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The indications from Norway are a "snowball" effect where once BEVs and PHEVs become the majority they begin to overtake gasoline vehicles very rapidly. BEV's started increasing by 10% per year.
This graph doesn't go into 2021, but there has been a huge change this year. For November 2021
BEVs: 73.8% market share
PHEVs: 17.4% market share
Most people aren't old enough to remember homes converted from coal to some other form of central heat. But the change was rather rapid. People didn't debate the cost per BTU of heat. They simply did it because coal was filthy and difficult to shovel or it was annoying to keep the automated feeders working.
It's more an indication of that people don't really care that much about propulsion method. Whatever does the best job at the best price wins. Since EVs are cheaper than gasoline cars in Norway due to subsidies and taxes, EVs quickly replaced ICE vehicles. If you look at a more basic compact crossover like the ID.4 or the regular version of the Ioniq 5, those are around $40,000 to 45,000 for a base model. For most people I think those vehicles will do just fine for the typical person in the market for a CR-V, RAV4 or other boring appliance mobile. The ID.4 is a bit cheap, I've sat in that one, but it's not so bad I think it's really a huge deal versus a Tiguan or RAV4 or CR-V that are $25,000. What's a big deal is that it's $40,000 rather than $25,000.
The F-150 XLT Lightning Premium and Lariat will probably be the volume models for consumer purchases of the F-150. They're around 57k to 64k, and another 10k for the extended battery. Gas F-150 with the V8, 4x4, Super Crew, Lariat trim is $52,000. For someone that doesn't need to tow the electric versions will do the job. It's just once again, a bit expensive. Is it worth the extra 10-20k or so more for an electric one? I think to the vast majority of people the answer will still be no. Of course there's so many F-150 sales that a few percent.
Absent a price drop I see the EVs as being basically the next Fiat or Prius. They'll sell in decent but small numbers for a time because they're a novelty and then they won't. The EVs that will do well will be the ones with some wow factor beyond just well, it's another mid-size crossover with respectable performance that costs $15,000 too much. Model Y is $59,000. BMW X3 M40i is $59,000. For the money I'd lean towards the BMW. But the reality is I would get neither. The most I can really see spending on that kind of a vehicle is the $35,000 a Mazda CX5 GT Reserve costs. It's down on performance, not as nice as the BMW but, well, it's $25,000 cheaper. The X3 M40i and Model Y will continue to sell. They've got that extra something which an ID.4 lacks. Nothing wrong with the ID.4. For $25-30k I think it's a good pickup. For $40k, nah.
I don't read Norwegian so I am having trouble figuring out the tax there. But I'll assume Ireland is similar to Norway. In the US the gas guzzler tax is a one time purchase tax. In Sweden it is a tax you pay for three years. In Ireland the carbon dioxide tax is annual for the life of the car.
While many countries use to tax on engine liters and the US taxes on mpg, the fairest thing is to tax on grams of carbon dioxide per mile (or kilometer). Prior to 2008 Ireland used to charge a premium for vehicles with engines over 3.0 liters.
Today, Ireland's CO2 tax is graded from €120 (~$136) per year for a vehicle with no emissions, gradually stepping up to €1250(~$1416) per year for a mid level car. The breaking point is 225 grams per kilometer. After that the tax is fixed at €2400 (~$2718) per year.
Using Subaru SUV's as an example (ignoring the cars), all of them are all AWD and emit between 249 grams/km for a top end Ascent and 185 grams/km for a base Crosstrek. So the lowest tax level would be €790 (~$895) per year for the Crosstrek automatic with either 2.0L or 2.5L engine, and €1250(~$1416) per year for most other SUVs, and €2400 (~$2718) per year for the SUVs with turbo engines.
A Subaru Outback Limited is $33,595 while an Outback Onyx Edition XT (turbo) is $35,145. An American must decide if it is worth the extra $1550 for another 78 hp of power, but an Irish buyer must also figure in the extra $1300 per year for carbon dioxide tax. Basically, I think most people would forego the extra power in the face of that annual tax.
The most carbon dioxide for any 2022 model sold in the US (that is not a Bugatti or Lamborghini) is 465 grams/km for a 2022 RAM 1500 TRX 4x4.
The least polluting car subject to a gas guzzler tax in the US is the Porsche 911 turbo which emits 311 grams/km. The 911 one of the few gas guzzler taxed cars with a 3.7 liter 6 cylinder engine. Of course, there are dozens of trucks and SUVs that emit even more carbon dioxide.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric
Since EVs are cheaper than gasoline cars in Norway due to subsidies and taxes, EVs quickly replaced ICE vehicles.
