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I know what call center metrics are. I've worked at call centers doing various jobs. Fortunately, only one involved me talking on the phones.
I all three call centers an employee complained and things were straightened out fairly quick. The problem was usually the result of some retard they hired for a manager or supervisor who didn't have a clue that we have quite a few more labor laws than the minimum wage.
I think it's a matter of keeping everything in perspective. Sacramento is in a tough position right now. Is it as bad as some say? Probably not. Is it as simple as chalking it up to growing pains? Probably not. I'd guess it's somewhere in between - probably a bit worse than the national average in terms of the scale, but it's still relative. I think the nation as a whole has work to do to reinvent ourselves.
Are a lot of jobs leaving CA? Sure they are. Are they leaving for other states? Some are, but many are also leaving the country. No state is going to be the low cost labor capital. Texas is one of the latest temporary hot spots, but at some point they'll see the jobs leave too. American employees are much more expensive than those in other countries. We demand higher pay and we're seeing that a global economy isn't always going to support those higher wages. Our higher cost of living and quality of life will continue to work against us in the global economy. That's just life. We'll have to adapt and learn to create more products and services that are embraced around the world, and at a competitive price. That's the key - America has to figure out ways to be competitive globally in almost every industry. Otherwise, outsourcing will always be around the corner.
How does this relate to Sacramento? The area will have to diversify a little more and adapt to lower wages for various fields - real estate development obviously can't be depended on as much as it once was. I still see an opportunity for self employed/contractors since more businesses are contracting out to replace full time employees for various services - especially in high tech and other service-oriented fields. But even then it's going to be tough. Employer benefits are becoming a thing of the past. Health insurance is just too expensive for employers to keep offering. We're going to have to get used to the idea of individual health care plans - which I'm glad more people will be joining in the fight to make more affordable. Welcome to my world.
Where most people see doom and gloom, others see opportunity. I think there are still tough times ahead for the region but I think many will find ways to make it through and help reinvent not only themselves, but the region, and in turn, the nation. And I think this will be a trend throughout the nation. Maybe I'm an optimist, but I also know that CA is full of some pretty innovative people. And that should help.
I think it's a matter of keeping everything in perspective. Sacramento is in a tough position right now. Is it as bad as some say? Probably not. Is it as simple as chalking it up to growing pains? Probably not. I'd guess it's somewhere in between - probably a bit worse than the national average in terms of the scale, but it's still relative. I think the nation as a whole has work to do to reinvent ourselves.
Are a lot of jobs leaving CA? Sure they are. Are they leaving for other states? Some are, but many are also leaving the country. No state is going to be the low cost labor capital. Texas is one of the latest temporary hot spots, but at some point they'll see the jobs leave too. American employees are much more expensive than those in other countries. We demand higher pay and we're seeing that a global economy isn't always going to support those higher wages. Our higher cost of living and quality of life will continue to work against us in the global economy. That's just life. We'll have to adapt and learn to create more products and services that are embraced around the world, and at a competitive price. That's the key - America has to figure out ways to be competitive globally in almost every industry. Otherwise, outsourcing will always be around the corner.
How does this relate to Sacramento? The area will have to diversify a little more and adapt to lower wages for various fields - real estate development obviously can't be depended on as much as it once was. I still see an opportunity for self employed/contractors since more businesses are contracting out to replace full time employees for various services - especially in high tech and other service-oriented fields. But even then it's going to be tough. Employer benefits are becoming a thing of the past. Health insurance is just too expensive for employers to keep offering. We're going to have to get used to the idea of individual health care plans - which I'm glad more people will be joining in the fight to make more affordable. Welcome to my world.
Where most people see doom and gloom, others see opportunity. I think there are still tough times ahead for the region but I think many will find ways to make it through and help reinvent not only themselves, but the region, and in turn, the nation. And I think this will be a trend throughout the nation. Maybe I'm an optimist, but I also know that CA is full of some pretty innovative people. And that should help.
I really like your post and want to believe that somehow we can reinvent ourselves, but I think what is probably going to happen is that we will move towards a two-tier system in this country of two classes--the rich and the lower class which will consist of the working poor up through what is now considered the lower class.
The problem is that without without manufacturing, there can be no middle-class. When the "next big thing" comes, it will not be manufactured in the U.S. It many not even be engineered in the U.S.
What industries do you think are growing faster? To my knowledge there is no growth now whatsoever in manufacturing in this country. In fact, it declines every year.
There are tremendous numbers of skilled IT workers in this country that have been laid off. What about these people? Why can't they find jobs if it's just a matter of people not having the skills? What should they retrain themselves to be? Many have four year degrees in computer science and even masters degrees. If this is not enough training, what additional training do you propose that they get?
You know what you are talking about. Many industries have come in gone in the US and we can't keep assuming some "High-Tech" industry is going to save the US. Unfortunatley, the high-tech jobs are the easiest to outsource. If it can go over a wire it can be outsourced quickly and easily. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think this was the order:
-US was once a big exporter of textiles- gone.
-US was once a big steel exporter- very little of that goes on in the US anymore compared to what it once was.
-US was once a big manufacturing industry- it certainly took a big hit after NAFTA and looks to be on life support in many states like CA.
-IT/ High-Tech industry- certainly a lot of out of work IT guys and doesn't look to be getting better anytime soon.
