Is Tucson about to get "Boise'ed"?

[Achi WaWa]

The difference in COL, especially housing is one of the indirect problems affecting an area when Californians move in (actually any big city- those to the west of us are just more visible)... I saw it first hand in Oregon in the 70's driving housing prices up to where the indigenous working stiff (me) couldn't afford it any more (see what Portland has become now?). Then Denver and Seattle fell, along with a lot of "nice places" throughout the west... People want to escape the high cost of living but end up bringing it with them.

They sell their California bungalow (that they bought cheap many years ago, for 800k to 1 million lets say)... then they find a new place to go that's cheaper in their mind (aka Prescott for example)... they can now easily afford 350-400k for a nicer new house on property (where they used to cost 150-200k) and a new car to boot with lots left in the bank for shopping.

The new area welcomes them with open arms and life is good. However there is still that guy who has been working and saving for years wanting to buy a place of his own for his family... he's almost able to afford it when all of a sudden the price of homes skyrockets and once again, homes in decent neighborhoods aren't affordable anymore... how did this happen?

The builders and sellers in paradise raised their prices to accommodate all the new money coming into the area. Yes, they are greedy too. Maybe not directly... maybe the new houses being built for the target market were a little bigger and had a few additional features (like granite counters) and were in gated communities of course... maybe the town building dept started demanding wider streets, traffic controls and sewer connections from the builders- all driving the cost of a house up. The the secondary market sees this and now there is a price gap to fill. Rents soon follow to provide an alternative price point but not too cheap... and the circle goes on...

Considering the CoL and all the state taxes I really don't know how the average person makes it in California.
I have a distant cousin that was a typical working stiff, just getting along... he got a windfall when his parents died and left him their old subdivision house from the 60's or 70's that he promptly sold for 7 figures without spending a dime fixing it up. He then followed the above path to paradise and a nicer, cheaper place to live.

[Vincent_Adultman]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

Tucson won’t get Boise’d. It’ll grow at the periphery and near the University like it always has but it’s a proudly economically depressed area that will probably stay that way, somewhat on purpose.

The UofA is a great school and is a huge part of any success Tucson has, but as an alum, it is rare that it’s graduates stick around for long since upward mobility in Tucson is difficult.

That said I really like Tucson but it’s too slow for me to move back.

I went to UofA and enjoyed my time there for the most part, but I agree with you. I left right after graduating. There isn't much economic opportunity and outside of the relatively small downtown/University area the city doesn't really offer that much. Now if you like the desert landscape/nature and hiking and don't care much about urban amenities then you might love it, but for a lot of people, there's just not enough there.

Boise is more isolated but it has better job opportunities pound for pound and a more attractive and vibrant downtown area.

[Katera]

Interesting points. I appreciate all the input on my thread. From what I have seen recently, both Tucson and Phoenix are getting blasted with new residents which is causing the skyrocketing housing costs. For the life of me I just can't understand how people working as say a teachers salary can afford to buy a house anymore. It's very sad. My fear is that AZ is very very very close to becoming another unaffordable place to live. Which I guess would add it to the list of many other places.

[Hschlick84]

Originally Posted by Katera

Interesting points. I appreciate all the input on my thread. From what I have seen recently, both Tucson and Phoenix are getting blasted with new residents which is causing the skyrocketing housing costs. For the life of me I just can't understand how people working as say a teachers salary can afford to buy a house anymore. It's very sad. My fear is that AZ is very very very close to becoming another unaffordable place to live. Which I guess would add it to the list of many other places.

Home ownership will soon become a thing of the past unless you're rich or have a nuclear family. Majority of America will be the future of forever renters, single moms and bachelors.