Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Great news. When is your agent going to update the MLS to reflect that it is under contract?
She already did. Perhaps you're looking at the wrong one. Also, there is a 48hr kick-out as our close is contingent on the CLOSE (under contract) of their home. We welcome more showings, in case.
Last edited by fairmarketvalue; 06-25-2008 at 07:56 PM..
Reason: Added possible explanation
I agree that Chicago may see bottom price-wise to 2002 levels, 2001 levels if things get really bad. Most economists are forecasting nationally we will see bottom price-wise spring of 2009 but please note that this keeps getting pushed back.
I will be interested to see what the forecast from the NAR for homes says when it comes out tomorrow. Last year they forecast 2% gain in existing prices (all I care about as I am not looking to buy new). Earlier this year, they forecast 2% drop. Last month's forecast showed 6.7% decrease in prices. I will be curious to see that % decrease they are forecasting tomorrow.
I don't put much weight in these numbers other than that they give a good general barometer for how housing is doing.
Humbolt....the most fasinating part of this is that they are all using the same source data, the MLS. NAR is a well connected trade association for brokers. Their stance impacts broader finance markets. No way can they come out and say, "it probably sucks to be you, right now". And so, they tend to make pollyanna statements.
The absorbtion rates for any given area tell the real story. And no one knows the absorbtion rates for any area, better than NAR.
You said you refinanced multiple times but forgot to mention when and at what rates. That might affect the calculations of total interest paid during your stay in the house a bit, both from changes in interest rate and resetting the amortization schedule since interest tends to be front loaded. The continuing insults because you think your MBA makes you superior to everyone else out there are cute, but are especially amusing when you miss simple facts like this.
I said we refied twice! The interst rates we paid on the home went from 7.25(99) to 6.45(2001) to 5.95(2003). There's your amortization. I already took the average and changed the #'s on the chart @ 6.5 as suggested by another poster. It didn't change much. I also disclosed that we made, in minimum paymentsalone, approx 200,000 in over 9 years which includes p&I, taxes and ins. We also paid down the mortgage when we felt like it, both monthly and when we refied the last time. Every time I answer your questions or defend your accusations, you do not respond to the topic but change it instead, raising another arguement. Is it so important for you to try and be right? MY SITUATION is in black and white, SO BETTER FOR OUR FAMILY IN EVERY WAY, to own, invest, and own. My MBA does not make me superior or cute, nor do I aspire to be. The only one missing simple facts is YOU. I explained how it is a great tax benefit, especially since we owned 2 homes for 3 mo. in 07 and 9 mo in 08. And this is just a SMALL piece of the puzzle that fits. The point here is that all that money, no matter what how much, went to US and the home, not someone else. We'll get it back and then some. Sorry you just don't seem to get it. I think most do.
By the way, someone asked what the "benefit" of putting 40% down on a home would be? The people who bought ours put down 30%, which is a huge chunk of money. Perhaps they did it for the same reasons we do. Less monthly obligations, live below means, and the ability to put their money in something that is an appreciatable asset. Another example of simple math. I'm sure they'll stay in it for quite a while. If you have the cash, why not put it in a house? Others gave examples of how glad they were they got out of the stock market in time and put it in their homes, when the stock market went bad. How is this any different? Again, no predictions on a sure thing but historically speaking, real estate is a safe place to lay your money, if you live in it and are staying a reasonalbe amount of time. I'm sure a bank CD is about as safe as you can get where investing is concerned. Wow, what great rates they return, if you leave them alone, that is.
Never agree on what? I have no idea what is going to happen with your house, I don't even know where you live.
Quote:
I'm just curious, since prices will continue to plunckett, where does that leave the low end homes, will they be free at some point? Just curious.
