It's real estate bottomed out and rebounding in this area of Florida? (Sarasota: rent, house prices)

[gettinoutofjersey]

Originally Posted by Texabama

The shadow inventory will not be a flood hitting the market. The Robo-signing days are over.

As far as N.E. area boomers not able to unload their houses, well, many have been living in the same home for a long period of time (i.e. paid off), I'm sure many will price to move. Also, many live in large metro areas where the economy is doing better than the national average.

not so sure about houses paid off. many used the equity to increase their standard of living of progressively increased the value of their house by trading up. made sense at the time. also many of the should have been retirees lost their butt in the stock market thru 401k's. kind of a double whamy. we lived in a larger metro area and when we check back on house sales they have really dropped in price. in many cases that drop has eaten up any equity.

all we can do is hope change is around the corner.

[Obrero]

Originally Posted by downthrust

Your prior comment about never the right time to buy I fully understand why you say this. I'm just trying to deploy my long saved cash into the market at the right time. Back in 2005 when I bought my home in the north east, all you heard from the news, realtors, etc. was buy buy buy because real estate was so hot and never going to drop. Boy was I foolish to listen to that junk, I bought, now I'm massively under water.
I am doing MUCH more research this time around as to try and avoid those mistakes.

Now regarding the banks and the shadow inventory.. What a banker friend of mine told me is that the banks do not have to count the houses with unpaid loans on their books. They get to mark these houses at a much higher value until they are actually sold. Once sold as reo, then the bank must show the loss.

The banks balance sheets are completely toast if they had to mark all these default loans correctly. So by the banks holding back they are able to use crazy accounting schemes to make their books look much better then they really are.

Now there is coming a wave of more reo homes to hit the market. They have to because more and more NEW bad loans keep coming in. People are STILL defaulting on their homes for the FIRST time.. the longer the job market stays weak, the more and more people that ever into delinquency for the first time.

The scary part of this now is that the new delinquent folks are mainly holding conventional 30 year fixed mortgages.. Whereas back in 2008 most the defaulters had sub prime mortgages. So the new defaulters are actually folks who got into homes with proper income, now lost their jobs or are working lower paying jobs, all the while inflation eats away their disposable income they have per month. So they have to decide what bills to pay first... Car loans, credit cards, mortgage? Must are putting mortgage last on the list...when historically mortgage was always put first... So it's a completely new way of the American household budget priorities..
People are keeping their credit cards because they need the credit access to buy food, clothing, essentials... They need a car to get them places.. Their homes they figure they can live in for free for 2 years, and uncle Sam will be there with principal reductions eventually... So now it's become a moral hazard which is spreading to many folks who would have never defaulted prior on their homes. I know of many folks who CAN afford their mortgages whom are now "throwing in the towel" because they feel the banks/ government won't help them unless they stop paying their mortgage.
THAT FACT is what troubles me the most when looking at a housing recovery scenario.

you are correct that markets are very local.. But once inflation (hyper inflation) hits us.. It will affect all of us, anyone that hold usa currency.
Stayed tuned over the next 2 weeks for another federal reserve money printing program.. Operation twist (qe3) ends in early June.. I am expecting a MASSIVE Fed and ECB announcement of more money printing very shortly! New printed money = higher prices for food, gasoline.. And lower value for those bucks you have in the bank.

But if your (hyper) inflation hits...the best thing you can have is low interest fixed debt...

[downthrust]

Hyper inflation will make home prices plummet..
So what good is a low interest rate if your equity vanishes?

I'd much rather hold gold than a house and rent instead

[Obrero]

Originally Posted by downthrust

Hyper inflation will make home prices plummet..
So what good is a low interest rate if your equity vanishes?

I'd much rather hold gold than a house and rent instead

So rent already if you think this will happen. I planned to rent down there but it actually worked out cheaper to buy when I crunched the numbers.

[IamCheap]

USA hyper inflation? sounds good but not going to happen as long the Euro is worst, and China is holding gazillions USD.
Everyone is kicking the can further down the road, buying more time...

[RetiredBuckeye]

So what's going on with condo sales in the Sarasota-Bradenton area? Are condos sales still depressed or are they starting to move again?

[bbronston]

Originally Posted by RetiredBuckeye

So what's going on with condo sales in the Sarasota-Bradenton area? Are condos sales still depressed or are they starting to move again?

Per your request: Sarasota Association of Realtors® - SAR News

April sales report just came out today!

[yellowsky]

Just in:

Existing Home Sales Rise

[wondermint2]

Surge in Sarasota County home sales continues | HeraldTribune.com (click for full article)

"Prices did not rise and, perhaps because of that, the surge in existing-home sales continued in April as real estate agents in the Sarasota market set another seven-year high by selling 886 single-family homes and condominiums.

Condos led the selling frenzy with 26 percent more changing hands in April than in March. When compared with a year ago, condo sales are up 31 percent.

In the Sarasota market, the total number of homes sold in April was the highest it has been since August 2005, when 908 homes changed hands."

[downthrust]

this is great news! just curious though.. why didn't prices rise if sales are up 30%?

Originally Posted by wondermint2

Surge in Sarasota County home sales continues | HeraldTribune.com (click for full article)

"Prices did not rise and, perhaps because of that, the surge in existing-home sales continued in April as real estate agents in the Sarasota market set another seven-year high by selling 886 single-family homes and condominiums.

Condos led the selling frenzy with 26 percent more changing hands in April than in March. When compared with a year ago, condo sales are up 31 percent.

In the Sarasota market, the total number of homes sold in April was the highest it has been since August 2005, when 908 homes changed hands."