FDA/CDC.
now we're into politics, so presumably we'll agree to abstain .
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Didn't Klain play the role of Mike Pence? Basically "Team Project Manager and Organizer"? He wasn't there organizing medical responses or providing expertise, he was a PM for all intents and purposes. Just as Pence has been here. Pence is the "Team Manager" and Fauci/Birx are the "experts".
he did, for what - 3 months? And now, he's a prominently-displayed expert? I don't buy it, but again we're introducing partisanship.
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Do POTUS' appoint the people who run the agencies/organizations within their admins or not? If you hire me and I eff up, does that not reflect on you as my manager? The Buck Stops with Them, as Harry Truman put it, correct?
They sure do, and the buck sure does. Whoever the POTUS is has responsibility - it's the folks below who are accountable. And so we go back to I wonder how we were SO unprepared for a lot more than 3 years. NYT (I think) had an article that did the NYT's very best to try and spread the responsibility over the last 20 years ... but inevitably it's politicized into just another "here's another reason Trump is awful" story. And yes, Trump is a narcissist who refuses to accept blame/responsibility for anything.
Right now - all we can do is "solve" the virus, and be prepared going forward.
As it's relevant to the thread though not current posts, I was wondering about what we've heard about restaurants selling household goods.
I randomly checked Applebees (I've never actually been to one) as I seem to remember they were one of those selling non-food and non-meal items, but I didn't see anything about it on their website.
Is there a place where there is more information about this? I would like to support them (restaurants, not Applebees specifically) if they have things I might get elsewhere.
As it's relevant to the thread though not current posts, I was wondering about what we've heard about restaurants selling household goods.
I randomly checked Applebees (I've never actually been to one) as I seem to remember they were one of those selling non-food and non-meal items, but I didn't see anything about it on their website.
Is there a place where there is more information about this? I would like to support them (restaurants, not Applebees specifically) if they have things I might get elsewhere.
Correct, Panera would also sell groceries I thought in addition to paper products. Some Subways are doing this also.
What is the basis and explanation of your assertion "a .02% risk of any harm"?
I think I calculated the high end in NC at 0.05% based on our 8% positive case rate and hospitalization/death rates.
The discord is over the only positions being "why did we do anything" - with your 80,000 deaths assertion - or "we have to do everything uniformly and shut down everything down 'indefinitely'". So the question actually becomes - in my opinion - why didn't we do the RIGHT thing? Why didn't "we" realize "This virus is horrible for 65+, those in congregate living and those with serious health issues" and expend our energy on THAT population - the nursing homes, the prisons, those who work in very close environments with prolonged exposure ("meatpackers")?
And surely, some quarantine was needed for a period of time not only to help the hospital system, but to assess the risks to the rest of the population.
And what about the issue of when we should all feel okay about sending kids back to school and having things like conferences, conventions, big indoor sporting events, and cruises? Do these people think we should just do all that right now or still hold off on things like that?
oh, we're a long way from putting 20K people in PNC, or ANY situation where social distancing is impossible in an enclosed environment.
But from the beginning, Wake County (as an example) took nearly 20% of the population out of the spread when we closed schools.
Why didn't "we" realize "This virus is horrible for 65+, those in congregate living and those with serious health issues" and expend our energy on THAT population - the nursing homes, the prisons, those who work in very close environments with prolonged exposure ("meatpackers")?
Its because, as a society, we don't value the elderly, the imprisoned, the brown people who work in meatpacking plants, etc. We prefer to shut them away, ignore them and pretend they don't exist, imo.
Last edited by Stede Bonnet; 05-14-2020 at 07:53 AM..
But from the beginning, Wake County (as an example) took nearly 20% of the population out of the spread when we closed schools.
Right, and having as many office workers telecommute as humanly possible helps a great deal too. And it at least keeps that part of the economy going without risking more deaths.
I just worry about the people pushing us to get back closer to normal simply because it's not so bad in the less densely populated areas, so they're under the false impression the virus just can't be bad here. It isn't bad here because our state has the sort of population density that large scale crowd control is possible, unlike in NYC. How bad it can quickly get here is still shown by the outbreaks in our prisons and meat processing plants (and nursing homes have been hit horribly all over the world) despite much lower levels of confirmed cases outside of those settings.
I think NC is on a sensible track now, gradually bringing more businesses back while also increasing testing and ramping up contact tracing and getting the message out to businesses and individuals about how to prevent unchecked spread.
Right, and having as many office workers telecommute as humanly possible helps a great deal too. And it at least keeps that part of the economy going without risking more deaths.
I just worry about the people pushing us to get back closer to normal simply because it's not so bad in the less densely populated areas, so they're under the false impression the virus just can't be bad here. It isn't bad here because our state has the sort of population density that large scale crowd control is possible, unlike in NYC. How bad it can quickly get here is still shown by the outbreaks in our prisons and meat processing plants (and nursing homes have been hit horribly all over the world) despite much lower levels of confirmed cases outside of those settings.
I think NC is on a sensible track now, gradually bringing more businesses back while also increasing testing and ramping up contact tracing and getting the message out to businesses and individuals about how to prevent unchecked spread.
your argument undermines your point. With a lockdown it still found its way to all the high density high proximity places.
I'm not saying lets start durham bulls games but restrictions need to be moderated.
Outdoor playground equipment closed in summer?
is that truly justified?
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). It doesn't really bash Trump so much personally as it really lays bare the ineptitude of the people he has put in place, which was his choice and he has to own that. Azar at HHS is a lobbyist, Redfield at CDC is most famous for trying to battle AIDS by saying "don't bone. Its naughty!", Hahn's never run an agency and was plopped down in the key agency in this (the FDA) what a month before all this hit? So a guy who has never run something like that makes sense to put in place right when this thing gets going (and you knew it was coming for the two months prior)?
