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It's looking increasingly like the 48 letters have now been submitted to the 1922 Committee, so the Conservatives could now be having a vote regarding Theresa Mays leadership and this has the potential to cause a leadership battle and a new Prime Minister.
It's looking increasingly like the 48 letters have now been submitted to the 1922 Committee, so the Conservatives could now be having a vote regarding Theresa Mays leadership and this has the potential to cause a leadership battle and a new Prime Minister.
Even if they get past the 48 they won’t manage to get enough support to replace her, there just isn’t enough support for a no deal scenario.
To be fair it would probably be a blessing if they do try and lose, May can then stare down the extremists and be confident of calling a vote on the UKs future.
It's looking increasingly like the 48 letters have now been submitted to the 1922 Committee, so the Conservatives could now be having a vote regarding Theresa Mays leadership and this has the potential to cause a leadership battle and a new Prime Minister.
Well if you want to think of it that way. Just wait until the UK Gov. agrees a deal, and we'll see the EUs Dog and Pony show, because it's got to get 27 yes votes.
But, I'm getting heartily tired of people saying oh it's a dog and pony show. Here's the facts. The UK voted leave the EU, our politicians have tried to give us that in name only, and are failing.simply because there's no intention of walking away, we know it Europe knows it, and that's not a negotiation, you can't negotiate when walking away isn't on the table.
There's not much to fear, sure it will effect the UK economy short term, the EU can't do much in the way of punitive actions because they're bound by the WTO.
If you imagine yourself losing 20% of your income, you'd think, we'll I'm screwed, except that if you actually do, you'd initially adjust, then do different things to make up the shortfall, like get a new job, take a second job, etc. Same thing with the UK, we'd make inroads into markets we're currently limited in, make new trade agreements, we're the 5th largest world economy, and estimates are always overwhelmingly low. New Zealand signed a trade agreement with China, it estimated that trade would increase and in 20 years it would provide a 500% increase in 20 years, it achieved that in 12 months.
We can say, as a country, the only tariffs we place on EU imports are matching EU tariffs on UK exports. We can say, as a country, the only limitations on EU citizens entry, employment and stay in the UK are matched by EU restrictions on UK citizens in the EU. We can say we'll have frictionless goods transit, with the EU provided the EU corresponds.
All that eliminates EU demands on the Irish border, UNLESS, the EU act differently, that's entirely up to them, and, we should be very public about it. Right now the EU are doing the same as I would in the same situation, they're being douches, because they know we'll not hit the eject button.
Maybe new leadership will have their finger on the eject button, because without that, we're not going to get a written agreement that meets people's desires.
Well if you want to think of it that way. Just wait until the UK Gov. agrees a deal, and we'll see the EUs Dog and Pony show, because it's got to get 27 yes votes.
But, I'm getting heartily tired of people saying oh it's a dog and pony show. Here's the facts. The UK voted leave the EU, our politicians have tried to give us that in name only, and are failing.simply because there's no intention of walking away, we know it Europe knows it, and that's not a negotiation, you can't negotiate when walking away isn't on the table.
There's not much to fear, sure it will effect the UK economy short term, the EU can't do much in the way of punitive actions because they're bound by the WTO.
If you imagine yourself losing 20% of your income, you'd think, we'll I'm screwed, except that if you actually do, you'd initially adjust, then do different things to make up the shortfall, like get a new job, take a second job, etc. Same thing with the UK, we'd make inroads into markets we're currently limited in, make new trade agreements, we're the 5th largest world economy, and estimates are always overwhelmingly low. New Zealand signed a trade agreement with China, it estimated that trade would increase and in 20 years it would provide a 500% increase in 20 years, it achieved that in 12 months.
We can say, as a country, the only tariffs we place on EU imports are matching EU tariffs on UK exports. We can say, as a country, the only limitations on EU citizens entry, employment and stay in the UK are matched by EU restrictions on UK citizens in the EU. We can say we'll have frictionless goods transit, with the EU provided the EU corresponds.
