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Old 09-30-2012, 08:56 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
What does that have to do with it? Frost doesn't care whether crops are in the way or not.
Obviously it doesn't. But I assume that the frost hollow that got frost midsummer supports growing crops so I'm wondering how well they manage.
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Old 09-30-2012, 09:05 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Meteorologists Brett Anderson just issued his latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long-range forecast output that goes out to the week of Oct 22nd: Updated Weekly Long-Range Forecast Outlook - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com


It looks like most of the USA sees seasonable weather in October and parts of Canada see above normal temps. My area (the East Coast) sees warm and mild weather:






Last edited by wavehunter007; 09-30-2012 at 09:16 AM..
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Old 09-30-2012, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Brett Anderson is quite a heatmonger in his forecasts, in terms of the raw forecasting warmth/cold and in terms of actual results. He usually completely misses every period of cool weather that comes along. For instance, cool weather and even a snowstorm are suggested by every forecast model I've seen, but he completely misses it in his weekly analysis. I've also seen many more indications of a cool October than a warm one. Of course, it is Brett Anderson and it is just one forecast model, so I'll cut him a little bit of slack for that.
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Old 09-30-2012, 09:55 AM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Obviously it doesn't. But I assume that the frost hollow that got frost midsummer supports growing crops so I'm wondering how well they manage.
I'd say they'd be going fine. A few frosts do absolutely nothing to the plants, I had an air frost -1c in June 18th and nothing happened in fact my hayfever was awful this year. I've also had an air frost last week and it did nothing to the plants, there are still a few small flowers about. Most of the leaves are turned though. For a frost to be effective it needs to last and it needs to be lower than -3c
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Old 09-30-2012, 11:34 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Another gloomy, overcast, cool day. Currently only 63 F.
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Old 09-30-2012, 11:51 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
Another gloomy, overcast, cool day. Currently only 63 F.
I got sun here all day. We're not that far. But its waaay too hot for me. 67°F but in the sun its 1022°F <--- not a typo, thats how it feels to me. LOL

I guess its that time of year my skin gets used to the 50s and now 60s are hot. Just mowed the lawn and was sweating.
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Old 09-30-2012, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
today when hearing a weather forecast from one of the big weather media outlets (the Weather Channel, Accuwether…etc) or even our own TV local news…one must now always consider the marketing strategy at work.

Media outlets need viewers and on-line subscribers to stay in business, and like politics today, it seems they will go to any length to grab the viewer’s attention.

I guess my point is that now that the northern Hemisphere cold season is slowly spooling up, and the gods of marketing and media are revving their engines...


Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Meteorologists Brett Anderson just issued his latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long-range forecast output that goes out to the week of Oct 22nd: Updated Weekly Long-Range Forecast Outlook - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com

It looks like most of the USA sees seasonable weather in October and parts of Canada see above normal temps. My area (the East Coast) sees warm and mild weather:

That blog cant be right from accuweather, it goes against their marketing strategy you mentioned.
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Old 09-30-2012, 12:09 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Default Below Normal Last 2 weeks Sept. 2012

Past 2 weeks in the northeast has been below normal everywhere except for central NJ and a part of Maine.

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Old 09-30-2012, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Who's counting with me? Second time in a row GFS has shown this.

Keep an eye on the storm in the Mid West this week. The stronger that is, the more chances of Cold temps and snow in the northeast.

I'd like to see it sub 998mb low moving into Canada end of this week for better chances of the trough digging deeper across afterwards.

October 4, 1987 Albany got 6.5", the most in October.
October 28, 2011 Albany got 5.5" second most. It has snowed in the interior northeast but not common.


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Old 09-30-2012, 12:55 PM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
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From what I see today....certainly looks possible some early season snows in the higher elevations from central PA into northern New England as you posted.

Current ideas from most models is to develop a low and deepen it near Lake Superior Thursday and then move northeast....with a second pretty strong upper wave dropping south-southeast from central Canada into the Great Lakes late weekend and early next week to help deepen the upper low over eastern Canada.

Dan
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