Are you serious? Really? This is just....ugh. Yes because prices will continue further then they already have they will be free...huh?!? Obvious at some point the prices will bottom out. A bottom will be formed approximately at the point where you can easily generate positive cash flow from real estate. Since the market is weak the amount of positive cash flow will have to be decent to make up for the risk of declining values. Most areas in California aren't close to this yet, although some heavy hit areas are 10~20% away.
Quote:
It's easy to say you predicted something when your looking backwards.
Except I predicated it way before it collapsed.....
Quote:
The housing bubble collapse advocates were talking about it since the late nineties... and of course eventually it would of popped.
Like who? There was no housing bubble in the late 90's in California. The prices were in line with historic norms, with the possible exception of the bay area.
Quote:
What signs are we looking for?
Changes in lending conditions, in particular new and exotic forms of lending.
Quote:
I'm confident that prices will rebound...
Because you seem to misunderstand the anatomy of an asset bubble. Asset bubbles are always created by changes in credit conditions, that is credit becomes available in some sort of new and exotic matter. The housing bubble in the US was not caused by increases in population, increases in GDP or other factors of that nature. Rather it was a classic asset bubble caused by new and exotic lending. Because of this real prices will NOT rebound unless there is another credit bubble. But this is unlikely to happen any time soon as new regulations are being written to prevent just that. Prices will rebound though, but they it will just be inflation. If you purchased a home in 2006 for $500k and sell it for $500k in 2016 you've lost a lot of money as $500k in 2016 isn't worth as much as it was in 2006. Anyhow, I not so sure why this is so hard to understand. But these are the facts. At this point its hard to dispute the cause of the housing bubble.
Quote:
the guys at Moody's baseline prediction shows a housing bottom in Spring '09.
Honestly I haven't even found an article where they predict this....if you can find it please link it.
I said we refied twice! The interst rates we paid on the home went from 7.25(99) to 6.45(2001) to 5.95(2003). There's your amortization. I already took the average and changed the #'s on the chart @ 6.5 as suggested by another poster. It didn't change much. I also disclosed that we made, in minimum paymentsalone, approx 200,000 in over 9 years which includes p&I, taxes and ins. We also paid down the mortgage when we felt like it, both monthly and when we refied the last time.
I see, even more data you left out.
My initial point was that you were putting about as much towards interest, taxes and insurance as someone who was renting. I didn't know that you put 40% down, which changes things a bit, but as others have mentioned, you have to include an appropriate opportunity cost there as well.
So anyway, you paid about $200,000 in 9 years in just minimum payments. From what I can see, that's a bit of a low estimate, especially if you occasionally paid more than the minimum, since that would barely cover the taxes plus interest on a loan at 6.5% for 9 years, and not including insurance or principle or additional payments.
So, $200,000 in 9 years = 1850 a month in fees that don't go directly to pay off the mortgage balance. At 6% annual return on your down payment, add in about $800 a month. And then we need to figure out how much you added to improve the house - if it averaged more than $150 a month or so, you put out as much money as someone renting.
Sure, you'll want to take taxes out of that. I guess we can ignore extra you paid to the loan balance and call it a wash.
Now I understand that you bought at the start of one of the largest price run ups in US real estate history, and thus you were able to get that money back, but just barely. Does that really make you confident enough that buying is the right choice for everyone now, as your previous comments seem to indicate? I know it worked for you, but the way you attack renters ("throwing money away", "paying someone else's mortgage", assuming they are unsophisticated with taxes and other finances, and so on) it looks like you think that anyone who rents is stupid. Not sure if that's what you intend, but the way you lash out at anyone who dares to question your wisdom sure makes it look that way.
Quote:
If you have the cash, why not put it in a house?
Because with interest rates as low as they are (and even lower for people like you where the tax advantage is nearly perfect) you can expect to make a lot more return elsewhere. That, and having cash available is far more flexible than tying it up in a house, especially now that lenders are figuring out that HELOCs are going to bankrupt them if they don't stop issuing them.
Any you guys need a heart transplant? I've got an online MD...
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
