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Thanks SB. SO 10%, which if I recall the phase guidelines, is a little higher than they want it to be, but not disastrous like other states (AZ, TX, FL) are going through right now.
Do you have the % Positive tests (as part of total tests) number handy?
Saw some data last night mentioning NC at a 1.1 R0 (although not our area specifically). We don't seem to be taxing the medical infrastructure which is obviously great. Do wonder what a bit higher mask rate would get us.
we've been consistently 8-10% since 5/22.
I know I mentioned it several weeks ago, but we are still behind (7.4% to 8.9%) the US average on testing. Fortunately, we're even more behind (better) in case rate and death rate.
Thanks SB. SO 10%, which if I recall the phase guidelines, is a little higher than they want it to be, but not disastrous like other states (AZ, TX, FL) are going through right now.
yes, the WHO guidance is "below 10%". Of course, that was when hospitalizations were at a much higher rate.
Here is a site that estimates the R0. I don't know how accurate it is. NC seems to have hovered just above 1.0 for the last few weeks, according to them.
The problem with the hospitalization data from NC is that it doesn't show how many new hospitalizations there are each day. All we know is how many are in hospitalized on a given day. There are 915 currently hospitalized on 6/23. And there were 870 hospitalized on 6/22. But for all we know (extreme example for purpose of explanation), all 870 hospitalized on 6/22 were released, and we have 915 brand new cases today. Or on the other end, none of the 870 were released and we have 45 new cases today. So all we really know is that we have somewhere between 45 and 915 new hospitalizations today.
So for your example, we don't really know how many of the 22K cases reported during that time period needed hospitalization. It could be 300 or it could be many more. The hospitalization data they release is useful to see the number hospitalized at a given time, so they can estimate the strain on the system, but it would be nice to see a trend in new hospitalizations.
this is true of course. At the same time, the last # I saw was a 28-day average hospitalization. So even if it's 915 new hospitalizations over that 3 weeks of reporting, it's only a 4% hospitalization rate.
It certainly *seems like* since the hospital system wasn't overwhelmed, that they are now hospitalizing milder cases than before, and that the ICU beds are being used by "normal" recovering patients and not all COVID.
this is true of course. At the same time, the last # I saw was a 28-day average hospitalization. So even if it's 915 new hospitalizations over that 3 weeks of reporting, it's only a 4% hospitalization rate.
It certainly *seems like* since the hospital system wasn't overwhelmed, that they are now hospitalizing milder cases than before, and that the ICU beds are being used by "normal" recovering patients and not all COVID.
As of today's report there are 560 ICU beds open (23%), and like you said, people are still having other health issues, accidents, etc putting them in the ICU beyond Covid.
Also, when you look at 'state' data, it doesn't account for differences in various areas, e.g. what is the positive test percentage in Charlotte area versus The Triangle, or Winston-Salem, etc? It's a big state.
Between 6/18 (88% reporting) and 6/22 (91% reporting) ICU actually dropped 1. Overall ICUs are stable.
There is growth in general hospitalizations in Meck and Triangle. Hospital growth is mostly non-critical patients in the Triangle and Meck.
Triad on the 6/22 report actually showed a small decline in overall hospitalizations despite 100% of the hospitals in their group reporting. Overall Triad has been reporting fairly stable for a while.
For reference, the % reporting per date for ICU chart is 6/8 - 77%, 6/10 - 86%, 6/14 - 76%, 6/15 - 73%, 6/18 - 88%, 6/21 - 73%, 6/22 - 91%
The percent positive reported on the DHHS site is juiced data somehow. But juiced or not, the % has been relatively stable.
Between 6/18 (88% reporting) and 6/22 (91% reporting) ICU actually dropped 1. Overall ICUs are stable.
There is growth in general hospitalizations in Meck and Triangle. Hospital growth is mostly non-critical patients in the Triangle and Meck.
Triad on the 6/22 report actually showed a small decline in overall hospitalizations despite 100% of the hospitals in their group reporting. Overall Triad has been reporting fairly stable for a while.
For reference, the % reporting per date for ICU chart is 6/8 - 77%, 6/10 - 86%, 6/14 - 76%, 6/15 - 73%, 6/18 - 88%, 6/21 - 73%, 6/22 - 91%
The percent positive reported on the DHHS site is juiced data somehow. But juiced or not, the % has been relatively stable.
The tweet that m378 posted offers some insight into potential data accuracy challenges, but there are questions around how long negative estimations have been used and what the scope of the estimations is.
If you're planning to go to NY, NJ, or CT...don't...new 14-day quarantine rules for certain states that include NC.
How can they enforce it? Police at every highway entrance to each state? Plus staff at every airport. Who makes sure they self isolate?
Confused about this one.
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