It is easier in Europe because the government not provides a $7000 to $8000 incentive like the US, but they also forgive the annual carbon dioxide tax. Many midsize SUVs sold in America would be subject in Ireland to the maximum annual tax of €2350 (~$2662) per year, which can add up to a lot over the life of the car.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 12-27-2021 at 11:35 PM..
I think there will be a forecast shock when they realize most consumers don't want an EV.
I think that you don't understand Toyota's point. They were originally saying that they only expect 15% of sales in the United States by 2030 to be pure battery electric vehicles. Toyota shifted their stance towards EV by increase estimate for worldwide consumption from 2 million to 3.5 million by 2030., and to pledge Lexus would be 100% EVs by 2030.
Toyota is still not saying most of the sales in the United States will be battery electric vehicles by 2030. They are saying that most sales will be electrified cars (hybrids or plug in hybrids).
============================================
The CEO of Toyota famously said the enemy is carbon, not the internal combustion engine (ICE). Carbon in automobiles is measured in grams of carbon dioxide emitted per mile (or per kilometer). Looking at the four most popular Toyota models in the United States (over 60% of sales) they all come in either hybrid versions or the highest emitting ICE version (usually all wheel drive with lots of options that add weight or add cylinders or use larger engine).
Carbon Dioxide emissions improvement from dirtiest version to hybrid version of four most popular 2022 Toyota models
-16% RAV4
-42% CAMRY
-38% COROLLA
-23% HIGHLANDER
For example the "dirtiest" Camry is the XSE version with a 3.5L engine with 6 cylinders (producing 287 grams carbon dioxide per mile) while the hybrid version only has a 2.5L engine with 4 cylinders and a non plug in electric motor to assist with propulsion (producing 167 grams carbon dioxide per mile) or an improvement of 42%.
Here is a list of all Toyota models for 2022. The first number is the cleanest version of the vehicle (in grams of carbon dioxide per mile) and the second number is the dirtiest version of the vehicle (also in grams of CO2/mile). The plug-in version of the Prius and RAV4 are not on the list.
166 -- 187 PRIUS
167 -- 287 CAMRY
171 -- 276 COROLLA
197 -- 282 AVALON
233 -- 279 RAV4
238 -- 238 VENZA
244 -- 249 SIENNA
248 -- 322 HIGHLANDER
No electrified hybrid versions of remaining models
281 -- 281 C-HR
290 -- 330 GR86 (sports car produced with BMW to be discontinued after model year 2025
hybrid versions of these models promised by 2025
377 -- 398 TUNDRA
377 -- 441 TACOMA
460 -- 470 4RUNNER
522 -- 523 SEQUOIA
The C-HR is a fairly "dirty" vehicle despite its small size. Toyota sells hybrid versions of the C-HR in other countries, but not in the US. It is not clear what Toyota will do with this vehicle as they promised to have hybrid versions of all vehicles sold in the US by 2025.
The argument for Battery electric vehicles (BEV) is that they produce no tailpipe emissions, not just a reduced amount. However the electricity to power the BEV plus the carbon dioxide released to manufacture the batteries means that BEV operations result in emissions.
Considering not everyone has a garage where they can charge their BEV at night, and not everyone wants to recharge several times on a full day road trip, and not everyone can afford a BEV, that the government should consider allowing the sales of improved ICE engines like the hybrids above.
A hybrid version of a vehicle is a few thousand dollars more than an ICE version.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 12-29-2021 at 01:34 AM..
I don't read Norwegian so I am having trouble figuring out the tax there. But I'll assume Ireland is similar to Norway. In the US the gas guzzler tax is a one time purchase tax. In Sweden it is a tax you pay for three years. In Ireland the carbon dioxide tax is annual for the life of the car.
While many countries use to tax on engine liters and the US taxes on mpg, the fairest thing is to tax on grams of carbon dioxide per mile (or kilometer). Prior to 2008 Ireland used to charge a premium for vehicles with engines over 3.0 liters.
Today, Ireland's CO2 tax is graded from €120 (~$136) per year for a vehicle with no emissions, gradually stepping up to €1250(~$1416) per year for a mid level car. The breaking point is 225 grams per kilometer. After that the tax is fixed at €2400 (~$2718) per year.
Using Subaru SUV's as an example (ignoring the cars), all of them are all AWD and emit between 249 grams/km for a top end Ascent and 185 grams/km for a base Crosstrek. So the lowest tax level would be €790 (~$895) per year for the Crosstrek automatic with either 2.0L or 2.5L engine, and €1250(~$1416) per year for most other SUVs, and €2400 (~$2718) per year for the SUVs with turbo engines.
