Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Vermont
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 03-28-2014, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Windham County, VT
10,855 posts, read 6,375,064 times
Reputation: 22048

Advertisements

Here in southeast VT it's rain (near 40 degrees out), and is supposed to keep raining off & on through Sunday or so.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 03-28-2014, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Western views of Mansfield/Camels Hump!
2,062 posts, read 3,963,886 times
Reputation: 1265
Yeah we switched over to rain a few hours ago...35 now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 03:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
Reputation: 16634
Without getting too technical.. this morning was pretty interesting where the 3500-5000 foot level was above freezing, the surface was also above freezing but there were pockets in the atmosphere that were below freezing so some folks got ice, some got rain. See my Mt Washington post.

From James Sinko:
twitter.com/JamesSinko/status/449648577531625472

" NEK VT appears to show signs of developing CAD Saturday night into Sunday. This could shift rain to snow with heavy QPF"

"Also thoughts are for FZRA here in NEK Sunday before Daybreak. Anyone got an opinion on this? CAD comes in pretty strong in the morn hrs"

CAD is Cold Air Damming. High pressure feeds cold air and drains down the Northeast keeps surface cold and air is stuck while layer above warms.

NAM is colder than the GFS and shows enough cold air for snow in Burlington, not Ice.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
Reputation: 16634
NAM model prints 2 feet of snow for many areas of VT! Most likely overdone.

Maybe Burlington might enter Top 20 snowiest winters after this weekend. Currently with 83.7". Only 8" above normal but not done yet it seems.

Hope you guys are ready for some more snow especially north of Manchester I guess.

Here's the NAM model snowfall total... Don't go crazy, its usually overdone but there is a lot of moisture with this system so who knows. Wow!


twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/449654956208160768
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Western views of Mansfield/Camels Hump!
2,062 posts, read 3,963,886 times
Reputation: 1265
Okay, I'm confused. Going to the weather.gov/btv site with the anticipated snowfall totals, our projected totals have dropped from what was 8-10" (this morning's forecast) now down to 2-4"....but the NAM model is showing a boat load more than that! Why the big disparity? I can understand some differences but this seems like they're talking about two completely different systems...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 03:51 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
Reputation: 16634
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkln View Post
Okay, I'm confused. Going to the weather.gov/btv site with the anticipated snowfall totals, our projected totals have dropped from what was 8-10" (this morning's forecast) now down to 2-4"....but the NAM model is showing a boat load more than that! Why the big disparity? I can understand some differences but this seems like they're talking about two completely different systems...
Hmm, yeah I see that.. Says through 8pm Sunday. NAM graphic says through 03z 31st which is 11pm Sunday. Obviously ignore the NAM. It's one model and probably VERY off. Models are only possibilities unless it was a bad run then its a throw away. I'm curious why they dropped though. Are they anticipating more rain/ice which would hold down snow totals?

Have you read their discussion page? I'll try to post it later.

National Weather Service - Binghamton, NY - Text Data
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 04:11 PM
 
Location: Western views of Mansfield/Camels Hump!
2,062 posts, read 3,963,886 times
Reputation: 1265
Did a quick scan and it looks like, as you said, it's a high moisture system, but too much uncertainty about the temps to determine how much of it will be snow vs rain/sleet...and because of this uncertainty they won't put out a winter storm warning but most likely, far north will have storm warning conditions. I guess we should know more by later tonight/tomorrow morning, and hopefully have an idea of how warm the temps will be and how far north the warm up will go.

At this point, I'm not sure if I'd rather have the rain or the snow lol! The snow in the yard is still mid-thigh. At this rate, not going to see the lawn til Memorial Day.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
Reputation: 16634
Here's Matt's thinking.

https://twitter.com/MattNoyesNECN



Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 05:35 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
Reputation: 16634
Ok, so NWS Burlington says what I thought.. NAM is an outlier, meaning garbage, the odd ball, throw out.

They are still unsure because models trended a bit warmer (which is the reason for the snow total drop). It gets a bit lengthy and complicated so will just cut it short. There's so many factors and changes in the atmosphere with this storm its crazy. One minute its cold enough, next minute might not be then back to cold.

Also remember a rule of thumb.. if light precip falls from the sky and temps are marginal its hard for it to snow. But if precip falls hard enough then chances of snow are better. So how does one know where it will be harder precip falling or not? VERY complicated situation/forecast

WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COMPLEX SCENARIO AND THE WARMING TRENDS OBSERVED IN 12Z MODEL THERMAL PROFILES. BEST CHC FOR WARNING AMOUNT SNOWFALL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES WL BE ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS BY SUNDAY.

ANOTHER EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FCST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AND VERY COMPLICATED THERMAL PROFILES. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC AND ULVL FEATURES. NAM CONTS TO BE A COOL OUTLIER AND WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT

THINKING ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT IS LIKELY WITH SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN CPV. HAVE NOTICED BOTH ON THE GFS/ECMWF 925MB TEMPS COOL BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL MIXTURE WITH SLEET.

MEANWHILE...ACRS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WITH SOME MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN ABOVE 1800 FT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ARRIVES. THE TRICKY PART OF THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ACRS THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE DACKS...WHERE BOTH GFS/NAM SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SLEET/RAIN
FREEZING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM NOSE ON SAT NIGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE COOLING ON NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WOULD SUPPORT THE BEST CHC OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE CPV WL BE SAT NIGHT WHEN THE PRECIP RATES ARE THE HIGHEST AND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE IS NOT A FACTOR
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-28-2014, 09:29 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
Reputation: 16634
As of yesterday Burlington is having their coldest March on record. Considering records are from late 1800s (1884) that is impressive! 3 days left of data, can they make it.

National Weather Service - Burlington, VT

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:


Settings
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2022 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Vermont

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top