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As far as my understanding Britain like Ireland is bound by the GFA. This means that the Northern Irish decide whether they will leave the union with the UK or rejoin with the rest of Ireland.
That's pretty much it, it might well happen that the balance in NI shifts at some point to the majority wanting to be part of the ROI, but until it does it will remain part of the UK. Both the UK and Irish governments are on board with that and I don't think it's actually that controversial as a principle these days.
That is in large part because Britain purposely gerrymandered a majority in certain areas of Ulster to help maintain rule over it.
And the US government didn't do that by encouraging settlement in native American lands and expelling the people that lived there previously?
In fact they gerrymandered the whole of the current US by settlement of such a huge scale that the previous owners of that land were reduced to under 1% of the population and therefore their opinions and objections were no longer relevant in the overall political picture.
Seems clear enough to me, a majority of people in N.Ireland want to stay part of Britain end of story, like I said its called 'Democracy'. Whoever did or didn't vote is irrelevant (and if they didn't vote rather stupid) I suggest those that boycotted knew what the result of the poll would be before the vote. You see this is how 'Democracy' works - its exactly the same in the US, people are asked to vote on their wishes and the majority gets their wishes granted (Democracy see). I have yet to see ANY Democratic vote ANYWHERE in the world that has 100% of the people voting the same way (though the Falkland Islanders were damn close with over 99% of people voting to stay part of the UK) but again that's called 'Democracy' its how 'Democracy' works and if the minority of people that don't get what they want from a Democratic vote then decided violence was the answer to get their way instead of accepting the 'Democratic' result then the UK would pretty soon turn into a country that looked lot like some kind of African dictatorship.
Unfortunately many people on this globe see the English (yes English not British) as some kind of evil race of beings that has subjugated the world. Hollywood perhaps? Scotland has also voted to stay part of the UK and that DOES NOT mean subjugated by the English but to remain part of the 'UNION' a union incidentally that came about when the king of Scotland took over the English throne and NOT because the 'evil' English invaded and subjugated (despite what Mel Gibson thinks).
Often the government of Democratic countries get a lot less than 50% of the population voting for them but if you want to be part of a civilised modern world you have to go with the majority (like it or not). Democracy may not be perfect but do you know any better way of governance?
That's the way it is in the US except for presidential elections when the winner could win the minority of votes as is the case, currently.
I don't think that vote is particularly relevant for the reasons you have stated. More relevant I think is all the general elections that have seen more people voting for Unionist parties rather than Nationalist parties. For better or worse in NI those votes are a pretty good proxy for where people stand on the issue.
I think that is fair.
Having said that, rest assured voter turnout for those not into politics, but wanting a untied Ireland, would be strong.
For example, here in America the Democratic party has been getting a large % of the black vote since the 1960's, though turnout among them is average at best.
However when Obama ran in 2008, turnout was at an all time high. So it wasn't just that an even higher % of blacks voted for Obama than do typically vote for a Democrat nominee, but their turnout was much higher.
While many of us might despise racial, religious and ethnic based voting, it is a real phenomenon. For example, Catholics turned out in droves when John Kennedy ran, and Catholics even crossed party lines to vote for him because of his religion.
Some said they did it just to break the stigma of America not having had a Catholic president. Some Protestants voted against him out of fear he would take his marching orders from the Vatican.
Needless to say that was proved to be nonsense, and mostly fear mongering by the bigots.
I know it is a two way street in NI, so some non political Brits will also turnout to remain in the UK, but whoever has more passion on the issue will likely carry the day related to actual turnout.
My guess is it will be the united Ireland crowd who are more passionate, but do enough of voting age have the actual numbers to make it happen?
That's the way it is in the US except for presidential elections when the winner could win the minority of votes as is the case, currently.
Correct, and that is because we are not a true/total democracy, and instead a constitutional republic.
Our Founding Fathers feared a true democracy where majority rule by one vote could carry the day, and the potential tyranny of the majority over the minority could be perpetual.
So while from shore to shore more people voted for Hillary over Trump, he won more individual state contests.
