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Old 12-07-2023, 06:43 PM
 
7,789 posts, read 3,803,815 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kavm View Post
Dick Thaler was at Cornell in 1994 not Chicago.
Thanks. He won the Nobel when he was at Chicago Booth.
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Old 12-07-2023, 10:50 PM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
8,164 posts, read 5,657,641 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
i was on our 401k committee at work .

we had excellent choices as well as vanguard and fidelity index funds thru voya
The quality of choices in 401k plans can really really differ from company to company. My niece's husband worked for a big name pharmaceutical company and his available choices were really miserable. On the other hand, my niece worked for a local law firm and her choices were excellent.
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Old 12-07-2023, 11:41 PM
 
106,653 posts, read 108,790,719 times
Reputation: 80143
Quote:
Originally Posted by moguldreamer View Post
The example above does not include any investor behaviour.



Then you didn't understand my post above.



Then you didn't understand my post above .



As noted above, the first step is for the investor to determine the level of risk they are willing to incur, and that varies from person to person, and can be difficult to obtain. Numerous risk profile surveys have been verified that do a reasonable job across large numbers of people, but any individual person can be irrational.



As I said above, the first step is to determine the level of risk the investor is willing to accept.




That's orthogonal to my post.


That is orthogonal to my post.



I'm not surprised.
then you didn’t understand my post because the actual facts and how things have played out say 100% equities has beaten balanced portfolios over every typical accumulation period forever .

it is the best way to grow one’s money .

stomach for risk is about investor behavior .

data shows those who have less tolerance for risk don’t exhibit any better staying power in more conservative balanced portfolios as they just have lower trigger points exhibiting bad behavior.

so reality and real life says if one has a low pucker factor get someone else in the drivers seat .

and that is all one needs to know
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Old 12-08-2023, 06:04 AM
 
3,260 posts, read 1,413,010 times
Reputation: 3692
Quote:
Originally Posted by moguldreamer View Post
The example above does not include any investor behaviour.



Then you didn't understand my post above.



Then you didn't understand my post above .



As noted above, the first step is for the investor to determine the level of risk they are willing to incur, and that varies from person to person, and can be difficult to obtain. Numerous risk profile surveys have been verified that do a reasonable job across large numbers of people, but any individual person can be irrational.



As I said above, the first step is to determine the level of risk the investor is willing to accept.




That's orthogonal to my post.


That is orthogonal to my post.



I'm not surprised.
Some folks are more concerned about what they are going to say/write next as opposed to listening (or reading) to what others have shared.
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Old 12-08-2023, 06:51 AM
 
106,653 posts, read 108,790,719 times
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my comment addressed exactly what was said about the supposed efficient frontier theory as it applies in real life and dollars and cents

One very noticeable drawback is the assumption that individuals act as Rational Economic Men (REM).

We are not optimizing an utility function in our everyday decisions, finding the best match to our necessities.

Behavioral Finance has really interesting insights about this.

Markowitz work assumes investors are rísk-averse, when we can actually be risk-neutral or risk-seeking, or all of them depending on the situation.

The decision making process can be flawed because of emotional and cognitive biases.which is why investor behavior is a big factor as i said .

most small investors would do better being kept out of the drivers seat and just let a total market or s&p fund run for their accumulation stage

https://proactiveadvisormagazine.com...00%25%20equity.

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-08-2023 at 07:03 AM..
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Old 12-08-2023, 07:25 AM
 
7,789 posts, read 3,803,815 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
then you didn’t understand my post
Your post was orthogonal to mine. You keep pointing to investor behaviour which has nothing to do with my post.

Question: what do investor behaviour, the color of the sky, the freezing point of water and the air speed of an unladen swallo0ew have in common?

Answer: they are orthogonal to the discussion of 100% equities not being on the efficient frontier.

Stop bringing up investor behaviour as a counter to my post, because it is orthogonal.

Feel free to talk about investor behavior all you want - it is an important and fascinating topic - but it in no way is a counter to my post that 100% equities is NOT on the efficient frontier.

Let me try a simple graph that speaks for itself, plotting the returns over time of 100% bonds, 60/40 stocks/bonds, 100% bonds -- and the winner, levered 60/40 stock/bonds.


Last edited by moguldreamer; 12-08-2023 at 07:37 AM..
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Old 12-08-2023, 07:31 AM
 
106,653 posts, read 108,790,719 times
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we can argue this all day .

who cares .

the bottom line is needing to compound the bits and pieces most of us are able to save over our accumulation stage as best as we can and that is best done with 100% equity funds , the end.

there is no financial logical sense to using bonds .

there are very few small investors that are going to get involved with leveraged portfolios .

it’s almost a moot point to the typical person trying to grow their money via a 401k which is what this thread is about .

anyone here have leveraged funds in their 401k ?


for most of us retiring , risk vs reward comes much later when risk vs reward and capital preservation become important.

that is the real world logic

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-08-2023 at 07:45 AM..
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Old 12-08-2023, 07:34 AM
 
7,789 posts, read 3,803,815 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
my comment addressed exactly what was said about the supposed efficient frontier theory
Incorrect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
One very noticeable drawback is the assumption that individuals act as Rational Economic Men (REM).
Orthogonal, as is the rest of your comment.

The rationality or fallibility of individual investors does not affect the efficient frontier.
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Old 12-08-2023, 07:38 AM
 
106,653 posts, read 108,790,719 times
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exactly my point .

the efficient frontier theory neglects the most important basic aspect of investing , human behavior and human actions

that is what is wrong with it.

but in any case , how many have leveraged funds in their 401k ? it’s really not even a point that needs to be in a 401k discussion

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-08-2023 at 07:47 AM..
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Old 12-08-2023, 07:44 AM
 
7,789 posts, read 3,803,815 times
Reputation: 14709
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
we can argue this all day .
If you come up with an argument that a 100% equities portfolio is on the efficient frontier, I'm all ears.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the bottom line is needing to compound the bits and pieces most of us are able to save over our accumulation stage as best as we can and that is best done with 100% equity funds , the end.
Incorrect. The mathematics is incontrovertible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
there is no financial logical sense to using bonds .
Incorrect. The mathematics is incontrovertible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
there are very few small investors that are going to get involved with leveraged portfolios .
A) Orthogonal to the question of 100% equity portfolio not being on the efficient frontier.
B) Incorrect, as every individual investor who simultaneously has a residential mortgage and and investment portfolio is employing leverage.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
it’s almost a moot point to the typical person trying to grow their money via a 401k which is what this thread is about .
Orthogonal to the question of a 100% equity portfolio not being on the efficient frontier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
for most of us retiring so vs reward comes much later when risk vs reward and capital preservation become important.
Orthogonal to the question of 100% equities portfolio not being on the efficient frontier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
that is the real world logic
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