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Yea, definitely still a blip in the overall market, but it's been holding in the top ten EVs in China for two years and counting, so you were wildly off. I'm sure you're not surprised that a sub-10K compact car is now beating out the Model 3 in sales--after all, you were expecting all the top ten EVs to be cheap vehicles. Your projections were odd and I don't think you actually know that much about the Chinese market. I never said this was a game changer, and I'm not sure what that would be in reference to.
I think I'm saying pretty reasonable things about the semi. I've posted a decent, recent study and what my speculation is based on.
That's all true, but you actually have a record of pretty bad predictions. Even the ones you thought were good ones like the China projections that you took it upon yourself to bring up was wildly off. None of us know the exact details of the Semi's specs and how it'll pan out, but certainly you've done quite a few bad guesses in regards to Tesla and EVs in general which really make your credibility here much more explicitly nil'd out. It may be that you're focused on highlighting as many negative points as possible, so you're not really thinking about what the net balance is.
For example, you were concentrating on battery degradation as an issue for long haul trucking and talking about how differently freight works on causing duress to the battery if you run it to empty and fast charge constantly. That's likely to be true with no advancements in the battery cell chemistry or thermal management system and if they did run these things from full to empty and fast charge them all the way, but are all those presumptions going to be necessarily true? Did you consider that ddeemo's assumptions about how battery usage will go based on his knowledge and experience would be more accurate? After all, it seems likely that the 300 mile and 500 mile on full load Semis are numbers that are more about relatively safe maximum possible distances rather than what the actual expected operating distances will be.
Let's walk through this! It's a first foray for Tesla into this space, but they aren't the only ones doing so and they certainly aren't going to be the first since that's already been taken by BYD, Freightliner, and Volvo Trucks. Those companies have gotten contracts signed and have either completed or are undergoing pilots with some actually in regular usage now. On that basis, it seems like local and regional trucking might work for electric semis given current technology, and the Semi with its constant delays will be working with slightly more "recent" technology by the time it actually hits production.
That 300 and 500 mile targeted range for full capacity seems like a maximum, run-everything-from-full-to-empty kind of maximum rather than recommended usage. The reason I say that is because
- Tesla certainly loves big numbers to advertise and so use the biggest one that's not totally a lie makes sense for them
- Previous articles with a third-party (CHP) says that the truck beats "expectations" with a near full load going closer to 600 than 500 miles which sounds to me like they're doing a straight endurance test to run it down
- If these weren't maximums, but were something more like advised usage range, then Tesla would have such an incredibly large advantage over existing electric class 8 semi makers that are reputable that it would be kind of unbelievable (or would only be believable if they delayed this for a few more years to wait for battery improvements to get there but in the meantime other manufacturers could improve their offerings as well)
The semi is a single-seater daycab--this definitely does not seem like the kind of thing you use for long haul / OTR. There was a Ryder representative, a prospective client for Semi, that also went on to say that the Semi is targeting local / short haul routes. These 300 and 500 mile figures being what seem like maximum range figures also point to this being used for local / short haul routes. As a fairly large chunk of freight trucking (pg. 4, ES2) is in that 150 miles daily driving range and then another segment is in the 250 mile daily driving range, then these figures seem pretty primed for running something like an 80% to 20% range daily usage which fits the 300 and 500 mile figures pretty well for the Semi as well as what's current, common optimal battery usage numbers. This is certainly speculative, but I am citing various reasons for why this is from people who are prospective clients and certainly have the resources to vet large purchases, to competitors fielding similar offerings, to papers published by well-reputed institutions expressly looking into the feasibility of such, and finally to what's know about some of the technical details about EVs. Of course, you have to first have that hunch about some things to know where to look and actually having some modicum of experience with EVs I think does help in some regard.
It’s you bringing up my China predictions which have nothing to do with this topic at all. If you’ve got something to stand on then you wouldn’t spend so much effort trying to discredit my prediction accuracy of an unrelated older thread. The fact that you’re arguing about Tesla sales briefly leading one of China’s smallest market segments during its honeymoon period sounds desperate. And it’s not like you’re a Chinese market expert.
