The Big 4 Texas metros in 2050 (Houston, Dallas: transplants, shop, rail)

[UTHORNS96]

This thread is what you think the four major metros in Texas (Austin, Houston, DFW, SA) will be like in 2050 in terms of culture, population growth, density, economy, transit, demographics, and all that other good stuff.

I'll take a shot at it first.

Austin: I'm betting in a metro of about 4-5 million with a white plurality followed closely by mexicans. The black population will will remain small. I look at it as being a capital of social media and expect Capital Metro to have the best mass transit in the state. Also, I expect the skyline to be the most aesthetically pleasing in Texas,though not the largest. "Austin will play "San Francisco" to Houston and Dallas's "LA"

Houston: Easily the most cosmopolitan city in Texas. A metro of about 9-10 million. I expect Houston to have the third largest black population in the country behind Atlanta and New York (yes, surpassing Chicago). Houston's skyline will be larger of course, but still behind NYC and Chi. Expect more infill and less sprawl.

DFW: Shopping and fashion capital of Texas. Second best mass transit in state (if they allow heavy rail it could be best). Probably the second prettiest skyline in the state. The demographics on this one are tough to call. I imagine the same as they are now with a higher hispanic percentage. Expect a metro of 11-13 million.

San Antonio: No idea, LOL. I guess they can be the San Diego to Austin's San Fran. The traditional, conservative, Hispanic aunt. LOL.

[jr1038]

Texas will simply trend towards Mexico demographically and socially. All of these four metros will be easily majority Hispanic.

Educational attainment will be miserably low in all four.

Inner-ring suburban areas in all four will all be bona-fide slums without public services (fire, police, etc.). Some exburbs will also be slums.

Also between now and then I suspect there will emerge a 5th large Texas metro of nearly the same size as Austin and SA: McAllen-Edinburg.

[ClarenceBodiker]

Originally Posted by jr1038

Texas will simply trend towards Mexico demographically and socially. All of these four metros will be easily majority Hispanic.

Educational attainment will be miserably low in all four.

Inner-ring suburban areas in all four will all be bona-fide slums without public services (fire, police, etc.). Some exburbs will also be slums.

Also between now and then I suspect there will emerge a 5th large Texas metro of nearly the same size as Austin and SA: McAllen-Edinburg.

Jeez, man, what are you saying? Get out now while you still can?

[spursfan]

Originally Posted by jr1038

Texas will simply trend towards Mexico demographically and socially. All of these four metros will be easily majority Hispanic.

Educational attainment will be miserably low in all four.

Inner-ring suburban areas in all four will all be bona-fide slums without public services (fire, police, etc.). Some exburbs will also be slums.

Also between now and then I suspect there will emerge a 5th large Texas metro of nearly the same size as Austin and SA: McAllen-Edinburg.

Sigh. Parts of this may be true but let's keep in mind that all the four metros (especially Dallas and Houston) have huge fortune 500 companies that lead the nation and bolster the local economy. It is worrying that education gets shafted so often in Texas, but Texas is still in pretty good shape considering the misery in many parts of the country. Other than the Mexico bit, you basically described Detroit and its decay. And I'm not so sure the metros (other than SA) will be majority Hispanic by then.

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

Originally Posted by spursfan

than the Mexico bit, you basically described Detroit and its decay. And I'm not so sure the metros (other than SA) will be majority Hispanic by then.

I think its very obvious DFW and Houston will be mostly Hispanic some time in the next 20 to 30 years.

[jr1038]

Originally Posted by spursfan

Sigh. Parts of this may be true but let's keep in mind that all the four metros (especially Dallas and Houston) have huge fortune 500 companies that lead the nation and bolster the local economy. It is worrying that education gets shafted so often in Texas, but Texas is still in pretty good shape considering the misery in many parts of the country. Other than the Mexico bit, you basically described Detroit and its decay. And I'm not so sure the metros (other than SA) will be majority Hispanic by then.

this is 2050 we're talking about here. Nearly 40 years from now. White populations growth constitutes a relatively small percentage of overall growth for these metros, save for Austin which had by far the largest white growth as a percentage of overall growth. If current growth rates continue, Houston will be plurality Hispanic in less than five years; Dallas would follow in a couple of decades. SA is already majority hispanic. Its not at all hard to imagine given the declining birth rates and aging population amongst whites. Austin might get there last, but I bet it becomes at least plurality Hispanic by 2050.

Nowhere did I say these cities wouldn't have robust economies - I bet all of them will. Texas is a cheap place to do business, although it will never be a major center of innovation like California. But a robust economy won't prevent a large underclass from emerging and that's precisely what's taking place in these cities today.

[spursfan]

Originally Posted by justme02

I think its very obvious DFW and Houston will be mostly Hispanic some time in the next 20 to 30 years.

The cities will, but I'm having trouble finding data on the metro areas as a whole.

[Mcallen Kid]

Originally Posted by jr1038

Texas will simply trend towards Mexico demographically and socially. All of these four metros will be easily majority Hispanic.

Educational attainment will be miserably low in all four.

Inner-ring suburban areas in all four will all be bona-fide slums without public services (fire, police, etc.). Some exburbs will also be slums.

Also between now and then I suspect there will emerge a 5th large Texas metro of nearly the same size as Austin and SA: McAllen-Edinburg.

Well thats not racist at all. Did the U.S. trend towards Ireland when the Irish rushed over? where were the Irish slums 50 years later?

[AK123]

Originally Posted by justme02

I think its very obvious DFW and Houston will be mostly Hispanic some time in the next 20 to 30 years.

From some current projections, Austin will be as well, though not as much.

[migol84]

Originally Posted by UTHORNS96

This thread is what you think the four major metros in Texas (Austin, Houston, DFW, SA) will be like in 2050 in terms of culture, population growth, density, economy, transit, demographics, and all that other good stuff.

I'll take a shot at it first.

Austin: I'm betting in a metro of about 4-5 million with a white plurality followed closely by mexicans. The black population will will remain small. I look at it as being a capital of social media and expect Capital Metro to have the best mass transit in the state. Also, I expect the skyline to be the most aesthetically pleasing in Texas,though not the largest. "Austin will play "San Francisco" to Houston and Dallas's "LA"


San Antonio: No idea, LOL. I guess they can be the San Diego to Austin's San Fran. The traditional, conservative, Hispanic aunt. LOL.

I'd say that by this time Austin and San Antonio will have a combined statistical area to form a megaregion of 7 to 8 million and I would call San Antonio the San Jose of Texas and Austin, the San Francisco. I still think San Antonio will be larger than Austin. I also don't think that Austin will ever grow much higher than 1 million in city proper. I also think the Asian community will expand and with the F1 Tracks and SXSW maybe Austin will get european transplants? (probably not) but I see Austin becoming more diverse by this time. I also agree... Austin's skyline will be one of the most recognizable in the US.