Fall 2012 Thread (September - November) (snow, warm, average, temperatures)
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Eugene has officially recorded only 0.02" of precipitation for the entire month of September...0.03" in August, 0.16" in July, and 2.24" in June which was the last significantly wet month in the PNW.
And there is no rain in sight.
Portland did not get any rain at all in August and has only received 0.04" for September.
I'm enjoying the dry and sunny weather though after a cold and VERY wet Spring.
3 Points on the latest GFS.
Then I see it has this. Its long range but I'm loving the looks of things for the past 3 weeks now. This is phenominal to see if you're a winter fan. Even if theres no snow out of this, this setup is just interesting.
Say hello to the Sub Jet and the Northern Jet. It was nowhere to be seen last year.
You have to admit, the GFS is pretty darn good with this one from 2 weeks out! Like I always say, watch the consistancy and dont focus on timing, strength, and placement of the low. In this case it could be pretty close.
Latest GFS shows accumulating snows across the U.S. Its showing up to half foot in northern MN and Montana. The left map is just for that 6hr time frame. Im not sure if it factors in melt so I'm going to say at least 2-3" accumulates there October 4th..
Then HR276 October 10th it shows snow to the northern Pan Handle of Texas. LOL! That I'm not sure I believe...
But like I been saying, the "pattern" is flat out interesting if your a winter fan. Lets see what happens.
I believe Eastern Ontario near the Great Lakes will see over a foot of snow.
Looks like October isnt going to be any warmer than September.
-3c uppers at the end of next week and 1000m freezing level. This would mean that snow may possibly fall to around maybe 500m at the very heavy showers. -5c uppers actually getting into scotland for a time.
You have to admit, the GFS is pretty darn good with this one from 2 weeks out! Like I always say, watch the consistancy and dont focus on timing, strength, and placement of the low. In this case it could be pretty close.
Exactly. If you interpret it correctly, the performance from 2+ weeks out can be surprisingly good. The October Blizzard last year was sniffed out more than two weeks ahead, though the details were really sketchy until we were 1 week out.
Quote:
Latest GFS shows accumulating snows across the U.S. Its showing up to half foot in northern MN and Montana. The left map is just for that 6hr time frame. Im not sure if it factors in melt so I'm going to say at least 2-3" accumulates there October 4th..
That's quite a broad snowstorm with some relatively heavy accumulations, which is very unusual this time of year. I really like those sort of forecasts that just say "3+ inches" or some such .
Quote:
Then HR276 October 10th it shows snow to the northern Pan Handle of Texas. LOL! That I'm not sure I believe...
It's not as if it hasn't happened before (October snow in Texas). We'll see how consistent the model runs are and if we get "convergence" on a snow around the 10th going forward.
How is it possible to snow at 35n in October when it rarely snows in Europe in october south of 55/50n? I don't get how everything in North America can go so far South when at that latitude in Europe it would be 25-30c at this time of the year.
Latitude is but one of many factors. You should also keep in mind that Europe is extremely warm compared to all other places at 50/55N. For Texas, higher altitude, being in an interior, away from warm oceanic winds, plus having much more extreme swings than Europe, and being away from the warm Gulf Stream help a lot. History doesn't lie in the case of these snows. Just last year Denver got a potent October snowstorm.
I can imagine that someone from Labrador, which is equally extreme for 50/55N (in this case extremely cold), could be equally perplexed as to how everything in Europe can go so far north.
Latest GFS Loooooong range around oct 13th. "IF" this happens, expect it to carve out a huge trough in the East. 988mb Low over Mid West. This would be a blizzard for Ontario and probably northern Minnesota/Wisconsin as well.
I wonder of that cold will help put the jetstream on a southern track on nw Europe.
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Its long range but I'm loving the looks of things for the past 3 weeks now. This is phenominal to see if you're a winter fan. Even if theres no snow out of this, this setup is just interesting. 
That I'm not sure I believe...
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