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Posting this here to since I might get some extra opinions.
Why is it when we get an early snowstorm around here we have a hard time cooing off again???
I just dont see any sustained cold or interesting weather coming up. Seems like the entire country stays normal or above now. Just so strange. Its so hard to get those cold entire weeks/months we used to get in the 60s and 70s, 20s, 50s, even 90s, ect..
Maybe things will change again but I dont see any cold worth noting until after November now.. There might be one or two nights but thats it.
Im getting tired of this fast flow in and out. Do those snowstorms have an affect on overall weather pattern? I have to look into this..
Maybe it pushes the blocking up north and keep the flow more zonal? I might have to check other years with early snowstorms and see how they did the rest of the winter.
Something I rarely look at but should look more into is the MJO..
Current MJO is in the COD (circle of death). Green line is the average of the yellow lines which is the forecast for this month. It wont get out of the circle until end of month. Thats another reason why the east is not stormy.. Once it gets into Phase 1, things will change. I'm thinking December will be active again.
I don't think that early snowstorms are necessarily connected to long stretches of colder weather. Once they're over, not much effect past a few days.
That's right. We've had two good snows up here in Loveland CO and a bit of cold weather, but after two or so days of cold, this break is always replaced by 10 or more days of ABOVE and MUCH ABOVE normal temperatures. This has been the pattern for years and years now. We can get snow, but the cold shots are briefer, less severe and there have been no prolonged cold spells in recent memory.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 17 2012 - 12Z TUE NOV 20 2012
THE MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE AND H5 PRODUCTS WERE A COMPILATION OF THE
13/00Z GEFS MEANS...THE 12/12Z ECMWF MEANS FROM YESTERDAY TO
PRESERVE SOME STRONGER ASPECTS OF THE FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG BOTH COAST...WITH SOME ASPECTS OF THE
13/00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS TO PROVIDE SOME DETAILS OF THE
SURFACE WAVES/FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH A VERY BENIGN PATTERN BETWEEN
85W-105W LONGITUDE (THE CENTRAL CONUS).
THE FORECAST LOGIC REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP TROUGHING
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA. A LOW-AMPLITUDE
FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO SPIN OUT A WAVE OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER
THE MID-MS VALLEY AND PINCH OFF THIS WAVE OFF INVOF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WERE GENERALLY ON
THE SAME PAGE WITH THE SURFACE WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STRONG...WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY DRAPED IN THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...STILL IN A RATHER
LOW-AMPLITUDE REGIME AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...APPEARS THE OPERATIONALS ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH AN
INCREASINGLY...MOIST AND BLUSTERY ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
ALONG THE EAST COAST. I DID ADJUST FOR THE GFS/ECMWF 1000-850MB
WIND FIELDS AND KEPT THE SURFACE GRADIENT RATHER TIGHT BTWN
MTP-HSE AND SOUTHWARD TO JAX.
THE IDEA THAT THE TRANSITION OF THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE FAST-ZONAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...STILL STARTS
AND ENDS OUT WEST IN MY MIND. THE LAST 3 VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH THE FLOW TRANSITION ALONG THE
WEST COAST...AND STILL TAKES A CUTOFF SYSTEM INVOF 35 140W ASHORE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST DAY 4/5. THE GEFS MEANS FROM 12/00Z
WERE THE FIRST INDICATIONS OF THE PATTERN WAS ABOUT TO MAKE ITS
MOVE EASTWARD...AND THE 13/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT. THE CHALLENGE IN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
ONE OF TIMING THE RELEASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SENDING THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...GREAT BASIN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE SOUTHWEST & 4
CORNERS. IF THERE ARE CHANGES UPCOMING...THEY WILL BE DIRECTLY
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO-SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS-NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AREAS. WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z OPERATIONALS TO MAKE ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENT THERE IF NEED BE.
This time of year (actually in early December) I head off to Florida, though last year I was in Califorina. Late fall early winter is a nice time to vist both:
Here is the forecast this week for southwest Florida:
Here is southern CA...not as warm as Florida, but still mild and mostly sunny this week:
.
Not sure, my mum was looking at las vegas. But my dad wants to do a cross country trip.
Meanwhile, a 10°C (50°F) high is forecasted here for Thursday, that's 7°C above the norm. If the sun didn't set before 4 PM it would feel like spring. Another drawn out warmer than average fall, just what I need.
Cold front is above me now. Thankfully today is the last double figure day and it will be back into single figures tomorrow.
Cold front is above me now. Thankfully today is the last double figure day and it will be back into single figures tomorrow.
I'm really not looking forward to those temps, our whole week is going to be that. Last couple days were in the low 60s (15-18°C) and it was wonderful.
Oh, I know how you feel. It was upto 55 here yesterday and it gelt like I was being strangeled. It was awful. The last time we had those temperature it was September so it's pretty pathetic.
We are apparently getting proper cold By the end of the month. About time too!
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HPC Discussion 11-13-12
