Is Sarasota in a bubble (Lakeland, Bradenton: transplants, assessor, broker)

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by FeRail

I just stumbled upon an article published on Fox 13 this week about the housing market. The article mentioned a home in Carrollwood outside of Tampa that originally sold for $492,000 and then sold again four months later for $600,000. The only major difference the article mentioned between this bubble and the 2000's bubble are the very strict lending standards.



I definitely feel that there won't be a major crash, but the bubble will fizzle out sometime over the next 2-3 years. Unfortunately, most of the homes are well beyond affordable for most individuals.

Most of the people I'm noticing moving here are from states like NJ, MA, NY, PA, where the money is at. Notice some midwest and upper south but it seems lately the bulk Im seeing is from New England where are the money is at, those liberal states.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Most of the people I'm noticing moving here are from states like NJ, MA, NY, PA, where the money is at. Notice some midwest and upper south but it seems lately the bulk Im seeing is from New England where are the money is at, those liberal states.

I agree, but I'm seeing California car tags a lot, and not on rental cars. I'm also seeing Colorado, & New Mexico. I'm talking the past few days which is now off-season.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I agree, but I'm seeing California car tags a lot, and not on rental cars. I'm also seeing Colorado, & New Mexico. I'm talking the past few days which is now off-season.

I notice with California though is the type of cars. They're not the high end luxury cars with Cali tags but Hondas, Toyotas and also a bit of older cars like 2008-2015.


The reason for that is possibly those middle and lower middle class folks are simply getting pushed out of California due to the high cost of living there. Even those lower middle class people if they sell their house in Southern California they could still easily buy a house here in Florida due to how inflated the market is out there.



That's just an observation I've seen. Many look like in their 40s and typical working class from California, and middle to lower class. That's another issue too. Those type of people can afford the regular houses here. Ones that cost in the lower 200s just a few years ago get drove up in price too simply because they sold their house out there for 400k and can either get a low house payment or pay for the house in cash.


However these people from California like the ones I described above driving older or beater cars is that eventually they're going to have problems if they're not educated and in a high paying field here in Florida. If they came from a service industry they will make a lot less here.


Not trying to people bash, but that's just what I'm seeing around here when I see California place. Older cars and people who don't look like they have a ton of money. Not the type you think of when you think of LA or Beverly Hills lol.



Also, if they lived in Southern California all their lives and need to move because it cost too much it's unlikely they're going to want to move to a cold climate if they're not used to it. The educated ones are moving to Texas because there is a lot of industry in Houston, Austin and Dallas.



I'm from Missouri and southwest Missouri is getting people like crazy from California also. Many retired though and the climate in Southwest Missouri is pretty tolerable in the winter except for a few days. Similar to central TN. Which that has me worried. SWMO is VERY Republican. Many districts they don't even run democrats, BUT the last couple years Democrats in Green County won two seats narrowly in the Missouri house. Me thinks those California people are a factor, especially if they moved there to work at the university which one of the districts is located in.

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

I notice with California though is the type of cars. They're not the high end luxury cars with Cali tags but Hondas, Toyotas and also a bit of older cars like 2008-2015.


The reason for that is possibly those middle and lower middle class folks are simply getting pushed out of California due to the high cost of living there. Even those lower middle class people if they sell their house in Southern California they could still easily buy a house here in Florida due to how inflated the market is out there.



That's just an observation I've seen. Many look like in their 40s and typical working class from California, and middle to lower class. That's another issue too. Those type of people can afford the regular houses here. Ones that cost in the lower 200s just a few years ago get drove up in price too simply because they sold their house out there for 400k and can either get a low house payment or pay for the house in cash.


However these people from California like the ones I described above driving older or beater cars is that eventually they're going to have problems if they're not educated and in a high paying field here in Florida. If they came from a service industry they will make a lot less here.


Not trying to people bash, but that's just what I'm seeing around here when I see California place. Older cars and people who don't look like they have a ton of money. Not the type you think of when you think of LA or Beverly Hills lol.



Also, if they lived in Southern California all their lives and need to move because it cost too much it's unlikely they're going to want to move to a cold climate if they're not used to it. The educated ones are moving to Texas because there is a lot of industry in Houston, Austin and Dallas.



I'm from Missouri and southwest Missouri is getting people like crazy from California also. Many retired though and the climate in Southwest Missouri is pretty tolerable in the winter except for a few days. Similar to central TN. Which that has me worried. SWMO is VERY Republican. Many districts they don't even run democrats, BUT the last couple years Democrats in Green County won two seats narrowly in the Missouri house. Me thinks those California people are a factor, especially if they moved there to work at the university which one of the districts is located in.

