Is Sarasota in a bubble (townhouse, tenants, university)

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by brianwy

A business degree will still land you a decent job in a good market like Atl or Dallas. The real problem lies with the history, english, communications, etc. liberal arts majors. They are the ones who find themselves as assistant managers at a foot locker store or making $13/hr as customer service rep.

The other issue is in those big cities is the rent, housing. Entry level job won't cut it unless folks help you out or have a roommate.


I got my degree in Jan 2013 up in St. Louis. The job market at the time still stunk and employers were still paying cheap. I have a degree in business. Unless you have a really good internship or from a high end college if you have a business admin or management degree you're just a small fish in a sea of thousands of other applicants. It's better to get a tech degree or a degree in something like accounting that can one day lead to being a CPA.


When I couldn't get a job I at one point considered going all the way and getting a PHD. When I saw at my college how full time professors at the time were making like 115k a year AND they got the entire summers off to travel.


I remember in my economics class our professor was on the hiring board. He was telling us they couldn't find full time accounting professors because of the pay. A CPA could make much more in the field. He told us the starting pay was almost 120k a year and summers off, long holiday breaks. The entire classes jaws dropped. Couldn't believe they couldn't find people for the job. I'm sure the pay is a bit higher 8 years later.


I'd do that job for 80 grand a year! Summers off, spring break, winter break. Some professors only on campus 4 days a week as well.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by SylvieMarchande

Education in re professors in college is a cesspool of leftist thought, you might not fit in lol

It is clear that SylvieMarchande is the same person as AaronDavidShultz and Jenson440. All one person using different other names to scare away potential buyers of Sarasota real estate.

The posts all use insulting and bombastic language. Here, an example is "cesspool of leftist thought."

This was one of the first posts using this new name, all today, and immediately it was insulting of another speaker. A classic tell.

They also wrote this earlier today "I hope not in Florida, we have enough over-crowding and way too expensive housing in this market!"

During the time period that he/she/they, using many names, have told people they were “stupid” if they did not sell prices have risen 10-15%.


Real estate is historically a very good hedge during inflation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...he-experts-say. Maybe it will be this time, and maybe not. But, history is on the side of real estate.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by SylvieMarchande

What? I, for one, don't care who moves to florida! who are you anyway?

In the words of "Sheckie" (a/k/a Sylvie and many other assumed forum names) above: "What? I, for one, don't care who moves to florida!"

What Sheckie (a/k/a Sylvie) wrote in another post today to show "she" does care and wants no one to move to Florida: "I hope not in Florida, we have enough over-crowding and way too expensive housing in this market!"

As Shakespear wrote in Hamlet" "The lady doth protest too much, methinks"

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by SylvieMarchande

Education in re professors in college is a cesspool of leftist thought, you might not fit in lol

"Most" but not all. The business school seemed to have many more Republican type teachers. A lot of them at the business school were conservative while my art classes, and social science classes were taught by mostly liberal young women. I tried to take as many business elective classes as possible.

[Trying941]

This thread started in August 2019. Most people then said Sarasota was in a bubble. A few didn’t. Most people were very wrong. The graph does not lie.

https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/34242/housing-market

Other zip codes are similar.

Markets go up and down. A bubble is a sudden and disproportionate rise. The graph shows a long term trend up with normal ups and downs along the way. No bubble.

If the current market continues to accelerate upwards, and there are signs it will, a bubble could be created. Supply is artificially suppressed by material shortages. Demand is accelerated by decaying urban environments causing people to move here and the trend of remote work making this a desirable location.

However, if prices that rose from 600k in August 2019 to 845k in January 2022 slow to 10-15% this year, there will probably be no bubble and no major correction.

[beach43ofus]

I agree w/ Trying941...no bubble since this thread began. A bubble could develop in the future, but we are not in one now.

The run-up over the past 3 months is something to watch though...the bidding wars, new home builder auctions, all the homes selling way over asking price. So long as the supply chain remains challenged, & energy prices keep trending upward (oil went from $56-$96/brl, & is projected to reach $150), I can't see a pricing pullback in 2022.

I'm one of the lucky ones whose timing was right, & got in just as this upward trend began. I wish I could say I was smart enough to see it coming. It was just dumb luck.

