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A lot of talk about gentrification reducing homicide, but seriously gentrified DC still has a homicide rate of 20-25 per 100k, while very ungentrified places like Bridgeport, CT, Paterson, NJ, and Prince Georges County's MD have rates have around 10 per 100k. 20%+ of all three places were foreign born compared to just 14% in DC, which has fewer foreign born residents as a share of its population than its suburban counties.
PG County is an interesting contrast to Baltimore. It's also 60%+ African-American, has fewer non-Hispanic white people as a share of population than Baltimore, but 1/4 of the people who live there were born overseas, compared to just 7% in Baltimore. It's got less than 1/5th the homicide rate of Baltimore, as do the Bronx and Bridgeport.
Los Angeles, which has seen its homicide rate fall nearly 90% the last 30 years, one of the biggest drops in the country, is 37% foreign born. Meanwhile gentrifying Atlanta, much like DC, is stuck in the low 20s per 100k, about 4x the rate of LA. Atlanta is only 7% foreign born, with most of the region's immigrants moving to suburban counties, as is also the case in DC.
While there are plenty of places with moderate homicide rates and moderate rates of immigration, especially in the Sunbelt, those places never had seriously high rates like LA, NY, PG County, etc. It seems that in terms of REDUCING homicide, immigration is doing far more than gentrification. Am I missing something here?
A lot of talk about gentrification reducing homicide, but seriously gentrified DC still has a homicide rate of 20-25 per 100k, while very ungentrified places like Bridgeport, CT, Paterson, NJ, and Prince Georges County's MD have rates have around 10 per 100k. 20%+ of all three places were foreign born compared to just 14% in DC, which has fewer foreign born residents as a share of its population than its suburban counties.
PG County is an interesting contrast to Baltimore. It's also 60%+ African-American, has fewer non-Hispanic white people as a share of population than Baltimore, but 1/4 of the people who live there were born overseas, compared to just 7% in Baltimore. It's got less than 1/5th the homicide rate of Baltimore, as do the Bronx and Bridgeport.
Los Angeles, which has seen its homicide rate fall nearly 90% the last 30 years, one of the biggest drops in the country, is 37% foreign born. Meanwhile gentrifying Atlanta, much like DC, is stuck in the low 20s per 100k, about 4x the rate of LA. Atlanta is only 7% foreign born, with most of the region's immigrants moving to suburban counties, as is also the case in DC.
While there are plenty of places with moderate homicide rates and moderate rates of immigration, especially in the Sunbelt, those places never had seriously high rates like LA, NY, PG County, etc. It seems that in terms of REDUCING homicide, immigration is doing far more than gentrification. Am I missing something here?
Yeah, but there are other factors at play. Namely that in major cities, you have a lot more money and booming black-market industries. A large percentage of homicides in Philadelphia, DC and Baltimore, for example, are directly drug-related. The drug market is so large and profitable that there are organized underground businesses running it. As a result you have self-policing within these "business groups" to protect their mult-million dollar infrastructures. You don't get this in smaller cities or more rural areas. If you remove these types of homicides the rates go way down.
Basically, unless you are directly involved in some under-ground market (i.e. prostitution, drug trafficking and selling), your chances of being a victim are much lower than what the percentages show.
Fort Wayne, IN is slightly wealthier, better educated, and a lot whiter than Bridgeport, CT. But its 8% foreign born vs. 32% for Bridgeport. Bridgeport has a lower homicide rate.
A lot of talk about gentrification reducing homicide, but seriously gentrified DC still has a homicide rate of 20-25 per 100k, while very ungentrified places like Bridgeport, CT, Paterson, NJ, and Prince Georges County's MD have rates have around 10 per 100k. 20%+ of all three places were foreign born compared to just 14% in DC, which has fewer foreign born residents as a share of its population than its suburban counties.
PG County is an interesting contrast to Baltimore. It's also 60%+ African-American, has fewer non-Hispanic white people as a share of population than Baltimore, but 1/4 of the people who live there were born overseas, compared to just 7% in Baltimore. It's got less than 1/5th the homicide rate of Baltimore, as do the Bronx and Bridgeport.
Los Angeles, which has seen its homicide rate fall nearly 90% the last 30 years, one of the biggest drops in the country, is 37% foreign born. Meanwhile gentrifying Atlanta, much like DC, is stuck in the low 20s per 100k, about 4x the rate of LA. Atlanta is only 7% foreign born, with most of the region's immigrants moving to suburban counties, as is also the case in DC.
While there are plenty of places with moderate homicide rates and moderate rates of immigration, especially in the Sunbelt, those places never had seriously high rates like LA, NY, PG County, etc. It seems that in terms of REDUCING homicide, immigration is doing far more than gentrification. Am I missing something here?
Well I think while Immigration and gentrification definitely played a role in which Immigration played the bigger role. I still think these 4 factors are the largest ones to affect murder rates.
1. Removal of Lead Paint from houses, i'ts scientifically proven that lead paint makes people more susceptible to violence.
2. A general change in culture the suburbanization of the Black community has to many people lead to black culture rubbing of on white people, but they completely ignore that white culture has also rubbed of on black people as well. Black suburban areas are often seen as dangerous but their isn't a black suburban area to date, more dangerous than the inner city it borders, or draws from.