To summarize your angle here “your predictions are historically widely off base with tiny Chinese EV market share, but you’re right they’ll need to invent new battery chemistry to pull of a semi.” SMH
I don’t think you realize you’re on an island by yourself on most of these threads. Generally these start when somebody says “Tesla is going to dominate the world” . Then I post a couple reasons why that’s not possible based on current facts or trends, or Tesla’s previous history of over promising. Then you usually jump in attacking either my semantics, post I’ve made on other threads, or make up some fabricated batting average then spend the next 10 post defending it. After all that you usually state something like “but yeah, Tesla would be able to take over the world if they invent cold fusion”.
Your normal musings you post on these threads would normally seem logical and even add value if it weren’t for your opening contextless personal attacks you appear to use as some sort of justification as if you have a lot riding on this.
Tesla is growing over 50% YoY. In 2021, they will sell probably at least 80% more cars than they did in 2020. That's the BIG picture.
Rumors of Tesla's demise over the last 7 years due to cherry picked hyperfocused snapshots of specific sale drops have been greatly exaggerated.
So, Toyota, the world's largest automaker, sold 2,000,000 vehicles worldwide in 2020. Tesla, by contrast, sold 500,000.
For those who talk of world domination, Tesla clearly still has a ways to go. For those who talk about them being a tiny niche automaker, and/or failing, that's clearly not the case either.
Moreover, just look at what virtually every major automaker is doing with their multi-billion dollar investments in EVs, batteries and charging infrastructure. They're all following Tesla's lead - it's Tesla that has driven this transformation of the industry that's underway now (and also still has a ways to go). Were it not for Tesla proving that EVs can be cool, that they can turn consumers on, the established automakers would still be slumbering and making incremental improvements to their ICE vehicles.
So, Toyota, the world's largest automaker, sold 2,000,000 vehicles worldwide in 2020. Tesla, by contrast, sold 500,000.
For those who talk of world domination, Tesla clearly still has a ways to go. For those who talk about them being a tiny niche automaker, and/or failing, that's clearly not the case either.
Moreover, just look at what virtually every major automaker is doing with their multi-billion dollar investments in EVs, batteries and charging infrastructure. They're all following Tesla's lead - it's Tesla that has driven this transformation of the industry that's underway now (and also still has a ways to go). Were it not for Tesla proving that EVs can be cool, that they can turn consumers on, the established automakers would still be slumbering and making incremental improvements to their ICE vehicles.
The 2M figure looks like for north america. According to this site, Toyota sold 9.5M vehicles (including Lexus and Daihatsu) worldwide in 2020:
Overall you are correct about world domination being a ways to go. I believe their trajectory is clearly in the right direction at this point.
Just my personal opinion, but even at the full build out of Berlin/Texas gigafactories, I foresee a severely production constrained situation with Tesla. A once-niche company that many once wrote off as doomed for bankruptcy is going to start producing over a million cars annually very soon. This is just the beginning.
The Semi won't be without controversy, just like the Model 3 wasn't without controversy. But the Semi will do to the trucking industry what the Model 3 did to the compact luxury sedan category: catch the established players with their pants down and obliterate their market shortly after.
One of my gripes with Tesla is the introduction of a long haul semi when the “low hanging fruit” of inefficient diesels is garbage trucks, buses, etc. There are already electric garbage trucks ( by Tesla’s actual founder) https://www.wrightspeed.com/
Wrightspeed has been around for while, but it seems to not be making a dent in traditional diesel sales. I live in the type of town that bans plastic bags and straws, has a strict tree ordinance, is building a city wide bike trail network, but still chose to buy diesel garbage truck instead due to operating cost. That truck is budgeted to last 15 years.
Just like wealthy individuals have a choice on how green their cars are, mandates are only as good as a government’s budget. I remember listening to an African energy minister’s interview when questioning why they use coal plants instead of green energy. He said “we have to survive first”.
Only when the economy is thriving and governments are flush with cash can they afford to dictate what drivetrain their garbage trucks use. Once times get rough and people demand basic services, non economical expenses are the first to go.
I read somewhere that the Wrightspeed truck only has a 24 mile electric only range, with petroleum based fuel for range extension. In other words, this sounds to be like the BMW i3 of semis, which isn't a good prognosis since the i3 was rendered obsolete by the Model 3 and sunk BMW's reputation along with it.