You are really making a LOT of assumptions here......

[beach43ofus]

I must agree with MO that the Cali tag cars I'm seeing are not high end cars. They are not beaters either, but lower to middle

A new neighbor's $50k+ pick up has Colorado tags on it. And he has a boat.

These people are not seeing any bubble here. They are seeing affordability compared to where they came from.

I'm seeing all kinds of Western car tags these days.

Hopefully, the humidity will chase them off eventually. Maybe a hurricane scare would be a good thing right now.

Where's Shekkie when you need him?

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I must agree with MO that the Cali tag cars I'm seeing are not high end cars. They are not beaters either, but lower to middle

A new neighbor's $50k+ pick up has Colorado tags on it. And he has a boat.

These people are not seeing any bubble here. They are seeing affordability compared to where they came from.

I'm seeing all kinds of Western car tags these days.

Hopefully, the humidity will chase them off eventually. Maybe a hurricane scare would be a good thing right now.

Where's Shekkie when you need him?

I don't want CO and CA people here turning FL into them. We are a purple state so it doesn't take much.



Colorado used to be conservative. I mean not super conservative like a Missouri or Mississippi but conservative. Then when those Cali people move there they made it go liberal.


Maryland about 40 years ago also was more conservative and looks what happened when the swamp expanded. Those people from Cali caused CO to become expensive and liberal.


The same thing is happening to Arizona too! All those people from California are flocking to AZ now and things are getting expensive there and the politics are going blue there too now.


I think it has already scared some away. I've seen posts before some new englanders who came here to escape lockdowns are going back because the heat is too bad down here and they hate the heat.


Something like a cat2 would be nice to scare them. A large, strong cat4 though could cripple this state if it were to hit MIami, SWFL or Tampa.

[Sunshine Rules]

Finally, some good news for new construction home buyers!

Lumber prices are dropping, and dropping quickly.


Futures for July delivery ended Monday at $996.20 per thousand board feet, down 42% from the record of $1,711.20 reached in early May. Futures have declined 14 of the past 15 trading days, the last two by the most allowed by exchange rules.

Cash lumber prices are also crashing. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks on-the-spot sales, dropped $122 to $1,324, its biggest ever weekly decline.

[Truth Traveler]

Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules

Finally, some good news for new construction home buyers!

Lumber prices are dropping, and dropping quickly.


Futures for July delivery ended Monday at $996.20 per thousand board feet, down 42% from the record of $1,711.20 reached in early May. Futures have declined 14 of the past 15 trading days, the last two by the most allowed by exchange rules.

Cash lumber prices are also crashing. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks on-the-spot sales, dropped $122 to $1,324, its biggest ever weekly decline.

No kidding. There was never a shortage of framing lumber, plywood or composites.


Builders knew this months ago, and they hedged their inventories and bought future contracts long ago in 2020. National and regional builders were fleecing house buyers for over a year.


As a former commodities trader, I know how this crap works for sure....lol...been there, participated in it


Ever heard of Weyerhaeuser?


Massive profits and of course Potlatch


You're getting hosed in the bs frenzy...don't buy crap in this overpriced market...just wait until next year lol....buyers over the past 7 months are fools

[joshan]

Originally Posted by Truth Traveler

You're getting hosed in the bs frenzy...don't buy crap in this overpriced market...just wait until next year lol....buyers over the past 7 months are fools

Closed almost exactly 7 months ago and am up about 30% already. Glad to be a fool.

[Truth Traveler]

to each his own....if I "invested" say, 100k for example only, and I could have a 30% gain in a SEVEN MONTH period, which is a obliviously short holding period, most "investors" would HIT the BID! and that's just a "lousy" $30,000.00 LOL....if you paid, say, 300k+, then that's a "lousy" $90,000.00 US in SEVEN MONTH holding period.


you're your own man, I'll leave it to freedom of choice


I only know about the time value of money. I only know that I would be a fool not to take almost a 100,000.00 dollar gain in SEVEN MONTHS....but that's just me.


For me, I'd put the cash money in MY pocket, even though I don't "need" it.


To each his own I guess. I don't care what mistakes people make, but I do talk about them on occasion.


Being "up 30%" on paper, is absolutely meaningless unless you're borrowing against phantom gains or selling to another fool for CASH.