Texas predictions for the next decade... (Houston, Dallas: homes, organic, property taxes)

[cBach]

My predictions:

* A major hurricane will hit Houston sometime around 2025 and will flood the city again. Houston won't recover from this hurricane and oil businesses will decide to consolidate into the Austin/San Antonio corridor.
* Dallas will get hit by a very strong tornado that will severely damage its infrastructure around 2023, at that time telecom companies and other HQ will consider moves to Austin.
* Austin will grow so fast that is surpasses Dallas in population by around 2028 (city limits).
* South Padre Island will see extreme development as most people are priced out of Florida by high real estate prices and high insurance. SPI will become a mini version of South Beach as many Texans are reaching retirement age and still want to retire in Texas.

[DPatel304]

Originally Posted by cBach

My predictions:

* A major hurricane will hit Houston sometime around 2025 and will flood the city again. Houston won't recover from this hurricane and oil businesses will decide to consolidate into the Austin/San Antonio corridor.
* Dallas will get hit by a very strong tornado that will severely damage its infrastructure around 2023, at that time telecom companies and other HQ will consider moves to Austin.
* Austin will grow so fast that is surpasses Dallas in population by around 2028 (city limits).
* South Padre Island will see extreme development as most people are priced out of Florida by high real estate prices and high insurance. SPI will become a mini version of South Beach as many Texans are reaching retirement age and still want to retire in Texas.

Less people are moving to Ausitn compared to DFW/Houston, yet Austin still struggles the most with growth (highest cost of living and very bad congestion). Even in the unlikely event that people move from DFW/Houston to Austin, Austin simply wouldn't be able to handle all the growth.

I'm actually predecting the opposite of what you're saying and I really think Austin's 'growing pains' will be a major problem 5-6 years from now and cities like DFW/Houston will be even more attracting to people and businesses. As it is, more people are already moving to these two behemoths and has Austin's cost of living continues to increase and congestion worsens, people will have less and less of a reason to move there.

[Exult.Q36]

Originally Posted by cBach

My predictions:

* A major hurricane will hit Houston sometime around 2025 and will flood the city again. Houston won't recover from this hurricane and oil businesses will decide to consolidate into the Austin/San Antonio corridor.
* Dallas will get hit by a very strong tornado that will severely damage its infrastructure around 2023, at that time telecom companies and other HQ will consider moves to Austin.
* Austin will grow so fast that is surpasses Dallas in population by around 2028 (city limits).
* South Padre Island will see extreme development as most people are priced out of Florida by high real estate prices and high insurance. SPI will become a mini version of South Beach as many Texans are reaching retirement age and still want to retire in Texas.

I predict Austin roads will be so congested and COL will be so high that companies will no longer want to move there.

[ikoolu]

i predict i still will be alot happier that i moved to Texas and got out of the liberal hell hole of Calif

[Westerner92]

Unfortunately, my outlook on the 20s is generally pretty grim:

- At least two Harvey-sized storms will hit SE Texas.
- Austin, and likely the other cities, will regularly have their water treatment plants get overwhelmed by turbidity and algae blooms. Heavier rain events + warmer lake waters + political shortsightedness = increasingly often large-scale boil water notices.
- The largest forest fire in Texas history causes large swaths of NE Texas to transition permanently to prairies/cross timbers.
- A disproportionately high amount of Grammys will be won by Texas artists.
- Assuming we still adhere to constitutional norms, the Texas suburbs will be one of the main battlegrounds for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections. This is despite Texas' congressional delegation remaining 70%+ Republican.
- Hemp will replace cotton on the Llano Estacado as the Ogallala is drained and droughts make dryland cotton impossible.
- Many parts of Texas will manage to have major soil drought while receiving higher-than-average rainfall, keeping the lakes full while farmers struggle.
- The fracking speculation bubble pops. Small companies will go under, the Permian Basin and maybe Houston feel the brunt, and the big energy corporations will report record profits.
- Metro growth will slow as traffic, affordability, and climate issues rear their heads. We will hear the first rumbles of the Sunbelt boom reversing course.

[NewTexico76]

Austin's rapid growth will level off (but remain significant) and spill over to San Marcos, New Braunfels, and San Antonio, where cheaper property values and existing highway and other infrastructure will support rapid growth. SANATX will become a more cohesive "metroplex" like DFW

Houston's growth will level off some, but remain high in suburbs. Perhaps the greatest danger is an extended period without a major tropical storm will create a sense of complacency.