All that eliminates EU demands on the Irish border, UNLESS, the EU act differently, that's entirely up to them, and, we should be very public about it. Right now the EU are doing the same as I would in the same situation, they're being douches, because they know we'll not hit the eject button.
Maybe new leadership will have their finger on the eject button, because without that, we're not going to get a written agreement that meets people's desires.
All sounds great but in reality trying to do deals with countries half way round the world isn't the same as dealing with your neighbours next door.
50% of all trade goes back and forth between the UK and the EU and most of this is time critical, like foods, medicine, energy, peoples lives and livelihoods rely on this cooperation more than people realise.
The powers that be know the UK and EU need to continue the closest possible relationship and Brexit is nothing short of self harm.
Yes the UK will survive, no it will not flourish without seamless trade with the EU no matter how jingoistic you want to wrap it up.
Reading the European press over the last few days is eyeopening, they are gobsmacked that the UK has fallen so low, most European countries saw Britain has the sensible one
Last edited by britinspain; 12-12-2018 at 03:31 AM..
Even if they get past the 48 they won’t manage to get enough support to replace her, there just isn’t enough support for a no deal scenario.
To be fair it would probably be a blessing if they do try and lose, May can then stare down the extremists and be confident of calling a vote on the UKs future.
There is a very realistic possibility trhat she will now be replaced given recent events.
Indeed many MP's didn't want her taling them in to a second election given her dismal performance in the previous election.
Those that might stand in a leadership contest include Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove etc.
The first secret vote is tonight, if May doesn't win that, thewn there is a second vote.
If she is defeated she will become care taker PM whilst the Tories spend 6 weeks holding a leadership contest.
If she wins the vote, she is safe from a further leadership challenge for the next year.
The Labour Party will also be trying to force a no-confidence vote in the Government, however that is unlikely to succeed, given the 2010 rule changes.
Last edited by Brave New World; 12-12-2018 at 04:38 AM..
There is a veery realistic possibility trhat she will now be replaced given recent events.
Indeed many MP's didn't want her taling them in to a second election given her dismal performance in the previous election.
Those that might stand in a leadership contest include Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove etc.
The first secret vote is tonight, if May doesn't win that, thewn there is a second vote.
If she is defeated she will become care taker PM whilst the Tories spend 6 weeks holding a leadership contest.
If she wins the vote, she is safe from a further leadership challenge for the next year.
The Labour Party will also be trying to force a no-confidence vote in the Government, however that is unlikely to succeed, given the 2010 rule changes.
It is funny how we all see the same things but draw different conclusions.
If and its a big if, she lost the vote tonight I really can't see parliament voting for any of those you mention to replace her.
Quote:
Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove etc.
If Parliament wanted a real Brexit like these MP's desperately do the UK would not have negotiated such a terrible deal, they would have gone in from the beginning with Gungnirs theory of threatening to walk away and meant it, they haven't so in my eyes the majority have always been looking at a way of staying in either by name only or to not leave at all.
I don't think anythings changed with the arithmetic of parliament.
Yes the UK will survive, no it will not flourish without seamless trade with the EU no matter how jingoistic you want to wrap it up.
Reading the European press over the last few days is eyeopening, they are gobsmacked that the UK has fallen so low, most European countries saw Britain has the sensible one
Yes to the first....
and if anything a bigger yes to the second. The continental Europeans I live among (and some of the resident Brits as well) are truly stunned by how much xenophobia has surfaced among Brits during this process, as well as the time spent foot-dragging and nose-thumbing each other on the part of their political leaders.
The Americans recently treated the world to the spectacle of their Kavanaugh Congressional hearing, which was a profound embarrassment no matter what parties conduct you choose to examine. Brexit has been the same type of all-around mess inflated to the nth degree.
I don't think the lasting negative effects of the American Kavanaugh farce will be felt in the judicial system of the country, but elsewhere in the society. And, similarly, I can see the Brexit mess having its major long term negative impact not on the UK economy, but in the society and politics of the nation.
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