The impending Seattle housing market collapse. (Snohomish: short sales, condominiums, loan)

[seattlenextyear]

Originally Posted by Beena

True story.

So 15 years ago before I moved to Phoenix I told my doctor I could never live in a place that was 100+ degrees!! So my doctor says to me "have you ever stuck a thermometer in yur bxtt?" Huh? So one weekend, on a slow Saturday night I gave it a shot. Well whadda ya know...98.6 degrees. Called and told her. So she explained to me that 99 or 100 degrees is actually perfect human temperature and we only think that is hot if our brain has frozen and we have gotten all stupid. So fast forward 15 years. I love Phoenix.

So to sum up my highly educational story. Dear Seattle, have you ever stuck a thermometer up...

Wow, I'd never go to that doctor again. She obviously has very little understanding of basic human physiology.

[Beena]

My IQ dropped a few points from writing that.

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by seattlenextyear

Wow, I'd never go to that doctor again. She obviously has very little understanding of basic human physiology.

I agree. Humans are warm-blooded creatures. We can adapt to many different temps.

If what you're saying is true... why is it the media reports of people dying when the power out and the A/C is down in the Southwest?

People die in the SW, in Chicago, and other places because their bodies are compromised in some way and they can't adapt to the heat. Usually it is the elderly who die in heat waves. They get dehydrated. Their bodies can't cool them as efficiently.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by MichaelinWA

Real estate is always a dangerous game in the short-term, but Seattle has similar characteristics to San Francisco and Boston. Limited room for expansion, limited supply, and continued demand should provide a long-term floor on pricing within Seattle.

That seems to be the common denominator there: look what happened to the SoCal RE market 35 years ago, Wash DC/NYC metros are another along with smaller enclaves like Sedona, Flagstaff, etc.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by toughguy

Correction, most of us like sunshine when it isn't threatening to give you heat stroke like it is Phoenix 6 months out of the year. No offense but I don't know what the appeal of Phoenix is, I honestly don't. Completely soulless downtown area, low-wage service based economy, blasting heat for half the year, in the middle of the desert, water rationing, crappy schools, I could go on.

Living here in the Phx area I know of what you speak of re: extreme heat/sunshine, it does become annoying.

That stated: more than 3 days of incessant overcast weather gets on my nerves something fierce------more so than the sun.

I must be a 'desert rat' at heart

Different people react to the same things in different ways.

[Rubyvroom]

Originally Posted by Ira500

20 years ago Ballard was pretty decrepit, and still retains some elements of that, but how/why did it become the neighborhood of choice, and are there similar neighborhoods in San Diego, and how have they fared compared to the rest of the SD area?

Ira, I think probably the closest comparison in SD to Ballard would be the North Park area. 20 years ago North Park was solidly working class but was kinda run-down and had some seedy elements too. Nowadays North Park is revitalized with a restored opera house, condo developments, thriving retail and restaurant scene, etc. (northparkscene.com chronicles those changes if you're interested) It's a completely walkable neighborhood with a farmer's market, many art galleries that have monthly open houses, good freeway access and bus links to downtown as well as being close to Balboa Park.

When we moved to Seattle we wanted to sell our North Park condo. It's a good unit which is larger/nicer than probably 90% of condos on the market. Trouble is we couldn't get enough for it to pay off our mortgage despite having put 20% down four years ago. Another similar unit in our building recently sold for about 120K less than what we paid. Yowch. All in all I think North Park is weathering the downturn better than it would have before the revitalization it's just that places in SD neighborhoods like Queen Anne here are down enough that places like North Park get dragged down further. North Park starts to look like much less of a bargain.

In my opinion if San Diego falls a little more (which I think it will) and Seattle falls some too (which I also think it will) then you'll have a situation where the price for a place in San Diego is not really that different from a place in Seattle. At that point I can see a number of people who live here seriously considering moving to sunnier pastures. Outside of housing I haven't really experienced the cost of living to be that different between Seattle and San Diego. We are a little better off here financially with no state income tax but we are a LOT better off here in terms of cultural fit (we like trees). However I know a bunch of people would think of CA state income taxes as a "sunshine tax" which would be worth paying.

[Ira500]

Thanks, Ruby:

Seattle prices have been falling, King County in general more so than Seattle proper.
So you don't think some "precious" neighborhoods in Seattle will buck the trend and not drop in price?

[Rubyvroom]

Originally Posted by Ira500

Thanks, Ruby:
So you don't think some "precious" neighborhoods in Seattle will buck the trend and not drop in price?

We heard that a lot in San Diego too. "Oh, prices in La Jolla, Mission Hills, Scripps Ranch will NEVER go down." Oops. Apparently someone forgot to inform the buyers. I think SD has greater problems than Seattle like more people using no-doc loans and more speculators but I don't think that Seattle is going to escape unscathed. It takes people a while to psychologically come to terms with their house being worth less than they think it should be and you have this standoff where sellers refuse to sell for less than they want and buyers refuse to buy for what the sellers are asking and the only homes that sell are the homes that HAVE to sell. But you probably know that better than I do.

We'd like to buy in Seattle but 1) prices are more than what I want to pay and 2) we need to accumulate another down payment since ours is locked up in our SD property. In the meantime every time I see a real estate flyer in my neighborhood I pick one up, write the date on it as well as any negatives about the property that I can see like if it's on a busy street and then after the places have sold I compare the sales price to the asking price and the days on market. At least that way I get an idea of what's happening in my neighborhood and when I do come to buy I will be a heckuva lot more informed than when we bought in SD.

[Ira500]

I was kind of asking rhetorically. Too many real estate agents are preaching that " It won't happen here, Seattle is special" nonsense.
It sounds like you're doing everything right, Ruby.
With listings, there are tricks that some sellers do, like take it off the market for a short period and then relist it, so it appears to be a new listing.

[Rubyvroom]

Originally Posted by Ira500

I was kind of asking rhetorically. Too many real estate agents are preaching that " It won't happen here, Seattle is special" nonsense.

I figured. But apparently I have a lot to say about the housing market. I'll keep that relisting thing in mind. I think that Redfin has a full listing history if you do a search by address.