Governments also consider total cost of ownership in their procurement decisions so the Tesla Semi should still be a compelling option since its TCO will rival that of traditional diesel semis. It's a matter of capital vs operational expenditures.
It’s you bringing up my China predictions which have nothing to do with this topic at all. If you’ve got something to stand on then you wouldn’t spend so much effort trying to discredit my prediction accuracy of an unrelated older thread. The fact that you’re arguing about Tesla sales briefly leading one of China’s smallest market segments during its honeymoon period sounds desperate. And it’s not like you’re a Chinese market expert.
To summarize your angle here “your predictions are historically widely off base with tiny Chinese EV market share, but you’re right they’ll need to invent new battery chemistry to pull of a semi.” SMH
I don’t think you realize you’re on an island by yourself on most of these threads. Generally these start when somebody says “Tesla is going to dominate the world” . Then I post a couple reasons why that’s not possible based on current facts or trends, or Tesla’s previous history of over promising. Then you usually jump in attacking either my semantics, post I’ve made on other threads, or make up some fabricated batting average then spend the next 10 post defending it. After all that you usually state something like “but yeah, Tesla would be able to take over the world if they invent cold fusion”.
Your normal musings you post on these threads would normally seem logical and even add value if it weren’t for your opening contextless personal attacks you appear to use as some sort of justification as if you have a lot riding on this.
Why do you continue with discussing your china predictions if, as you say, they have nothing to do with the topic.
I have experience operating and managing Semi vehicles, own several Tesla vehicles, charge a Tesla regularly, tow with a Tesla and experience with battery degradation but you discounted that experience even though you lack any relevant experience. I think you forgot that your first post to this thread (#12) was
Quote:
Battery degradation will be a huge issue. Current EV’s only use less than 10% of their capacity. Semis would use almost all of it which will degrade the battery much quicker on a vehicle expected to last 1 million miles. The center mounted driver position alone indicates Tesla really doesn’t understand the trucking industry.
You had no experience to be able to make those claims. My having experience with battery degradation, current EV battery use, Semi use and operational trucking industry experience of Semi's and that 500K is more the norm are dismissed in a discussion that is specifically about those exact issues that you raised.
You just seem to be trolling these threads to dispute anything that is said that might be taken as support, mostly with responses that consist mainly of speculation. In the past you have admitted to no experience, not invested in any meaningful way and you appear to have no motive to post other than your dislike of Tesla and their supporters. What are you doing here? Why do you care?
I think it is funny that you complain about personal attacks and others of going off thread yet seem to not realize when you do the same. This post is a perfect example, you are responding to a post that is 90% about the Semi, the only part that is not, is in response to your complaint about an old prediction being brought up. Your response on the other hand is about 90% off topic, with only a single line that serves to dismiss what was posted that was on the topic. That is not a discussion of the topic. The majority of your post is going off topic, primarily defending your predication and attacking the defense of his position. This in a post in which you are complaining about personal attacks and going off thread - doing what you are complaining about. This is just pointing out the hypocrisy - how is that for context.
FWIW - I am done caring about your posts and am only attempting to explain why. Please have the courage to not respond, I will not if you do.
It’s you bringing up my China predictions which have nothing to do with this topic at all. If you’ve got something to stand on then you wouldn’t spend so much effort trying to discredit my prediction accuracy of an unrelated older thread. The fact that you’re arguing about Tesla sales briefly leading one of China’s smallest market segments during its honeymoon period sounds desperate. And it’s not like you’re a Chinese market expert.
To summarize your angle here “your predictions are historically widely off base with tiny Chinese EV market share, but you’re right they’ll need to invent new battery chemistry to pull of a semi.” SMH
I don’t think you realize you’re on an island by yourself on most of these threads. Generally these start when somebody says “Tesla is going to dominate the world” . Then I post a couple reasons why that’s not possible based on current facts or trends, or Tesla’s previous history of over promising. Then you usually jump in attacking either my semantics, post I’ve made on other threads, or make up some fabricated batting average then spend the next 10 post defending it. After all that you usually state something like “but yeah, Tesla would be able to take over the world if they invent cold fusion”.
Your normal musings you post on these threads would normally seem logical and even add value if it weren’t for your opening contextless personal attacks you appear to use as some sort of justification as if you have a lot riding on this.