3. Change in the age structure- To me this is the biggest one, The American community is aging and by the 90s it reached a critical point where it transitioned from a society of 30-year olds to a society of 35 year olds. 35 is the age basically when violent crime which already started dropping sby age since your late teens and 20s falls of a cliff. Soon the median age will pass 40, and if it reaches Japan/Germany around 45, crime will be a drop in the bucket compared to even today.
4. The mass-incarceration of criminals as well as legalize abortion. Criminals are more likely to raise criminally inclined children and those who have abortions, sadly are those who are more likely to neglect their children (because they weren't prepared for it, hence the abortion/ if they have children in the future on purpose it's not the same thing) which leads to future criminals.
A lot of talk about gentrification reducing homicide, but seriously gentrified DC still has a homicide rate of 20-25 per 100k, while very ungentrified places like Bridgeport, CT, Paterson, NJ, and Prince Georges County's MD have rates have around 10 per 100k. 20%+ of all three places were foreign born compared to just 14% in DC, which has fewer foreign born residents as a share of its population than its suburban counties.
PG County is an interesting contrast to Baltimore. It's also 60%+ African-American, has fewer non-Hispanic white people as a share of population than Baltimore, but 1/4 of the people who live there were born overseas, compared to just 7% in Baltimore. It's got less than 1/5th the homicide rate of Baltimore, as do the Bronx and Bridgeport.
Los Angeles, which has seen its homicide rate fall nearly 90% the last 30 years, one of the biggest drops in the country, is 37% foreign born. Meanwhile gentrifying Atlanta, much like DC, is stuck in the low 20s per 100k, about 4x the rate of LA. Atlanta is only 7% foreign born, with most of the region's immigrants moving to suburban counties, as is also the case in DC.
While there are plenty of places with moderate homicide rates and moderate rates of immigration, especially in the Sunbelt, those places never had seriously high rates like LA, NY, PG County, etc. It seems that in terms of REDUCING homicide, immigration is doing far more than gentrification. Am I missing something here?
Paterson NJ isn't comparable to DC which you neglected to mention displays a strong correlation between gentrification and reduced homicides. What is PG county's homicide rate over time? I grew up in VA and never remember hearing about it being bad in that MD suburb.
This is an interesting one. Except Baltimore's median age of 35.5 is higher than DC's of 33.9, and about the same as LA's at 35.8.
Also the average age of a homicide offender and victim is about 33.
Median age isn’t a good predictor here. Why because it reflects a society, I.e in Japan the average age is high and the average age of homicide victims is high as well probably much higher than the U.S (from skimming their reports of victims lots of folk in the 40s and 50s getting murdered) and when the U.S was more violent in the 1990s the median age of homicide victims was almost certainly lower. In 2050 the average age of Baltimore and its victims might enter the mid 40s and homicide victims will be there as well or lower but the rate will decrease in real time because 40-50 year olds on the block won’t be banging hard or at all. Different dynamics.
A better example would be this... it’s a bit extreme but
Let’s assume that people only murder people around the same age as them.
A city has 400,000 people between 30-50, a city has 100,000 people between 20-30. In the group of 400,000 people theirs 30 murders in the group of 100,000 people theirs 15 murders. The weighted average age is 37 and the age of homicide victim is around 36 (can’t do the math off the top of my head), but one group has a murder rate of 15 per 100,000 and the other group has a murder rate of 7.5 per 100,000. One group is clearly noticeably more violent but the other group is so much larger that it skews the data.
Also theirs the fact that young people who are educated flock to D.C so even with its younger age the demographics are different. Theirs also city culture as well which makes places that are young hyperviolent or super safe but generally as any country gets older and the median age is Lready around 30 one decade crime falls of substantially two decades I’m not even sure if their will be any serious crime in a country like that although Florida is pushing it.
A lot of talk about gentrification reducing homicide, but seriously gentrified DC still has a homicide rate of 20-25 per 100k, while very ungentrified places like Bridgeport, CT, Paterson, NJ, and Prince Georges County's MD have rates have around 10 per 100k.
PG County is actually gentrified. When I was growing up in the area (Howard County) it was poor, black, and dangerous. It's still black but not so poor and dangerous.
DCs homicide count is all over the place, I don't know what's going on there -- from a low of 88 in 2012 to 105 in 2014, then 162 in 2015, dropped to 116 by 2017 then back up to 160 in 2018. I suspect you'll find there's still some non-gentrified areas contributing most of the murders.
PG County is actually gentrified. When I was growing up in the area (Howard County) it was poor, black, and dangerous. It's still black but not so poor and dangerous.
DCs homicide count is all over the place, I don't know what's going on there -- from a low of 88 in 2012 to 105 in 2014, then 162 in 2015, dropped to 116 by 2017 then back up to 160 in 2018. I suspect you'll find there's still some non-gentrified areas contributing most of the murders.
PG County also has a higher share of immigrants than DC, 24% foreign born vs. 14%. DC is odd in that most of its suburban counties have approx twice the share of immigrants as the city. Fairfax and Montgomery are both 30%+ foreign born.
Meanwhile, super dangerous Baltimore City is just 7% foreign born.
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