The only smart thing I did (my opinion only) was buy in Southern Sarasota County, South of the high population density areas to escape some of the traffic, & suburban jungle. At least I'll get ~8 years of space, trees, & freedom of movement, until its all ruined, and I have to move elsewhere. Florida may run out of "elsewhere's" in my lifetime. Every newly developed area has a sweet spot in time, & that time is now for Southern Sarasota County.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by SylvieMarchande

someone seems easily perturbed or preoccupied with something called Shekky? funny, and odd - what good is that doing? answer: none. Don't let a shekky get under your skin maybe? who is shekky really anyway?


@Beachy:


you are correct in that TIMING can be a matter of luck, not of smarts ! that's why Helen Keller could see that the run-up you alluded to during the past 3 mos or so, is a huge sign not to touch this market and that in fact it has been a seller's market NOT a buyer's market - how could any savvy short term house owner not see that plainly - it's irrational exuberance by definition.

Please note that the posting above is an example of the classic Internet troll post. Every post generated under this non di guerre is like this.


In internet slang, a troll is a person who posts inflammatory, insincere, digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.), a newsgroup, forum, chat room, online video game, or blog), with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses,[2] or manipulating others' perception. This is typically for the troll's amusement, or to achieve a specific result such as disrupting a rival's online activities or manipulating a political process. Even so, Internet trolling can also be defined as purposefully causing confusion or harm to other users online, for no reason at all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

Please also note that since this troll has been posting to advise people not to buy and move to Sarasota prices have risen over 50%. He/she/it has used numerous user names in this thread, but the troll-like style is always the same.

[Jensen440]

Looks like opinions to me, and that's what the internet is full of, right? I don't see personal attacks or anything like that.



Why on earth get upset? or allow it to bother you? heck, ignore it! doesn't harm you, right?


Stay on topic for godsake lol

[Sunshine Rules]

January sales numbers as released today by the Sarasota Manatee Board of Realtors:

SARASOTA, Fla. (February 21, 2022) – The Sarasota and Manatee housing market starts off the year with the lowest level of inventory reported in January 2022. According to data from Florida REALTORS® and compiled by the REALTOR® Association of Sarasota and Manatee (RASM), closed sales increased slightly for single-family homes but decreased for condos in the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA, and the inventory of active listings declined to a record low number, with only 1,348 listings reported at the end of January.

Total closed sales – completed transactions of single-family homes and condos in the two counties – decreased year-over-year by 7.2 percent to a total of 1,766 sales in January 2022. For single-family homes, closed sales increased year-over-year by 4.7 percent to 539 sales in Manatee and decreased by 2 percent to 653 sales in Sarasota County. Condo sales decreased by 15.1 percent to 225 sales in Manatee and decreased by 23.5 percent to 349 sales in Sarasota.

and

For the third straight month, median prices have increased month-over-month in the two-county region. Single-family home prices increased year-over-year by 36.6 percent to a median $464,500 in Sarasota County, while Manatee experienced a 29.7 percent increase to $480,000. For condos, prices in January were $350,000 in Sarasota, a 15.8 percent year-over-year increase, and $301,000 in Manatee, a 30.3 percent increase.

Unsold inventory sits at a 0.6-month supply for single-family homes in both counties. For condos, supply is at 0.6-months in Sarasota and only 0.4-months in Manatee.


https://www.myrasm.com/january2022/?...4-00155d080810

[shallots]

Originally Posted by Trying941

This thread started in August 2019. Most people then said Sarasota was in a bubble. A few didn’t. Most people were very wrong. The graph does not lie.

https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/34242/housing-market

Other zip codes are similar.

Markets go up and down. A bubble is a sudden and disproportionate rise. The graph shows a long term trend up with normal ups and downs along the way. No bubble.

If the current market continues to accelerate upwards, and there are signs it will, a bubble could be created. Supply is artificially suppressed by material shortages. Demand is accelerated by decaying urban environments causing people to move here and the trend of remote work making this a desirable location.

However, if prices that rose from 600k in August 2019 to 845k in January 2022 slow to 10-15% this year, there will probably be no bubble and no major correction.

Thank you for the logic - appreciated!