I myself do not see some new high-tech industry to come along and save us. We need to get back to manufacturing ASAP and encourage growth in that area. CA's last automotive plants in Freeport are going to close soon. You would have to be certifiably nuts to start or expand a business here. And the problem is certainly that there is not enough educated and experienced people in any of the above industries. Any time there is a job opening now HR departments get buried with resumes and portfolios.
The most recent numbers for the high school graduating class of 2008 is that 68.6% had enrolled in college (although yes, many may drop out or stop at an AA).
Even with future retirements that is a lot of good jobs that need to be created in the next few years for those skills.
And don't forget the number of foreign students being hired by US companies to work here. Then there is outsourcing, etc.
I should have rephrased that. The majority hasn't graduated from college or grad school, but that doesn't change my basic point. When the majority of the population lacks the skills for high level knowledge work, they aren't in a position to compete or fill those types of jobs either.
Employment growth is in part limited by the skills of your workforce. Housing costs are much cheaper in Yuba City than Nevada City. Both towns are fairly small. One of the big reasons employers hiring people to make video equipment locate in Nevada City but not in Yuba City is that the local labor force in Nevada City is much better educated and much more skilled than in Yuba City. In Yuba City only 17.6% of the population has a bachelors degree or higher, in Nevada City, 35.7% has a bachelors degree or higher. In Yuba City the best jobs are in the Air Force, farming, trucking and warehousing, because that is the type of employment the locals are qualified to handle. The reason unemployment is much less in Nevada City (11.8%) than in Yuba City (18.8%) is that Nevada City isn't really competing with the Yuba Cities of the world for the same types of employment.
What industries do you think are growing faster? To my knowledge there is no growth now whatsoever in manufacturing in this country. In fact, it declines every year.
There are tremendous numbers of skilled IT workers in this country that have been laid off. What about these people? Why can't they find jobs if it's just a matter of people not having the skills? What should they retrain themselves to be? Many have four year degrees in computer science and even masters degrees. If this is not enough training, what additional training do you propose that they get?
Again look at the job growth for these industries. IT is still growing. There is expected to be 489K jobs created between 2006 and 2016 in computer systems design and related services.
The local economy in IT may be screwed up, but that just means that some people may need to move elsewhere to places where employment in this field is stronger.
What industries do you think are growing faster? To my knowledge there is no growth now whatsoever in manufacturing in this country. In fact, it declines every year.
I agree here. Because of productivity improvements manufacturings share of employment keeps falling, even though its share of GDP stays roughly the same. This is why I think manufacturing probably isn't a good industry to worry to much about attracting. The regions that historically have been the most dependent on manufacturing for employment, (Detroit, Cleveland, Youngstown, etc) are all in long term decline and have been in decline during my entire life. Does this region really want to be the next Detroit?
Again look at the job growth for these industries. IT is still growing. There is expected to be 489K jobs created between 2006 and 2016 in computer systems design and related services.
The local economy in IT may be screwed up, but that just means that some people may need to move elsewhere to places where employment in this field is stronger.
489K IT jobs in the whole U.S. over 10 years is only about 50k jobs per year over a ten year period. That's not really very many. And the problem with out of work IT guys is all over the country, not just CA.
Also, because of this recession, employment is supposed to be flat for at least the next four years. I don't think that is factored into the projection.
The technology and professional services sector in Sacramento region alone has lost over 10,000 jobs over the last year, according the report that was the original subject of this thread.
According to the link employment in internet publishing and broadcasting is supposed to grow by 44% from 2006 - 2016. Perhaps you would be better served by looking there.
I should have rephrased that. The majority hasn't graduated from college or grad school, but that doesn't change my basic point. When the majority of the population lacks the skills for high level knowledge work, they aren't in a position to compete or fill those types of jobs either.
One of the problems with knowledge work is that much of it is easily sent to the lowest cost location. As the rest of the world also develops high skills but at a lower cost it becomes a competitor for those jobs and that work.
For example, besides programming there are US individual tax returns outsourced to India by US CPA firms. Other knowledge work that is also being done in India now includes legal research, With Times Tight, Even Lawyers Get Outsourced - WSJ.com
or reading medical tests like X-Rays, etc.
Of course, it is not just India. Anywhere with the right skills at a lower cost for equivalent quality becomes a potential competitor for knowledge jobs because it is easy to move the workload around. Even on-shoring in the US will continue to impact higher cost regions as it already does.
I don't expect all US knowledge work to move overseas but it will impact the US either in reduced job creation or by putting downward pressure on US salaries in some of those higher paying fields.
Jobs that require face-to-face or hands-on work locally are much harder to outsource. So they are growth areas in the US. Unfortunately they many times are lower paying jobs.
I'm not a total pessimist about the US job future. But unless our work ethics and view of jobs and work change we will find ourselves facing a tough future. We have to relearn how to work hard and also how to compete, not just increase skills.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbo15
One of the big reasons employers hiring people to make video equipment locate in Nevada City
But that is something that can change quickly, we never know. If a company or its competitors can do the same for less elsewhere it changes the game.
Here in the Fresno/Clovis area, Pelco (a commerical security system company founded here, you see their cameras and systems in casinos, government buildings, etc.) announced layoffs yesterday of 100 out of 1800 local employees due to the US recession. BUT it also announced it is opening a new operation in China due to increased product demand there and to get around China's 30% import duty on the products.
That raises the question if those laid-off will be rehired in the future or will some of the products simply be imported from China when demand picks up in the US. The company says they will rehire but we will have to see, it is all about what makes the most sense to their bottom line at that time.
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