The "DFW" area will become a more polycentric metropolis - "North Tex" - as Fort Worth matches Dallas in city population, and the largest suburbs develop more urban cores.

High property values in large cities and the continued influx of people from other states will lead to the emergence to rapid growth of some smaller metro areas, with Denton, Waco, and Bryan-College Station having this potential. By 2030, a new major metropolitan area will emerge in central or east Texas.

A growing political and divide between conservative Panhandle and rural North and West Texas and the "Texas Triangle" and border. Texas will remain generally conservative, but more competitive. It will be more like North Carolina (a generally red state that can go blue in a strong Democratic year) rather than the next California. An increasingly conservative Hispanic and Asian-American population, divided more sharply between more established voters and recent immigrants, will offset some of the demographic changes.

Texas will officially become a majority-minority state, though immigration from Asia - especially India - may prevent Texas from becoming a Hispanic-majority state. The influence of Evangelical Christians will diminish with demographic shifts.

[C24L]

Originally Posted by NewTexico76

Austin's rapid growth will level off (but remain significant) and spill over to San Marcos, New Braunfels, and San Antonio, where cheaper property values and existing highway and other infrastructure will support rapid growth. SANATX will become a more cohesive "metroplex" like DFW

Houston's growth will level off some, but remain high in suburbs. Perhaps the greatest danger is an extended period without a major tropical storm will create a sense of complacency.

The "DFW" area will become a more polycentric metropolis - "North Tex" - as Fort Worth matches Dallas in city population, and the largest suburbs develop more urban cores.

High property values in large cities and the continued influx of people from other states will lead to the emergence to rapid growth of some smaller metro areas, with Denton, Waco, and Bryan-College Station having this potential. By 2030, a new major metropolitan area will emerge in central or east Texas.

A growing political and divide between conservative Panhandle and rural North and West Texas and the "Texas Triangle" and border. Texas will remain generally conservative, but more competitive. It will be more like North Carolina (a generally red state that can go blue in a strong Democratic year) rather than the next California. An increasingly conservative Hispanic and Asian-American population, divided more sharply between more established voters and recent immigrants, will offset some of the demographic changes.

Texas will officially become a majority-minority state, though immigration from Asia - especially India - may prevent Texas from becoming a Hispanic-majority state. The influence of Evangelical Christians will diminish with demographic shifts.

Texas already is a majority minority state to the best of my knowledge.

[NigerianNightmare]

My predictions.
DFW will hit 9,000,000, Houston will hit roughly 8,000,000, meaning the gap between the two will expand from the current 600,000 or so to another 400,000. Houston will likely not pick up much growth if anti-immigrant sentiment pushed by the current administration is kept by future administration throughout the 2020s.
Brazoria County takes over from Galveston County as the third most important county in Metro Houston and completely cements itself.
The 4 Collin County cities that dominate Dallas will be left behind headlines wise by the fresh crop of emerging cities within Collin County like Prosper,Melissa, Parker, Lucas. Also areas like Terrell will see massive growth as well.
Including the metros above I think with highway expansions being done and likely to be completed in the next decade a lot of the areas that where historically lopsided for seemingly no reason. NW Harris, North Brazoria, South Dallas, East Dallas. Will see a lot of growth not as much as their counterparts but generally less lopsided development will be the norm. The only place I can see bucking this trend is San Antonio as expanding north will only be beneficial for their city. With the possibilities of stealing Austinites buzz and the beating of the Hill Country mixed with the best San Antonio has to offer in terms of neighborhoods. San Antonio is likely to see the fastest growth in its Northern portions than anywhere else in the metro.

Because of how young Texas is, I actually think we are more likely to see the economic emergence of the Rio Grande Valley as the true 5th place in a Texas. Right now everyone from El Paso to Corpus Christi claims that spot but RGVs population and growth advantage will do wonders in the next decade even though not many people are moving there.

[cBach]

I think Corpus Christi may have an outside chance of becoming the next big metropolis in Texas if it continues to lure some of those LNG plants and industrial expansions.

I think Waco may grow large and become its own metro area as well. It may become a bedroom community of Austin as high home prices start to send Austinites out further and further.

[Treasurevalley92]

I bet Austin growth will slow down in the next couple of years as Portland has in the last couple of years.