Having nothing to do with who actually won and whether we like or dislike Trump, our Founding Fathers were brilliant in having come up with a system were every vote counts within a particular states election, but the large population centers in a few big cities do not collective decide who will run the entire country. Frankly we never would have become a nation without such a system.
Needless to say NI is an all together different animal in that regard.
Having said that, rest assured voter turnout for those not into politics, but wanting a untied Ireland, would be strong.
For example, here in America the Democratic party has been getting a large % of the black vote since the 1960's, though turnout among them is average at best.
However when Obama ran in 2008, turnout was at an all time high. So it wasn't just that an even higher % of blacks voted for Obama than do typically vote for a Democrat nominee, but their turnout was much higher.
While many of us might despise racial, religious and ethnic based voting, it is a real phenomenon. For example, Catholics turned out in droves when John Kennedy ran, and Catholics even crossed party lines to vote for him because of his religion.
Some said they did it just to break the stigma of America not having had a Catholic president. Some Protestants voted against him out of fear he would take his marching orders from the Vatican.
Needless to say that was proved to be nonsense, and mostly fear mongering by the bigots.
I know it is a two way street in NI, so some non political Brits will also turnout to remain in the UK, but whoever has more passion on the issue will likely carry the day related to actual turnout.
My guess is it will be the united Ireland crowd who are more passionate, but do enough of voting age have the actual numbers to make it happen?
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Turnout makes it more complicated I agree, but I don't think there's any evidence that there actually is a nationalist majority in NI and they just don't turn out to elections. Sinn Fein is now the biggest nationalist party and people turn out to vote for them even though it means they don't get any representation in the UK Parliament because the SF MPs on principle don't take up the seats that they win there. So I think the nationalist community is pretty motivated to turn out in those elections, at least as much as unionist voters.
As a Brit myself I have no issue with NI reunifying with the ROI if most people want to do that, i also have no problem subsidising NI as long as it remains a part of the UK just like other poorer parts of the UK, that's what all countries do.
It's really a question that the people living there have to decide, and I think that the current position that both the UK and Irish governments agree on where they also say it is a matter for the NI people to decide is the way forward. The Catholic population is growing as a proportion of population in NI and while they might not all be in favour of reunification it's again a pretty good proxy for the unionist/nationalist divide. The last census put catholics at just over 40% in NI.
I think there is a strong possibility that the nationalist vote will exceed the unionist vote in the next couple of decades and in that case it's totally fair that there will be a referendum on the status of NI. If the unionists lose then they will have a choice between sucking it up and living in the Irish Republic or moving to Scotland or wherever their ancestors came from all those hundreds of years ago.
From the perspective of most Brits outside of NI the hardcore unionists there often seem like quite an odd bunch with their very socially conservative views on some issues, sectarian politics and burning effigies of the pope etc that nobody in the rest of the UK cares about (perhaps Glasgow in Scotland might have some remnants of that kind of thing) but despite thinking those things quite weird we are not going to actively throw them out of the UK against the will of the people there.
Every year there is a parade and kind of anti-Pope marking and bonfires in the south of England (is it Lewes) and wish I could remember the town so there is an interesting addition dear man. Those of us like me who celebrate historical events you got a dig at do NO burn images of the Pope nor go on about that false claimant. You really are acting very pretentious and know-it-all because you do not agree with issues.
As for Ulster there are people of the opposite RC side who are content to be in Gt Britain even if do not fit in with your strident style. The Irish Republic I would also remind you was not capable after decades of runnig itsle capable of much nor advance it's people so like other small countries dying to get into the EU and get the money bowl filled. I have no objection to the Republic of Ireland however that aspect of practical history has to be reminded. You can slag off Unionists as you want as we are meant to be in a democracy and have opinions and your fly wee digs at Unionism are interesting! A Unionists myself here on the mainland and proud to be one so do try and accept rights of different people in democratic thinking!
Every year there is a parade and kind of anti-Pope marking and bonfires in the south of England (is it Lewes) and wish I could remember the town so there is an interesting addition dear man. Those of us like me who celebrate historical events you got a dig at do NO burn images of the Pope nor go on about that false claimant. You really are acting very pretentious and know-it-all because you do not agree with issues.
