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Funny how the stock market almost always goes up in a presidential election year. But IMO look out below AFTER the election is over. Generally real estate will follow the stock market (and the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy):
"Research has shown that the stock market tends to go up during a presidential election year.
Ned Davis Research long ago identified a presidential stock market cycle. Returns during the first year of a presidential term average about 5 percent. Gains in the second year average only 4 percent. But the third year typically sees a jump of 12 percent, and the fourth year (the presidential election year) brings a further 8 percent gain.
Applying the presidential cycle theory, 2012 should be a good year for stock investing. And so far it has been correct.
A study by Marshall Nickles of Pepperdine University concluded that bear markets typically bottom during the midterm congressional elections, then rise during a president's third and fourth years in office.
Nickles tested data from 1952 through 2000 and found that an investor who bought stocks and held them for the first two years of presidential terms, then sold them, would have made money six times and lost money seven times. In the end, he would have lost nearly half his money.
An investor who bought and held stocks in the second half of presidential terms, and then sold on the day the presidents were inaugurated, would have made money every time, for an overall gain of more than 7,000 percent."
Location: Sarasota/ Bradenton - University Pkwy area
4,619 posts, read 7,543,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by downthrust
trying to get an update on the local real estate market down in the sarasota / western FL area ?
Regarding the Sarasota market, July and August are typically our slowest months of the year. That is not true this summer. Pending sales (indication of future closings) are staying strong and the inventory of active listings continues to shrink. This is especially true for single family homes under $200,000 and condos priced under $100,000. Bidding wars are happening more frequently and buyers have to act quickly when new listings come on the market in these price ranges -- especially in the more popular neighborhoods and/or condo complexes. Many are going under contract within 2 or 3 days of showing up as a new listing on the MLS hot sheet.
Banks are waking up to the fact that our inventory is low, and they are taking advantage of the market changes. New REO listings are now frequently priced closer to the higher end of current comps vs the previous low end pricing. Many banks are having fresh paint, carpet and sometimes appliances done to attract more buyers at higher prices. Some of the most recent listings are now at prices at or slightly above the most recent sold comps. I've noticed this in both single family homes and condos in the price ranges I mentioned above.
I think part of the increase in short sale listings this summer is due to the fact that these homeowners are waking up to the fact that the tax breaks available to them under the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 will expire on 12/31/12 unless congress acts between now and the end of the year to extend those breaks. If congress does not extend, homeowners that may now be exempt from paying income taxes on the "forgiven" amount of their mortgages in a short sale or foreclosure may find they will owe substantial taxes on transactions that close after the 12/31 deadline.
Yes, there is still a shadow inventory of distress properties. Most experts are now saying that our market, due to increasing demand for homes and the shrinking inventory, will be able to absorb that shadow inventory as the banks slowly release it to the market.
Builders are also doing well in the local housing market, with companies like Neal hitting record sales thru the 1st quarter of 2012. These builders are buying up land in southern and eastern Manatee county to develop for future communities. Three are already in the works for southern Manatee county (zip code 34203). Other future developments are in the works for Palmer Ranch, the Venice area and east of I75 near Sarasota. So the big builders, who spend a lot of money and effort on tracking trends and researching the local markets, feel comfortable enough about the health of the local real estate market to invest heavily in future projects.
If you're hoping for another big drop in prices in the local real estate market, you may be disappointed as statistics, trends and experts are all pointing to continuing recovery of the Sarasota area housing market.
we have 2 months to go until the election, after the election is out of the way and we see what the stock market does and what tax plans are voted on, then I will be ready to jump in. I don't care for trying to pick at the bottom of the price range, I am more concerned with the fiscal situation of this country for looking at real estate on the long term basis. I don't want to get trapped in another 2006 bubble.
after the election I believe we all will find out more about the 'real economy' and the "real economic numbers" so lets see what happens then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules
Regarding the Sarasota market, July and August are typically our slowest months of the year. That is not true this summer. Pending sales (indication of future closings) are staying strong and the inventory of active listings continues to shrink. This is especially true for single family homes under $200,000 and condos priced under $100,000. Bidding wars are happening more frequently and buyers have to act quickly when new listings come on the market in these price ranges -- especially in the more popular neighborhoods and/or condo complexes. Many are going under contract within 2 or 3 days of showing up as a new listing on the MLS hot sheet.