I said you had quite a few predictions that were off in regards to EVs and Tesla and then brought up a few. You brought up your predictions about China as being examples of good ones, but you were wrong on that as well. Yea, Tesla's been having two years and counting of a honeymoon period of selling a top ten EV in China which is pretty directly counter to what you said, so the point is it's still yet another wrong prediction. I'm not saying I'm an expert on the Chinese market (though I do know Mandarin pretty well, lived in Shanghai, and actually have talked to people about the car buying process who do have cars while there including people with Teslas), but I will say that you seem to not be a Chinese market expert nor an EV expert nor an expert on semis. I have no idea what your area of expertise is, because I haven't seen anything that shows expertise of anything.
Even your summary is wrong. I don't say your predictions are wrong based just on the Chinese EV market share--I actually think you get a lot more predictions than that wrong and have a basic misinformation and lack of experience with EVs. I also don't think they need to invent new battery chemistry to pull off a semi. Certainly battery improvements help, but my response to battery degradation issues was "That's likely to be true with no advancements in the battery cell chemistry or thermal management system and if they did run these things from full to empty and fast charge them all the way, but are all those presumptions going to be necessarily true?" I don't think all of those presumptions are all true, and I went into what I think is the more reasonable explanation which is that these 300 mile and 500 mile semis might not be targeted for continuous long haul / OTR usage.
They're single-seater daycab semis with what seem to be 300 and 500 mile max range with payload. I linked to a recent study showing a huge amount of freight driving has daily routes shorter than 150 miles (drayage) and then another portion for less than 250 miles (regional trucking) which would work pretty nicely in habitual 80% to 20% SOC draw down over the course of the day for a 300 mile and 500 mile vehicle. Of course, these could ostensibly be used for long-haul and with using fast charging several times throughout the day, but with a daycab? Eh, doesn't seem like the primary market--especially since established competitors that are earlier to market with their semis also aren't anywhere near ready for habitual long haul / OTR usage with their vehicles, and I highly doubt Tesla can be *that* far ahead of everyone else.
I think as a pseudo-public forum where people can wander in without the context of knowing that your predictions are pretty bad and your habit is to cherrypick small bits without context or weighing overall pros and cons may be useful for others. They then don't have to go through arguing fruitlessly with you, because your main goal isn't reasoned argument. I've been around enough and remember enough of your posts on these forums to easily recall bits of where you went wrong--I also know how to use the search function! Also, I want you to know that I'm not angry at you or that this is personal in any negative way. I think you are kind of endearing to me!
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 05-17-2021 at 06:28 PM..
Why do you continue with discussing your china predictions if, as you say, they have nothing to do with the topic.
I have experience operating and managing Semi vehicles, own several Tesla vehicles, charge a Tesla regularly, tow with a Tesla and experience with battery degradation but you discounted that experience even though you lack any relevant experience. I think you forgot that your first post to this thread (#12) was You had no experience to be able to make those claims. My having experience with battery degradation, current EV battery use, Semi use and operational trucking industry experience of Semi's and that 500K is more the norm are dismissed in a discussion that is specifically about those exact issues that you raised.
You just seem to be trolling these threads to dispute anything that is said that might be taken as support, mostly with responses that consist mainly of speculation. In the past you have admitted to no experience, not invested in any meaningful way and you appear to have no motive to post other than your dislike of Tesla and their supporters. What are you doing here? Why do you care?
I think it is funny that you complain about personal attacks and others of going off thread yet seem to not realize when you do the same. This post is a perfect example, you are responding to a post that is 90% about the Semi, the only part that is not, is in response to your complaint about an old prediction being brought up. Your response on the other hand is about 90% off topic, with only a single line that serves to dismiss what was posted that was on the topic. That is not a discussion of the topic. The majority of your post is going off topic, primarily defending your predication and attacking the defense of his position. This in a post in which you are complaining about personal attacks and going off thread - doing what you are complaining about. This is just pointing out the hypocrisy - how is that for context.
FWIW - I am done caring about your posts and am only attempting to explain why. Please have the courage to not respond, I will not if you do.
It’s because you people keep bringing it up due to what appears to be insecurity. It’s not me who brought up the China thing and you who addressed my post not the other way around. Nobody ever asked you to care about my post. I sure don’t bother caring about yours.
