It's real estate bottomed out and rebounding in this area of Florida? (Sarasota: condo, mortgages)

[siestachica]

Foreclosure filings up, but no 2009-style deluge foreseen | HeraldTribune.com

Interesting article about local foreclosure fillings

[MartinEden99]

Originally Posted by downthrust

The BIG point that you are missing in your above statement is that incomes are stagnant and actually falling. Add in the higher prices of food, fuel, etc and this compounds the income downward spiral.

Historically yes.. Inflation means higher incomes which leads to higher home prices. We are in a time of the things you NEED to buy too live are inflating in price.. But the things your OWN are deflating in price.. Ie.. Houses.

Stagflation!... you can not compare today to the past 30 years.. Its a whole new world of printed money today!

Just give it 6 months.. Watch the new inventory that will be coming to market. Oh and btw.. Banks are trying to stop investors from flipping distressed properties.. So if investors are going to have a harder time buying reo properties.. Watch out! That means homesteaders will need to pick up the slack.. And we already know that the majority of home purchase these past two years are from investors.

I think you're talking about something completely different than I am.

I'm not talking about the smalltime investor who finances houses & flips them. That smalltime investor is not the one deciding between Euro futures & real estate to the degree that has substantial market impact.

I'm talking about the place where "wages" are not stagnant at all. Investment companies that pool resources of top 1% incomes. Those wages are certainly NOT stagnant.

You're right about the world not being the same place as 30 years ago. 30 years ago, the top 1% would not have nearly as much capital to pool together and drive markets to such massive booms & busts. They were counter-balanced by the majority of "commoners" who did not react as wildly or speculatively.

I'm not really putting it out there that way to incite a debate on wealth inequality but just pointing out that us "commoners" and our collective wages are not nearly as impacting as the top 1% of pooled investments that actually drive markets up/down. Right, wrong, or indifferent...its the new reality.

So, to bring this back to the point I was trying to make. The substantive investors will (imho) put their resources into real estate when/if the Euro becomes less of a safe investment in order to stave off the inflation. The 2007-2009 real estate bubble popping is the exception rather than the rule, regarding where they put their money. Real estate moving forward will be much closer to overall inflation (not to be confused with CPI, mind you) at this point and I believe investors will see it that way as well.

Just because a bubble pops doesn't mean the asset class will always go down compared to inflation.

[loves2read]

any post with three ! usually is guilty of overreacting to something....

[downthrust]

Originally Posted by loves2read

any post with three ! usually is guilty of overreacting to something....

time will tell :-)

[Sunshine Rules]

Great post Martin, you make some very good points.

I happened to catch an interview on one of the cable news channels on Friday with a former Morgan Stanley analyst. He believes the next wave of foreclosures will not create a free for all in the market because the banks are managing foreclosures much more carefully now than in the past, releasing them into the market in a more timely manner so as not to further erode home prices.

You can find evidence of that in our own local real estate market. Banks are now more likely to have foreclosure homes painted, new carpet and appliances installed to attract higher prices. Many REOs are coming on the market at prices closer to current market, or they are priced to attract bidding wars which end up in a final price that is closer to current market prices.

I think we may see more short sale listings in the next couple of months as homeowners that are upside down on their mortgages start to realize that unless Congress extends the deadline through legislation, the tax breaks that homeowners currently receive on the balance "forgiven" in a short sale by the lien holders through the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act will go away after 12/31/12 and homeowners may, depending on tax bracket, owe income taxes on that forgiven debt on sales completed after the deadline.

[downthrust]

Housing Repenetrates Alleged Bottom As NAHB Index Misses By Most In 22 Months
Housing Repenetrates Alleged Bottom As NAHB Index Misses By Most In 22 Months | ZeroHedge

oppsss..

and

Homebuilder Outlook Plunges, Reversing Spring Rebound
News Headlines

oppss again..


hmmm... is it possible that as the first quarter leaves us that things sink again as they have done in the last 3 years??? sounds like it..

[FLSnowbirds]

Nope

[loves2read]

I hope not cause we just completed contract to buy house in Nokomis--
I want some rising home values now that my price is locked in....

[yellowsky]

Congratulations, Loves2read!
I shouldn't worry about falling values. Anecdotal observation here in NP and PC sees fewer new listings all the time and houses flying off the shelf once they appear.
I wish you happy in your new house.

[loves2read]

There was another offer on house we bought--and it was only on market shoet time...