As for Ulster there are people of the opposite RC side who are content to be in Gt Britain even if do not fit in with your strident style. The Irish Republic I would also remind you was not capable after decades of runnig itsle capable of much nor advance it's people so like other small countries dying to get into the EU and get the money bowl filled. I have no objection to the Republic of Ireland however that aspect of practical history has to be reminded. You can slag off Unionists as you want as we are meant to be in a democracy and have opinions and your fly wee digs at Unionism are interesting! A Unionists myself here on the mainland and proud to be one so do try and accept rights of different people in democratic thinking!
There is a decent amount to unpack in your post, but for now just answer this question.
When you say you are a Unionist on the mainland, do you mean something different than a Unionist might think of themselves in NI?
This:- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_N...nd_border_poll
Seems clear enough to me, a majority of people in N.Ireland want to stay part of Britain end of story, like I said its called 'Democracy'. Whoever did or didn't vote is irrelevant (and if they didn't vote rather stupid) I suggest those that boycotted knew what the result of the poll would be before the vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vector1
Ok, so you did reference it, but as you must know that so called "vote" was irrelevant to most people as it was seen not only as gerrymandered (aka Fixed), but also when you have one of two parts of the community abstaining from the vote, it will hardly carry any weight in the peoples mind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MnM258
I don't think that vote is particularly relevant for the reasons you have stated. More relevant I think is all the general elections that have seen more people voting for Unionist parties rather than Nationalist parties. For better or worse in NI those votes are a pretty good proxy for where people stand on the issue.
I believe the 1973 vote was relevant and indicates the futility of most boycotts. Yes, the union vote was ridiculously high, but 98.9% for union as a proportion of the 58.7% turnout still meant 58% of the voters favored union in 1973. That 58% number sounds about right if you look at the demographics of the 1973 population.
MnM's point about all the subsequent election results being more relevant is well taken too.
The numbers I've seen from the 2011 census are that Northern Ireland is 48% - 45% (P - RC). It's getting closer to the tipping point. Regardless, at this point in time, the only way to handle this is by referendum and all of the legitimate political entities have agreed to that.
If a republican majority eventually carries the day, I do wonder how well the transition will go in eastern northern Ireland where the ratio of Unionists to Republicans is still 2:1.
I believe the 1973 vote was relevant and indicates the futility of most boycotts. Yes, the union vote was ridiculously high, but 98.9% for union as a proportion of the 58.7% turnout still meant 58% of the voters favored union in 1973. That 58% number sounds about right if you look at the demographics of the 1973 population.
MnM's point about all the subsequent election results being more relevant is well taken too.
The numbers I've seen from the 2011 census are that Northern Ireland is 48% - 45% (P - RC). It's getting closer to the tipping point. Regardless, at this point in time, the only way to handle this is by referendum and all of the legitimate political entities have agreed to that.
If a republican majority eventually carries the day, I do wonder how well the transition will go in eastern northern Ireland where the ratio of Unionists to Republicans is still 2:1.
Undoubtedly the 1973 vote was going to be a useless exercise in futility from the Irish standpoint, because the Brits/Unionists had a gerrymandered majority which presumably would last a lifetime.
So even if the Irish Catholics participated the result would be the same, just not an absurd majority like it was.
As to MnM's point, I agree also.
I don't know if you read my post just a few pages back about how things have changed considerably just in the last 5 years with Catholic majorities in all sectors except for the 60 & over crowd, where Protestants still hold a majority.
As to your last point, that is the 100,000 dollar question. I have often wondered and periodically asked our Unionist friends in this discussion how their lives would appreciably change under the tri-color vs. the union jack. I typically receive no answer or a deflection rather than giving an honest assessment of how things would be different.
Maybe just the mere thought of it gives them the willies, but there is no reason not to have a pragmatic thought as to what would change for the better and/or worse.
Would some turn to violence, move as the DUP's Foster claims she would, or just continue on with their daily lives as if nothing had happened?
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