I said you had quite a few predictions that were off in regards to EVs and Tesla and then brought up a few. You brought up your predictions about China as being examples of good ones, but you were wrong on that as well. Yea, Tesla's been having two years and counting of a honeymoon period of selling a top ten EV in China which is pretty directly counter to what you said, so the point is it's still yet another wrong prediction. I'm not saying I'm an expert on the Chinese market (though I do know Mandarin pretty well, lived in Shanghai, and actually have talked to people about the car buying process who do have cars while there including people with Teslas), but I will say that you seem to not be a Chinese market expert nor an EV expert nor an expert on semis. I have no idea what your area of expertise is, because I haven't seen anything that shows expertise of anything.
Even your summary is wrong. I don't say your predictions are wrong based just on the Chinese EV market share--I actually think you get a lot more predictions than that wrong and have a basic misinformation and lack of experience with EVs. I also don't think they need to invent new battery chemistry to pull off a semi. Certainly battery improvements help, but my response to battery degradation issues was "That's likely to be true with no advancements in the battery cell chemistry or thermal management system and if they did run these things from full to empty and fast charge them all the way, but are all those presumptions going to be necessarily true?" I don't think all of those presumptions are all true, and I went into what I think is the more reasonable explanation which is that these 300 mile and 500 mile semis might not be targeted for continuous long haul / OTR usage.
They're single-seater daycab semis with what seem to be 300 and 500 mile max range with payload. I linked to a recent study showing a huge amount of freight driving has daily routes shorter than 150 miles (drayage) and then another portion for less than 250 miles (regional trucking) which would work pretty nicely in habitual 80% to 20% SOC draw down over the course of the day for a 300 mile and 500 mile vehicle. Of course, these could ostensibly be used for long-haul and with using fast charging several times throughout the day, but with a daycab? Eh, doesn't seem like the primary market--especially since established competitors that are earlier to market with their semis also aren't anywhere near ready for habitual long haul / OTR usage with their vehicles, and I highly doubt Tesla can be *that* far ahead of everyone else.
I think as a pseudo-public forum where people can wander in without the context of knowing that your predictions are pretty bad and your habit is to cherrypick small bits without context or weighing overall pros and cons may be useful for others. They then don't have to go through arguing fruitlessly with you, because your main goal isn't reasoned argument. I've been around enough and remember enough of your posts on these forums to easily recall bits of where you went wrong--I also know how to use the search function! Also, I want you to know that I'm not angry at you or that this is personal in any negative way. I think you are kind of endearing to me!
I’m only endearing to you because if it wasn’t for me these threads would die and you’d have anybody to respond to for days on end. I’m guessing this is probably your only source of human engagement.
You don’t actually make predictions. What you do is spend a few days arguing before agreeing with me to some extent while agreeing with nobody else and trying to be arrogant about it. Not one of your “search function” arguments have turned up anything other than an attempt to distract from the actual topic at hand.
Only a few of you on these forums think owning an EV makes you qualified to make predictions on everything from semis to Chinese buying habits.
I read somewhere that the Wrightspeed truck only has a 24 mile electric only range, with petroleum based fuel for range extension. In other words, this sounds to be like the BMW i3 of semis, which isn't a good prognosis since the i3 was rendered obsolete by the Model 3 and sunk BMW's reputation along with it.
Governments also consider total cost of ownership in their procurement decisions so the Tesla Semi should still be a compelling option since its TCO will rival that of traditional diesel semis. It's a matter of capital vs operational expenditures.
I think Wrightspeed illustrates the real world difference between possibility and practicality. Wrightspeed had a noble cause but it’s much more difficult to put into wide stream use. It remains to be seen what actually becomes of a Tesla Semi. I remember when Tesla claimed the “Solar Roof” was a real game changer https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...e-2021-5%3famp
I think a lot of people think Tesla can pull anything off, and a lot of this I think is due to propaganda and marketing. but in reality their batting average isn’t as promising as their market cap makes them out to be.
This thread is now closed. I'm leaving it intact as an example of how NOT to behave in this forum. Personal attacks, baiting, bickering and hijacking are all violations of the Terms of Service and have earned some members infractions. Everyone be advised: persistent violation of the ToS can earn you a permanent ban from the forum.
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