Banks are waking up to the fact that our inventory is low, and they are taking advantage of the market changes. New REO listings are now frequently priced closer to the higher end of current comps vs the previous low end pricing. Many banks are having fresh paint, carpet and sometimes appliances done to attract more buyers at higher prices. Some of the most recent listings are now at prices at or slightly above the most recent sold comps. I've noticed this in both single family homes and condos in the price ranges I mentioned above.
I think part of the increase in short sale listings this summer is due to the fact that these homeowners are waking up to the fact that the tax breaks available to them under the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 will expire on 12/31/12 unless congress acts between now and the end of the year to extend those breaks. If congress does not extend, homeowners that may now be exempt from paying income taxes on the "forgiven" amount of their mortgages in a short sale or foreclosure may find they will owe substantial taxes on transactions that close after the 12/31 deadline.
Yes, there is still a shadow inventory of distress properties. Most experts are now saying that our market, due to increasing demand for homes and the shrinking inventory, will be able to absorb that shadow inventory as the banks slowly release it to the market.
Builders are also doing well in the local housing market, with companies like Neal hitting record sales thru the 1st quarter of 2012. These builders are buying up land in southern and eastern Manatee county to develop for future communities. Three are already in the works for southern Manatee county (zip code 34203). Other future developments are in the works for Palmer Ranch, the Venice area and east of I75 near Sarasota. So the big builders, who spend a lot of money and effort on tracking trends and researching the local markets, feel comfortable enough about the health of the local real estate market to invest heavily in future projects.
If you're hoping for another big drop in prices in the local real estate market, you may be disappointed as statistics, trends and experts are all pointing to continuing recovery of the Sarasota area housing market.
we have 2 months to go until the election, after the election is out of the way and we see what the stock market does and what tax plans are voted on, then I will be ready to jump in. I don't care for trying to pick at the bottom of the price range, I am more concerned with the fiscal situation of this country for looking at real estate on the long term basis. I don't want to get trapped in another 2006 bubble.
after the election I believe we all will find out more about the 'real economy' and the "real economic numbers" so lets see what happens then.
i dont think after the election it will be status quo. depending on the outcome it will be very bad or very good for the economy. change either way will be swift and serious. i have read that so far this year over 12,000 people have renounced their us citizenship where the norm is usually under 1000. it also said that the vast majority of the 12K were very wealthy. i hope that is not a prediction of the election results.
Not to go to far off topic..but do you honestly think that all these people on some form of government assistance are going to vote for Romney? Please...
As much as I hate saying it, I think Obama will be re-elected, which is why I'm waiting to see what happens after the election. I believe this economy and market is so full of BS reports, etc.to make sure Obama can get re-elected, and once he does, then we find out the real state of economic affairs and the market collapses.
If I honestly believe Romney was going to win hands down then I would be buying a house right now!
I cringe everytime somebody says we are at the bottom of real estate prices because most of them have zero idea what the real economic numbers and indicators are pointing to. Just wait until interest rates rise in response to hyper inflation that our federal reserve is setting us up for, think gas and food is expensive now? We haven't seen anything yet!
Then ask the question..What happens to home prices when mortgage rates rise?
Not to go to far off topic..but do you honestly think that all these people on some form of government assistance are going to vote for Romney? Please...
As much as I hate saying it, I think Obama will be re-elected, which is why I'm waiting to see what happens after the election. I believe this economy and market is so full of BS reports, etc.to make sure Obama can get re-elected, and once he does, then we find out the real state of economic affairs and the market collapses.
If I honestly believe Romney was going to win hands down then I would be buying a house right now!
I cringe everytime somebody says we are at the bottom of real estate prices because most of them have zero idea what the real economic numbers and indicators are pointing to. Just wait until interest rates rise in response to hyper inflation that our federal reserve is setting us up for, think gas and food is expensive now? We haven't seen anything yet!
Then ask the question..What happens to home prices when mortgage rates rise?
they say once more than 1/2 the country is on government handouts the vote is predictable and we are done. how can this not be seen. we are the last generation that have lived better than our parents.
When the percentage of cash deals is as high as it is, everyone ought to brace themselves for another slowdown.
I mean, let's not kid each other. When mortgages are so much tougher to get (mostly rightly), there is no real sustainable real estate boom. There are investors snatching what they think might yield a profit, there are some people who still have money buying some bargains with their savings, and that's it.
When it comes time to settle into a normal real estate market again, if money hasn't loosened up a little, that will be absolutely impossible. Does anyone really think that peoples' credit is BETTER than it used to be?
Hate to say this, because I really want to believe, but I think there is real trouble ahead.
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