Is Sarasota in a bubble (Miami, Tampa: zip code, pine, used car)

[PasDeSoleil]

Prices are still too high INHO, but sales for US have dropped for the sixth straight month according to the Wall Street Journal (existing homes)


https://www.wsj.com/articles/existin...22-11660774574

[beach43ofus]

This topic thread is now over 3 years old, & this is post #773, and still no bubble, or even any definition of what a bubble is as a percent of decrease in prices, decrease in # of units sold, or increase in days on market.

Our market appears to have peaked, & is no longer White hot. Prices are still increasing, just not as rapidly as before, and not as many bidding wars. Days on market is lengthening, but still historically short.

Inventory is growing slowly, but still well below norms.

In all, this area is outperforming the national averages.

I'd guess this forum area is outperforming most of Florida because we have 2 of the hottest master planned communities still actively being marketed nationally, & selling new & pre-owned homes (Lakewood Ranch, & Wellen Park).

We are in the late-Summer off-season, so its hard to know what will occur when the high season returns, & the market heats up again in November/December.

Interest rates should keep the market from turning White hot again, but I could see Red hot returning by January. There are still a LOT of Baby Boomers retiring, work from anywhere is here to stay, cost of living and taxes up North continue to rise.

I think Northerners inability to sell their homes up North, could adversely impact our market in this rising interest rate environment.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

This topic thread is now over 3 years old, & this is post #773, and still no bubble, or even any definition of what a bubble is as a percent of decrease in prices, decrease in # of units sold, or increase in days on market.

Our market appears to have peaked, & is no longer White hot. Prices are still increasing, just not as rapidly as before, and not as many bidding wars. Days on market is lengthening, but still historically short.

Inventory is growing slowly, but still well below norms.

In all, this area is outperforming the national averages.

I'd guess this forum area is outperforming most of Florida because we have 2 of the hottest master planned communities still actively being marketed nationally, & selling new & pre-owned homes (Lakewood Ranch, & Wellen Park).

We are in the late-Summer off-season, so its hard to know what will occur when the high season returns, & the market heats up again in November/December.

Interest rates should keep the market from turning White hot again, but I could see Red hot returning by January. There are still a LOT of Baby Boomers retiring, work from anywhere is here to stay, cost of living and taxes up North continue to rise.

I think Northerners inability to sell their homes up North, could adversely impact our market in this rising interest rate environment.

Very true! It does seem though the market South of Sarasota, like in my area on south is slower. Here in Punta Gorda, Charlotte County houses are not moving! I've seen listings in PGI with boat lift, pool, etc. on the market since March with price reductions and still won't move. In my sub division houses been on the market since June, 10k price cut and still on the market, with others being on the market since mid July.

I think with Sarasota and Bradenton an advantage you have is that you're not very far from the Tampa area. Retired folks who lived up in major cities like Boston, NYC, Chicago and such are a short drive to a major city.

I think that makes Sarasota Bradenton appealing is just an hour drive from Tampa. New listings in my area also seem to have gone down in price a bit. Still listed at asinine prices but not like I saw back in April. And more price reductions if no one bites. My neighbor sold their house and moved back north. Sold in about 3 weeks but they could have got quite a bit more if they wanted to but listed lower in order to move it.

[newtovenice]

Not for investors. Been hit with calls and text all last week and this week. 2 different investors today alone.

Still searching to grab up all those homes and then leave em empty!!!!!

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

Not for investors. Been hit with calls and text all last week and this week. 2 different investors today alone.

Still searching to grab up all those homes and then leave em empty!!!!!

You and me both!!!

[newtovenice]

Originally Posted by gypsychic

You and me both!!!

They want to own it all.

People need to get a clue as to what is happening.

I saw a report where one of those housing firms bought up 60,000 houses.

Unreal.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

They want to own it all.

People need to get a clue as to what is happening.

I saw a report where one of those housing firms bought up 60,000 houses.

Unreal.

Also these calls, and also those signs you see with numbers "we buy houses cash now" seem to almost always be Chinese people on the other end if you call the numbers or they call you.

Chinese have been buying up lots of properties in popular major cities the last few years.

[Hbcapital]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

Not for investors. Been hit with calls and text all last week and this week. 2 different investors today alone.

Still searching to grab up all those homes and then leave em empty!!!!!

What is the point of buying a home and leaving it empty? You lose rental income.

[PasDeSoleil]

Originally Posted by Hbcapital

What is the point of buying a home and leaving it empty? You lose rental income.

What's the point in also cheerleading and being supportive, even effusive about clearly out of control pricing models? LOL Overpriced housing is a net negative, never a net positive, but some retail consumers never learn or pay attention to historical models. It's really quite odd.


Investor i.e. Institutional Investor classes have a very very different motivation and strategy, including tax strategies, collateral use, depreciation techniques, and beyond. Massive participation by Institutional organizations in the SF housing sector is the never a good sign for the everyday "trade-up" or "first-time" retail buyer. It's a signal to step aside. Ditto foreign participation. Their leverage can crush and/or artificially manipulate market trajectory faster and deeper than normal retail participation.


There is not enough time or interest here to delve into some of these complicated strategies (specifically in market timing, et al). These investor classes are not stupid. Retail buyers are. Institutional organizations pump and dump all the time. They drive the market in what might be a hot market. They will crush the retail market in a bat of the eye, and do it all over again - including taking strategic losses. They know the buying retail public is mostly stupid, they count on it. Never, ever follow conventional wisdom....but most house buyers and first time buyers don't have a clue how to avoid head-fakes and irrational exuberance. Patting yourself on the back because perhaps your house has perhaps increased in "value" during this run-up, really has no realized/tangible financial benefit, and you are guaranteed to receive a higher property tax bill in the next assessment period, or a Bank demand to increase your contribution to your escrowed yearly taxes (if permitted).


Whatever though, eh?

[newtovenice]

Originally Posted by Hbcapital

What is the point of buying a home and leaving it empty? You lose rental income.

I have no answer. All it does is lower supply and drive up prices. But I see it happening.

I also see the ridiculous prices. And investors buying at the height of the market makes no sense to me either.