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Right now it's definitely a seller's market because there isn't enough inventory. Is this because the boomers are staying put? Eventually they might downsize or e eventually pass away. Will this improve conditions for buyers?
1. The data show that, for now, Boomers are planning on aging in place.
2. The oldest Boomer is only 70. We all plan to live to 95 so you might have to wait 30+ years.
So, the answer to your question is YES. But, the time horizon is probably longer than you thinking.
I read a forecast a few years ago on investing and it suggested getting out of the rent business because we will some day have fewer people to live in all the apartments.
I also see a lot of people going into the medical profession and wonder if there will be enough patients for them to take care of when the boomers are gone. I see big changes ahead.
Funeral homes should be in high demand for at least 20 years is my personal opinion.
A lot of baby boomers really have no need to downsize. Thinking of my parents, aunts, uncles, friends' parents, etc... most are in a moderate sized home already. Under 2000 square feet. Some closer to the 1000 square feet range. Many have lived in the same house 20-40 years. I doubt they are going anywhere.
It almost wasn't until GenX started buying houses that they started growing in size.
A lot of Boomers are NOT downsizing at all. They talk about it, but then decide they want at least three bedrooms and three bathrooms for the grandkids etc etc, or maybe an entire separate carriage house for them yadayada, and don't forget the dedicated media room blahblah, or the "activity room" hoopityhoopity.
A lot of baby boomers really have no need to downsize. Thinking of my parents, aunts, uncles, friends' parents, etc... most are in a moderate sized home already. Under 2000 square feet. Some closer to the 1000 square feet range. Many have lived in the same house 20-40 years. I doubt they are going anywhere.
It almost wasn't until GenX started buying houses that they started growing in size.
Yeah, I kicked off my training wheels and said....I need a bigger place for my bike. Once that paper route money hit, I was golden.
The reality is that in later years, nobody was building 1000 sf homes anymore. Construction companies aren't dumb. People price things in $/sf for an area. So they made big home on same sized lots.
Back to the OP, I'd imagine the boomers are going to be split. The ones that made it won't be in a rush to downsize in droves that would affect the market. Many of the homes will be passed on, albeit potentially sold then. Some information that might be relevent is the number of reverse mortgages being done in an area.
I mean, almost anyone that bought their home in the 60's/70's has it paid off now and has gained significant equity since then. It's the home with the faults they know. I really expect little turnover until they pass.
What could happen is actually the reverse where there is pressure. As grandma and grandpa get financial pressures, they'll sell some modest home and parents will sell modest homes and the family unit will move in together in a bigger home. I've been seeing that happening anecdotally in the Bay Area here. $1.5M home is a lot more affordable when there's 4-6 incomes supporting it and one another.
Yeah, I kicked off my training wheels and said....I need a bigger place for my bike. Once that paper route money hit, I was golden.
The reality is that in later years, nobody was building 1000 sf homes anymore. Construction companies aren't dumb. People price things in $/sf for an area. So they made big home on same sized lots.
Back to the OP, I'd imagine the boomers are going to be split. The ones that made it won't be in a rush to downsize in droves that would affect the market. Many of the homes will be passed on, albeit potentially sold then. Some information that might be relevent is the number of reverse mortgages being done in an area.
I mean, almost anyone that bought their home in the 60's/70's has it paid off now and has gained significant equity since then. It's the home with the faults they know. I really expect little turnover until they pass.
What could happen is actually the reverse where there is pressure. As grandma and grandpa get financial pressures, they'll sell some modest home and parents will sell modest homes and the family unit will move in together in a bigger home. I've been seeing that happening anecdotally in the Bay Area here. $1.5M home is a lot more affordable when there's 4-6 incomes supporting it and one another.
Most BBs would not have been buying houses in the 60's or even most of the 70's. I didn't even graduate high school until the 80's as the youngest Boomer.
Most BBs would not have been buying houses in the 60's or even most of the 70's. I didn't even graduate high school until the 80's as the youngest Boomer.
Ranges vary with every source, but Baby Boomers are early/mid 40s-early 60s. Some sources cut at 1960, some as late as 1964.
So, the majority of Baby Boomers were buying their first homes in the 60s and 70s.
Houses didn't start growing until the 80s, coincidentally about the same time the first of the GenXers began entering the market.
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