They are coming... Urbanites increase (Jacksonville, Miami: new home, buyer, to live)

[PhotoProIP]

Originally Posted by jsun556

I'm pretty sure you're the one who started this whole back and forth with your comment PhotoProIP. Don't backpeddle now.

I have never once been down there and had an easy time getting out of there!

[DUNNDFRNT]

Originally Posted by bavariantransplant

I agree for the most part but there is a thing called supply/demand.

I have only driven through South Tampa once so my exposure is almost nil. I did look online often at homes in South Tampa and although they were in my price range I felt the driving force behind what seemed like bloated prices was the fact that there was limited supply and a high demand.

There is a high demand for homes in Land O lakes, Wesley Chapel and New Tampa but there is also a large supply which keeps the prices from skyrocketing.

There is also a thing called scarcity value, which affects the equilibrium price. So it costs more is more valuable, there is a bigger demand for steel than gold, but there is just more steel to satisfy it, it doesn't mean steel is worth what gold is. Shortages or scarcity, oversupply are all things that affect the demand and supply curve is part of the math you cant dismiss them.
If you can move everyone out of their homes, and start a lottery where the people who moved out will pick a house anywhere in the Tampa area, I would guarantee that S Tampa would get filled first, (maybe waterfront gulf properties alright). I am going to stop after this because its is getting inane, if one person thinks S tampa has a traffic problem, or another's persons kid cant find a place for lunch, fine.

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by tinytrump

Base traffic is aful-- rem one year they had an event- gridlock... you want central-- Oldsmar- some folks many folks here are homebodies,,, and are happy with the corner, and thats great too--- nothing worng with that---

Oldsmar certainly is a great central location.

It is a lot easier to get to many "different" things from there, than from DT Tampa or especially South Tampa. I agree with the other poster who said South Tampa traffic is awful. Been there, done that....which is one of two reasons we eliminated it from our home search. The other being a bad location from things we like to do.

[PhotoProIP]

Originally Posted by bavariantransplant

Well said.

I have past through a few stages in my life and have a few more to go. Depending on the stage in my life certain parts of a city appealed to me more then others. Where I am buying now I would never have bought 10 years ago and most likely would 10 years from now.

Just seems to be a lot of my town/area is better then yours in this forum.

ps. tried to rep you but I guess I have recently, dont remember doing that.

^^^THIS


And:

Where I am buying now I would never have bought 10 years ago and most likely would 10 years from now.

Same here, 10 years ago I would have never lived where we live now; ever! and 15 years ago, I wouldn't have lived where I lived before we lived where I lived 10 years ago.

My personal preference of where I want to live has nothing to do with where my family "has" to live right now...because now we have to mind with schools too...when that was not an issue, I could care less, but this thing ties people up in various areas which they would not normally choose should "schools" not be an issue.

(Marie Antoinette:
Marie Antoinette - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
She used to tell the poor people to eat cake rather than bread when they couldn't afford the bread. It's an expression. Plane travel is for the rich, have you seen the fees? unless you travel with the clothes on you and nothing else it is a complete misery.

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by DUNNDFRNT

All of that is fine, but its another entirely different thing to say things that are just not true. At the end of the day whether or not an area is desirable is determined by how many people want to live there, the amount of people that want to live there determines the demand which in turn drives the price, so its clear to see which areas are more desirable than others, having said that I am sure the suburbs are perfectly fine for some people, as urban areas are fine for others in that much we can all agree.

Price alone does not determine which is most desirable. That is a common mistake people often make. Price is a reflection of two things. How many homes are available and how many buyers there are for them. So lets pretend location A has only 100 homes for sale, but has 200 people who want to buy there. Well the price goes up because there are more buyers than homes......even though there are only 200 buyers. Now say location B has 1,000 homes available because there are more homes overall, but there are 800 people we want to buy. Well the prices will be lower because there are not as many buyers as homes.......yet location B has four times as many people who want to live there. So the lower price of the two places is the most desirable. More people desire to live there. This really can show up on gulf waterfront property. There are fewer homes there than inland, so the prices go WAY up because there are enough buyers compared to the relative few homes.

[PhotoProIP]

Originally Posted by DUNNDFRNT

So it costs more is more valuable

That is major BS...I will tell you why: back in 2004 right around when that bubble was starting to grow homes that were not worth more than $200k were sold for $500k...under this "value" thing.

VALUE is when you find a nice area, with good schools, and with reasonable price ranges per what you get in a home (square footage, versus yard, and other amenities) and that won't make you house poor! Because not everyone lurks around 2 square miles, and some folks like theme park trips, and all sorts of other things, so trapping a HUGE amount of money in a house under this "value" thing is a dangerous thing to do which blew in many people's faces in 2007!

I find more value in a fat bank account, than a 4000 square feet home that's going to eat a lot to heat/cool/clean/tax etc! No thanks. Value is moderation, and knowing what you can afford, and not spend what you can afford, spend less than what you can afford so that your "value" stays in the bank for other things that make life more enjoyable. MY Opinion of course.

