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Latest poll has Bowser with a very substantial lead. 43 to 26 %
Which is down from 56% Bowser/ 23% Catania in March (last WP poll). Her 33 point lead shrunk to 17 points in the period of time since her primary win. What this tells me is that she's losing voters at a pretty rapid pace and/or voters are beginning to think "undecided," which would give Catania and perhaps Schwartz a better outlook.
I predict something very different: Catania 41% to Bowser's 40%. Schwartz and any write-ins split the rest.
My prediction rests heavily on heavier turnout of the "new to DC voter" and perhaps the propensity of new white voters to prop up a gay independent candidate. It really is a toss-up.
Partner... those people will never show up to the polls. Despite Muriel Bowser's lack of appeal the people running her campaign will get her voters to the polls. Catania has never won with anything close to 41% citywide. Most people simply don't trust or like him. That's particularly a big deal with Black voters. My prediction seems awfully close to the WAPO's poll from today though.
Partner... those people will never show up to the polls. Despite Muriel Bowser's lack of appeal the people running her campaign will get her voters to the polls. Catania has never won with anything close to 41% citywide. Most people simply don't trust or like him. That's particularly a big deal with Black voters. My prediction seems awfully close to the WAPO's poll from today though.
To the contrary....Catania has a long record of success in city-wide races. Whether people show up to vote is the ultimate determinant. But based on history, Catania is not handicapped by merely being Cantania, or even being a non-Democrat. He will only be hobbled by voter turnout.
I'll remind you that only 27% of registered Democrats showed up for the primary in April...the lowest in DC history. That's not exactly a resounding defeat. It illustrates that a thin-margin Catania win is absolutely possible in this election.
Which is down from 56% Bowser/ 23% Catania in March (last WP poll). Her 33 point lead shrunk to 17 points in the period of time since her primary win. What this tells me is that she's losing voters at a pretty rapid pace and/or voters are beginning to think "undecided," which would give Catania and perhaps Schwartz a better outlook.
Schwartz wasn't in the race when that poll was taken. You'll also notice that Catania has only gained 3 points since March which is horrible. Many of the Gray voters who don't like Bowser will cast a protest vote for Schwartz.
Schwartz wasn't in the race when that poll was taken. You'll also notice that Catania has only gained 3 points since March which is horrible. Many of the Gray voters who don't like Bowser will cast a protest vote for Schwartz.
I also mentioned that this illustrates that there could be a lot more "undecided" voters, which could only benefit Catania and/or Schwartz. Bowser is losing support as time goes on. How in the world could that help her?? Even more importantly, how does that hurt Catania/Schwartz?
Which is down from 56% Bowser/ 23% Catania in March (last WP poll). Her 33 point lead shrunk to 17 points in the period of time since her primary win. What this tells me is that she's losing voters at a pretty rapid pace and/or voters are beginning to think "undecided," which would give Catania and perhaps Schwartz a better outlook.
You need a lesson in reading polls. The 56/23 was a two person poll. The current poll is 3 way.
You're whistling past the graveyard. DC is a dominant Democratic enclave and Catania is no Democrat. I doubt he'll even win the gay vote.
I also mentioned that this illustrates that there could be a lot more "undecided" voters, which could only benefit Catania and/or Schwartz. Bowser is losing support as time goes on. How in the world could that help her?? Even more importantly, how does that hurt Catania/Schwartz?
It helps Schwartz more than Catania. They will probably split the undecided vote 60 - 40. Either way Bowser will win by a lot.
To the contrary....Catania has a long record of success in city-wide races. Whether people show up to vote is the ultimate determinant.But based on history, Catania is not handicapped by merely being Cantania, or even being a non-Democrat. He will only be hobbled by voter turnout.
Bruh, this fool got into office during a special election where here garnered 10,000 votes with a 7.5% voter turnout. I'd hardly call his wins citywide a record of success. If anything this idiot benefits from low voter turnout. As voter turnout decreases his percentage increases.
I'll remind you that only 27% of registered Democrats showed up for the primary in April...the lowest in DC history. That's not exactly a resounding defeat. It illustrates that a thin-margin Catania win is absolutely possible in this election.
I fail to see how that will matter in November.
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