Is Sarasota in a bubble (Bradenton, Naples: vehicle, land, electric)

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by 1rainman

It's all about $$. Increasing tax revenue and real estate. You know the state of Florida spends billions on advertising every year.

The State of Florida has a total annual budget of ~$115B, so spending >$2B on advertising = ~2% of the overall budget.

The State of Florida's return on advertising dollars spent must be very strong.

Tourism is a very large part of Florida's economy....not promoting it would be insane.

[Sunshine Rules]

VISIT FLORIDA estimates that Florida welcomed 35.1 million visitors between July and September 2022, marking a 6.9 percent increase from Q3 2021, and the fifth consecutive quarter of overall visitation surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

In 2019, the leisure and hospitality industry accounted for nearly 6% of real state GDP, 14% of total employment and 15% of state sales tax collection.

Approximately 35% of our state's employment is tied either directly or indirectly to tourism.

According to the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, for every $1 the state invests in VISIT FLORIDA, $3.27 in state tax revenue is generated.

So it appears our state legislature is actually getting a return on the money spent on tourism.


Unlike Congress, where lawmakers padded the $1.7 trillion spending bill with over $15 BILLION in pet pork projects in the form of over 7200 earmarks.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by DovieHarding

lots of us hope all of the people, not just old folks, will find another destination, this area is going straight downhill, but for some crazy reason there is a vocal, delusional segment of newcomers who seem to be hellbent on more encouragement, endorsement and promotion of the area even to the detriment of the economy, infrastructure, schools, housing stock, water quality, community standards, healthcare options, and personal/family safety. That's crazy in my book.

This thread started in August 2019.

Posters have been predicting the imminent collapse of the real estate market from the get-go and even before this thread started.

Sorry to burst their bubble about the bubble, but - Toll Brothers in Lakewood Ranch just raised their prices. Toll Brothers stock is up 26% over the past six months.

As I have noted previously, the real estate market in Sarasota/Bradenton is a collection of different markets. The upper middle and higher end is going up again (if you do not need to borrow much, higher interest rates don't bother you much). The lower end has stabilized, with only a very minor decline from the very peak (under 5%).

I am not a big fan of the changes that are happening, but howling against the wind is a waste of time. There is nothing more certain than change.

[beach43ofus]

I have been posting since August 2019, that we have no bubble, but that we'd have moderate dips in between long boom periods.

Even during rising interest rates, we have not had any huge price drop...as I also predicted, due to:

-the high % of cash buyers we have in this forum area
-our low number of 1st time buyers
-this area's attractiveness just keeps growing
-low inventory of new & pre-owned homes

Looking ahead, to the next 3 years, I don't see anything changing dramatically (at this time).

[DovieHarding]

Maybe there should be MORE howling against the "wind" ....winds of change very often create disasters. Ignoring hazards can be deadly - except to blind fools that cheer high winds (like in "hurricane parties" lol) The changes here all around Florida and especially in this are of Manatee-Sarasota-Lee are mostly negative to the environment. Most thinking people don't look at what's happening on the high end (of anything) to intelligently gauge the quality of life or even desirability of any area. Problem is there exists a tendency to exalt a tiny slither of the economic landscape through an psuedo-elistist prism of tunnel vision.. That's boneheaded to say the least. A view from 30,000 feet is far more informative for a larger, more important demographic and future. Of course, boneheads abound.

[Trying941]

Hold onto your hats folks. Several builders have just raised their prices for a second time this month. And, Michael Saunders has several home in multiple offer situations, going to highest and best. Down in Naples, the Ritz condos are up 40% in price in one month.

Needless to say, this post will attract the same poster(s) who say the sky will soon be falling. Maybe true. Maybe not. I am not making a prediction. I am only stating what is happening in the market today.

[DovieHarding]

I might not think that using a Naples market as a barometer is an accurate measure of the health of this market? Current rates in Bradenton, Florida are 6.51% for a 30 year fixed loan, 5.86% for 15 year fixed loan and 5.92% for a 5 year ARM. If you actually look at a graph of 30 yr rates from Feb last year to Fed 2023, the trend line is increasing, and the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates again according to the experts. Sales, locally, have slowed and mark-downs are everywhere. https://www.trulia.com/mortgage-rates/Bradenton,FL/

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by DovieHarding

I might not think that using a Naples market as a barometer is an accurate measure of the health of this market? Current rates in Bradenton, Florida are 6.51% for a 30 year fixed loan, 5.86% for 15 year fixed loan and 5.92% for a 5 year ARM. If you actually look at a graph of 30 yr rates from Feb last year to Fed 2023, the trend line is increasing, and the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates again according to the experts. Sales, locally, have slowed and mark-downs are everywhere. https://www.trulia.com/mortgage-rates/Bradenton,FL/

And the Ritz Carlton Naples has raised prices 1.5 million this month from the opening reconstruction prices. it is 50% sold in a month. Some folk don't care about mortgage rates - and a lot of them are in Naples.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by Trying941

And the Ritz Carlton Naples has raised prices 1.5 million this month from the opening reconstruction prices. it is 50% sold in a month. Some folk don't care about mortgage rates - and a lot of them are in Naples.

The market will be spotty nationally, and statewide. There will be no broad brushes to paint markets by.

Bradenton is much younger than Sarasota/Venice, or Naples. I'd say Bradenton is more vulnerable to high mortgage rates than other places in SW FLA.

Our peak season has passed...those who wanted to buy to be in their new homes for this Winter, have already done so. This season has only ~60 days left.

This forum area is still not in any bubble, and it wont be in 2023, unless war breeaks out or some other calamity occurs.

Read my lips....NO BUBBLE....sorry doomsayers, antagonists, & lovers of all things bad.

[DovieHarding]

You may be correct about the Ritz Carlton's crazy pricing, but most families don't live in that 1% world. They live in the middle class or even lower, right? Quoting or affirming what is happening in the world of ONE MILLION DOLLAR + housing market in Florida (or anywhere else lol) is totally non sequitur and no sane person, retiree, or family is paying attention to such market dynamic. Most residents in Florida don't buy MILLION DOLLAR+ residences in the first place, no where close to the real consumer of housing. It's very nice to know about the Ritz Carlton residences though. Go purchase one yourself, or two. Maybe you have already, when it was cheaper. Good for you! MOst of us live in the real world (I don't know but maybe our house in valued at 450 or so....don't care, you can only be in one room at a time LOL). Even at that, most people can't afford a 450, 000 house these days, so they darn aren't interested in being told about what's going on at the Ritz Carlton residences in NAPLES we would certainly think. I'm constantly dismayed at the lack of socio-cultural-financial realities. God Help US, all.