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by bavariantransplant

I agree for the most part but there is a thing called supply/demand.

I have only driven through South Tampa once so my exposure is almost nil. I did look online often at homes in South Tampa and although they were in my price range I felt the driving force behind what seemed like bloated prices was the fact that there was limited supply and a high demand.

There is a high demand for homes in Land O lakes, Wesley Chapel and New Tampa but there is also a large supply which keeps the prices from skyrocketing.

Bingo!

I just read this after posting above....LOL! Most people don't understand it, but you are 100% correct.

[The Villages Guy]

I am not saying anyone is wrong for only wanting to stay within 2 square miles, as some from ST are saying, but that would not be for us. My in-laws live in the Countryside area. That area has tons and tons of things for everyday life. So my in-laws never travel more than 2 miles and as a result miss out on so many great things. Before the discovery of my health issues, we loved to go everywhere and do everything.....even before moving here. We have always been discoverers. Here we loved to go to great restaurants, shows, beaches, parks, golf, etc. And not the same ones over and over, but different ones. Having the location we have has been fantastic for that, as we hit things right close to home, but also further away in all directions. We would never want to feel trapped in, in a more inland location or more isolated location like ST. The general Countryside area (Safety Harbor, Oldsmar, North Clearwater, eastern most Palm Harbor) for us was an ideal location and most desirable. And now that we are dealing with my failing health, we are even happier than ever that we chose this location as all my doctors, facilities and hospital are right nearby.

Now if we were young hipster clubbing types, then we would never pick the area we did. We would have picked Miami.

[tinytrump]

Originally Posted by PhotoProIP

That is major BS...I will tell you why: back in 2004 right around when that bubble was starting to grow homes that were not worth more than $200k were sold for $500k...under this "value" thing.

VALUE is when you find a nice area, with good schools, and with reasonable price ranges per what you get in a home (square footage, versus yard, and other amenities) and that won't make you house poor! Because not everyone lurks around 2 square miles, and some folks like theme park trips, and all sorts of other things, so trapping a HUGE amount of money in a house under this "value" thing is a dangerous thing to do which blew in many people's faces in 2007!

I find more value in a fat bank account, than a 4000 square feet home that's going to eat a lot to heat/cool/clean/tax etc! No thanks. Value is moderation, and knowing what you can afford, and not spend what you can afford, spend less than what you can afford so that your "value" stays in the bank for other things that make life more enjoyable. MY Opinion of course.

yeap this is true- overpriced is not true value- its the demand thing. when they start building more housing than the have "move ins"-- ahh prices will drop!

[housingcrashsurvivor]

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

...Likely within the next 20-30 years we'll see Tampa to Orlando and possibly even to Daytona, all along the I-4 corridor develop into what is known as a Megalopolis, similar to Palm Beach/Ft Lauderdale/Miami....

While looking at population info, I found an article stating what I'd said back on page 5 about the burgeoning Tampa/Orlando Megalopolis, which is one of the reasons I relocated here, to enjoy the relative lack (compared to south Florida) of development for now and to benefit from the impending development, how that will raise property values here later.

Population boom to bring sea change
"...What’s drawn less attention is that much of Florida’s population growth through 2060 is expected to take place within two broad corridors: the Tampa Bay area through Orlando to the Atlantic coast and the Tampa Bay area to Jacksonville.

Hillsborough County alone could gain 600,000 people to reach a population of about 1.8 million — and add 400,000 jobs to reach 1 million by 2040, mid-level projections in a University of Florida study indicate....

...Growth also might increase housing values, create crowding similar to what’s affected the ambiance of South Florida in recent decades and shift cultural attitudes...

...The three Southeast Florida counties and Pinellas County are very nearly out of vacant, developable land,” a consultant’s draft report in August for the Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization said....

“The impact is that Hillsborough and Orange counties, as well as other Tampa Bay, Southwest and Central Florida counties such as Lee, Polk and Pasco, will absorb a proportionately greater share of Florida’s growth than was the case prior to 2000.”...

The Florida Department of Transportation in April reported more than 7.5 million people and 3.1 million jobs are in the 15-county corridor planners call the Tampa Bay-Orlando-Daytona “Super Region,” the 10th largest U.S. regional economy.

As many as 5.7 million additional residents are expected in 50 years in a 60-mile-wide corridor between Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach and Melbourne.

More than 5.2 million people and 2.2 million jobs are located in a corridor FDOT identified between Tampa and Northeast Florida and Jacksonville, which includes portions of some counties included in the Central Florida study.

FDOT estimates the Northeast Corridor population could expand by more than 80 percent by 2060, with four of five new residents locating in the Tampa Bay area or in counties surrounding Jacksonville."

Here's a US Census visual showing density of the Fort Lauderdale/Miami Super Region (what this area will eventually become) and the current density of Tampa Bay alone before it merges with Orlando...






Per Census data: "Population density is expressed as the average number of people per square mile of land area. Distances are measured from the city hall or similar municipal building of the metro area's first-named principal city."