A Subaru Outback Limited is $33,595 while an Outback Onyx Edition XT (turbo) is $35,145. An American must decide if it is worth the extra $1550 for another 78 hp of power, but an Irish buyer must also figure in the extra $1300 per year for carbon dioxide tax. Basically, I think most people would forego the extra power in the face of that annual tax.
The most carbon dioxide for any 2022 model sold in the US (that is not a Bugatti or Lamborghini) is 465 grams/km for a 2022 RAM 1500 TRX 4x4.
The least polluting car subject to a gas guzzler tax in the US is the Porsche 911 turbo which emits 311 grams/km. The 911 one of the few gas guzzler taxed cars with a 3.7 liter 6 cylinder engine. Of course, there are dozens of trucks and SUVs that emit even more carbon dioxide.
It is easier in Europe because the government not provides a $7000 to $8000 incentive like the US, but they also forgive the annual carbon dioxide tax. Many midsize SUVs sold in America would be subject in Ireland to the maximum annual tax of €2350 (~$2662) per year, which can add up to a lot over the life of the car.
The C02 tax is just an additional tax on top of gasoline taxes. The price of fuel in Norway is nearly $8 per US gallon which is a result of the 78% tax rate on gasoline. On top of the 78% gas tax you have the carbon tax in addition.
There's still even larger incentives in Norway. There's a 25% VAT which EVs are excluded from so even on a basic $40,000 EV that's a direct $10,000 subsidy in tax exemptions. It's tomato, tomatoh. Call it a tax exemption or a tax credit and it amounts the the same thing.
Most people will vote with their wallets which is what Norway proves. If you make EVs cheaper either because they're actually cheaper or because you tax gasoline by 78% while giving away free electricity, free parking, assess a $25,000 carbon tax on an ICE vehicle while exempting the EV from $10,000 in VAT... people will buy EVs. Through tax and public policy, Norway has made more expensive EVs significantly cheaper to buy and own than gasoline cars.
Through tax and public policy, Norway has made more expensive EVs significantly cheaper to buy and own than gasoline cars.
But owning a vehicle is still much more rare than in the US,
5.379 million population
2.21 persons per household in Norway which is lower than 2.53 people per household in United States 2020.
That result is ~2.4 million households.
The municipality of Oslo had a population of 698,660, as of 30 September 2021
The city's greater urban area was 1,019,513, as of 4 November 2019.
The metropolitan area had an estimated population of 1.71 million (just shy of a third of the country's population).
The Oslo tram network has six lines with 99 stops and has a daily ridership of 132,000. There are also trams in Bergen and Trondheim. There are four daily departures between Bergen and Oslo and you can even do the trip overnight .
I've read that 40% of Norwegian households have access to one or more second homes, but these are often cabins without heat only for use in the summer.
There are 2,810,475 passenger cars for Norway (2020)
So with 2.4 million households and 2.8 million passenger cars I must presume that there are a significant number of zero or one car households in Norway.
I've always read that the average transaction price for a new car in Norway is well north of $60,000. I don't know if this includes the VAT.
The US has 122.8 million households as of (2019). In 2019 there were
107,180,635 PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL AUTOMBILES (INCLUDING TAXICABS)
156,080,086 PRIVATE AND COMMERCIAL TRUCKS
The indications from Norway are a "snowball" effect where once BEVs and PHEVs become the majority they begin to overtake gasoline vehicles very rapidly. BEV's started increasing by 10% per year.
This graph doesn't go into 2021, but there has been a huge change this year. For November 2021
BEVs: 73.8% market share
PHEVs: 17.4% market share
Most people aren't old enough to remember homes converted from coal to some other form of central heat. But the change was rather rapid. People didn't debate the cost per BTU of heat. They simply did it because coal was filthy and difficult to shovel or it was annoying to keep the automated feeders working.
That's all cute info. The cutest part is comparing Norway with the US for a multitude of reasons.
I think most of the post was how different the situation is in Norway. About a third of the country lives within round trip of a most BEVs. NYC metro area is only about 6% of the United States.
While an EV is the better financial choice in Norway than an Internal Combustion Engine vehicle, it is still very expensive so the ownership rate is much lower than the US roughly 2.8/2.4 or 17% more cars than households,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dub D
The cutest part is comparing Norway with the US for a multitude of reasons.
Do you believe you are an intellectual giant for observing that a wealthy socialist country of 5 million people ithat is swimming in revenue from oil companies is very different than a country of over 330 million?
Obviously the two countries are not comparable.
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