[cloven]

Hadn't rained for a week or more here.
Rain began right around midnight,
and more is expected throughout the week.

[Cambium]

Hope you all are enjoying the warmup again this week. Cold, warm, cold, warm. Seems like the pattern we are in.

On that note... Models agree that a strong cold front and a deep trough digs down into the northeast. That means cold nights and cool days next week. I'm thinking Sept 3rd to 6th.

As we move closer to Fall and winter and the averages start dropping and the sun angle lower, these cold fronts and Canadien highs will get more and more interesting with how cold they get.

For now we'll stay seasonable / slightly warmer then normal

[mels]

How is the Labor Day weekend looking? I don't mind the forecast for humid/80s for temps but it looks like NOAA is currently saying a 50% chance of t-storms all weekend long. I was thinking of doing some hiking but not sure if I want to risk getting caught out on an exposed mountain in a t-storm. Will this be a line of storms or random pop-up types?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by mels

How is the Labor Day weekend looking? I don't mind the forecast for humid/80s for temps but it looks like NOAA is currently saying a 50% chance of t-storms all weekend long. I was thinking of doing some hiking but not sure if I want to risk getting caught out on an exposed mountain in a t-storm. Will this be a line of storms or random pop-up types?

Because models are different with convection (Euro higher chances of heavy rains Saturday, GFS is Sunday) The overall setup is favoring unsettled. What that means is... there's a chance every day from now till Tuesday for Showers and storms. Someone might get nothing everyday, some might get something everyday. As good as technology is, they can't pin point where this convection of rain will happen at an exact time.

So yeah... chances are there to get caught, especially in mountains where there's better lift and source for instability rains.

It might be fun getting caught. bring an umbrella with a wooden handle. lol

I was going to say Saturday is better than Sunday but new updates showing that it's Sunday that could be better. Up in the air this weekend. If you don't have any tie downs (family, work, pets, ect) I say go for it on Sunday

[mels]

Good info as always, thanks Cambium!

[Cambium]

Next week we get an October like airmass dropping down.

NWS Burlington Vermont talks about the first frost of the season next week for Essex county & northrn adirondacks

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON MONDAY TO QUIET...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ESSEX COUNTY VT.

WED-FRI: WEDNESDAY...LOOKS DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SW-NE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE NEAR SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A COLD FRONT SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN. SHOWING 30 POPS WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THURSDAY AFTN. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONGER CAA AND SHOULD SEE LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS 62-68F ON FRIDAY. LARGER SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...AND OVERALL PATTERN MAY ALLOW A FROST TO OCCUR THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...ESPECIALLY IN ESSEX COUNTY VT. GOOD POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATOLOGY

[Cambium]

Euro temp forecast next 10 days for St Johnsbury Vermont and La Grande Quebec. Couple of cold nights/days coming up

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by mels

Good info as always, thanks Cambium!

I didn't follow the radar today. Did you end up going hiking? Did it rain anywhere in VT today? It was warm and humid here. Should be same for next couple days.

[Summerz]

Storm went through around 10:00 last night.

Hummingbirds are on the way out very early, down to just a sprinkling of them already.....odd.

[square peg]

Wow! nice day in the NEK. 80-ish with comfortable humidity levels and only fair weather clouds kicking around. The sky was pretty much clear at dusk. I'll take it.