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A lot of baby boomers really have no need to downsize. Thinking of my parents, aunts, uncles, friends' parents, etc... most are in a moderate sized home already. Under 2000 square feet. Some closer to the 1000 square feet range. Many have lived in the same house 20-40 years. I doubt they are going anywhere.
It almost wasn't until GenX started buying houses that they started growing in size.
Agreed! Baby boomers didn't buy the big homes that GenX did. My mom (a boomer) has been in her 900 sq ft condo for 20 years now with no plans on moving! This is also the generation that stays put for the most part. There will always be retirees that will move to warmer states, but I really don't think we will see a big shift in real estate by the boomers until they start to pass away and their families need to sell the properties.
You need to do a little math here. Those born in 1964 are now 53. Mid-40's is long gone. The first Boomers were buying houses in the later half of the 1960's (and that's assuming they bought a house in their early 20's). More bought in the 70's and 80's with those of us at the end buying into the 90's.
Being the sibling of 2 GenXers's, few of them were buying houses until the 90's. Those were first houses. Baby Boomers, according to the U.S. Census Bureau were 1/3 of the economy in the 90's and at their peak earning years. They were the move-up buyers.
FYI--Most sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau indicate Baby Boomers were born post WWII between 1946-1964. The oldest are now in entering their 70's. The youngest mid-50's.
Sorry it wasn't clear. I was referring to when they were BORN, not how old they are.
Although long term supply and demand conditions impact prices, economic conditions are the biggest driver of discretionary relocation. When consumer confidence is poor, more people stay put except for the '3 Ds' (death, divorce, debt). Markets can stagnate and low inventory does not always mean it's a seller's market.
So true. If the area lacks good jobs, low inventory is close to meaningless.
I read a forecast a few years ago on investing and it suggested getting out of the rent business because we will some day have fewer people to live in all the apartments.
In VEgas they are building apartments like they are going out of style
I also see a lot of people going into the medical profession and wonder if there will be enough patients for them to take care of when the boomers are gone. I see big changes ahead.
The millennials in number top baby boomers. Never mind the number of boomers dying every day. Starts at 50, can't tell you how many I have lost and I'm 60. Every decade weeds out more.
We are so behind on needed health care workers. Come to Vegas! Nurses and doctors will always have other options, working in the insurance industry, for attorneys, Pharm companies, Medical equipment and supplies. etc.
Funeral homes should be in high demand for at least 20 years is my personal opinion.
There are now many more options that a funeral. In fact I have not been to a tradition funeral since the 90's. More people are choosing to not use a funeral home. Going straight to cremation with a get together in a restaurant. I've even went to a get together in a comedy club. Funniest funeral I've ever been too!
Or many are just not having anything.
Wiser shoppers. Understand a tradition funeral is a way to get robbed.
I read somewhere recently that baby boomers are less likely to downsize in comparison to earlier generations. Apparently the 'minimum' downsize the surveyed boomers were considering was to somewhere 2000+sqft!
People are living a lot longer. We will see a lot more people living into their 100's and having a good quality of life. I don't even plan on retiring for another 35 years and I am 52 now. We love our home and don't want to sell it. Plan on buying a few more of them.
In California Proposition 13 keeps the property tax down. On my street we have a lot of retired people. Since we moved on the street almost 7 years ago our next door neighbor's wife past away in her 80's. Her husband died 6 month later. He was 87. Their daughter inherited the home. She is now 68 and lives in the home now. Down the street three other couples past away. One was in his 90's. The homes down the street have been sold and younger families bought them.
Next door on the other side the original owners gave the home to their grand daughter. She is in her mid 40's. Her husband and kids have lived in the home for over 10 years. I am thinking a lot of homes will be past down to family members, kids or grand kids. I know a guy I grew up with that ended up with three inherited homes from both his parents and his wifes parents. He also has three other rental homes plus he lives in the home he grew up in.
1. The data show that, for now, Boomers are planning on aging in place.
2. The oldest Boomer is only 70. We all plan to live to 95 so you might have to wait 30+ years.
So, the answer to your question is YES. But, the time horizon is probably longer than you thinking.
My father went to war in 1942. Before shipping out to the South Pacific, he came home on leave and I was born in 1943.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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Just closed on a 1000sft urban 2/2 condo. Hope to move there in 1-2 years from 1/4 acre with extensive garden, suburban 3/2, 1500sft home.
Retired. 67/70. We are competing with couples and young families for housing. Seattle area. One condo has a nice cash flow and a fair cap rate. The newly purchased condo is negative cash flow but perfect location and amenities. The intention is to move into this unit fairly soon and rent/sell existing home
Last edited by leastprime; 08-31-2017 at 04:59 PM..
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