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IWC has had two monster efforts Triple digit Beyer and a 99. Any slight improvement off of those puts him the 103-108 range (which can win the derby). It worries me a bit that he just arrived a Churchill Downs he was working out early this week in Maryland. Why the isolation, why not get him to CD to workout.
I might pick Gunnevera. I don't think he needed or really wanted to win the last time out (still had the best closing times). He's bred for the distance and the pace will be hot and he's smack dab in the middle. His jockey gets inducted in the hall of fame in the year he wins his first derby. Good story.
Hence is checking off a lot of boxes for me too.
McCracken had a huge effort early this year, then he was hurt a little, but I can see him with a big effort.
And I'm keeping an eye on Irap.
Anyone else thinking about leaving Classic Empire and Always Dreaming off their tickets- I see bounce with both of them. Hope I'm wrong.
Sigh. I like Irap and word is he's training very well but take a good look at what Hence did to him 6 weeks ago. I can't see him making up the ground. He got a dream trip in the Bluegrass.
Regarding those Beyers on IWC - He got a 101 in the Wood which according to the DRF was the highest of his career, earned a 97 winning the Holy Bull. He bombed in the Fountain Of Youth, the race won by Gunnevera who earned a Beyer of 97. Where was the other 100 and the 99, one of them in the race I saw? I'd be surprised. I never thought he would be in this race.
He's only run 5 times. I think those are other speed figures, not Beyers.
Last edited by John13; 05-03-2017 at 08:28 PM..
Reason: typo
I'll be enjoying a mint julep, eating KFC, and wearing a Panama Jack hat in order to honor the Kentucky Derby, plus I'll have chips & salsa with a Dos Equis Amber to belatedly celebrate Cinco de Mayo (on May 6)!
I'll be betting $0, and cheering on sentimental favorite, Patch. No $$$ loss, and gaining great joy and satisfaction if he wins.
I'm likely going with an across the board bet on Hence. I hope he hits the board but I think he has a good chance to win this. I'm expecting 11 or 12-1.
Maybe wager a bit more in the Show pool. Should be a nice payoff if he gets there.
Looks like I'll get 16-1 or so on Hence. He isn't getting much respect from what I read.
Long race and a big field will spell trouble for more than a few.
Gunnevera (should be one of the favorites) and a couple of others scare me...
Because I think a closer is going to win this, extreme longshot late runners Looking At Lee and Sonneteer may be worth a token wager. Sometimes 3 year olds can suddenly improve...
$1 Superfecta:
Classic Empire
Irish War Cry
Hence
Always Dreaming
Good luck
The Superfecta is one tough bet to hit, especially here.
IWC is one of those that scare me.
I notice Gunnevera is missing. I looked at the Florida Derby again and didn't think he was all that, even considering his weird start. Hope I'm doing the right thing but I may be backing off on him a bit. Not to say he can't win this...
It should be a great race.
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