White Christmas: The Odds for Real and Dream Climates (record, days, precipitation)

[deneb78]

I think here the odds are 11%

White Christmas (weather) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

However, the good thing is if I really want a white christmas, all I have to do is take a short drive to the north shore mountains and I can be virtually guaranteed one

[dunno what to put here]

Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus

The statistic that Dunno posted is correct, in so much as it's uncommon for 40% or more of the U.K. to have a White Christmas. It's pretty much unheard of for all of the British Isles to be covered with snow on Christmas Day. That's a completely different concept than the odds that a particular spot will have a White Christmas, which is what Owen was thinking about.

For instance, London's odds of having a White Christmas are 6%, 15% for Birmingham, 35% for Glasgow, 53% for Aberdeen, 22% for Belfast, and a whopping 75% for the Shetland Islands. I'm not sure what the definition is for these figures, but that gives a good idea of the odds.

Bearing in mind a white Christmas in the UK is snow falling on the 25th of December and nothing more. If a wintry mix of rain and snow was falling on the 25th of December, it would constitute a white Christmas, which I find ludicrous.

I don't know where to obtain snow lying figures for Christmas, and I doubt they even exist, and if they do, the Met Office do not want to share them with us.

[Patricius Maximus]

Originally Posted by dunno what to put here

Bearing in mind a white Christmas in the UK is snow falling on the 25th of December and nothing more. If a wintry mix of rain and snow was falling on the 25th of December, it would constitute a white Christmas, which I find ludicrous.

I don't know where to obtain snow lying figures for Christmas, and I doubt they even exist, and if they do, the Met Office do not want to share them with us.

As I said, it should give a good idea of the odds. Greater odds of snow falling is generally correlated with odds of snow being on the ground.

[dunno what to put here]

I guess, but not always - as is demonstrated by more snow falling than lying in the UK, most of it is probably sleety and transient in nature.

[Ariete]

The map on the left shows the average that all mornings between 24.12. and 26.12 are white (at least 1cm of snow lying on the ground). The dark blue indicates a certain white Christmas, orange a 50% chance. The map on the right indicates the maximum snow cover during this period. Perhaps a bit misleading, it might snow 10cm on Boxing Day and melt away the next one still this time of the year, at least in green or lightest blue areas (where 70% of the population lives).
For Christmas Eve in Helsinki during the 2000's (the most important day, when you get the gifts), 4 have been completely without snow, 2 had a trace, 6 had a snow cover, ranging from 1cm (2002) to 40cm (2011).
The max temperature was 6.3C in 2006, the low -24.4C in 2010.

And Patricius Maximus mentioned the Brown Christmas, we call it a Black Christmas. Funny detail.

[dunno what to put here]

They're Green Christmases here, since the grass doesn't die, it stays green, but stops growing. A green Christmas is the most likely outcome though..

[Ariete]

Originally Posted by dunno what to put here

They're Green Christmases here, since the grass doesn't die, it stays green, but stops growing. A green Christmas is the most likely outcome though..

Oh yes, I've heard this. Black here probably because the days are so short. The brown-thing just don't make any sense.

[dunno what to put here]

I assume it's because the grass turns brown as it dies off. Does the grass turn brown in Finland?

[Weatherfan2]

In Buxton, it's about 50% chance of a white Christmas. In my dream climate Coltingbury, about 5%.

[nei]

Originally Posted by dunno what to put here

I don't know where to obtain snow lying figures for Christmas, and I doubt they even exist, and if they do, the Met Office do not want to share them with us.

And for myself I don't know where to get snow falling statistics for here. The probability of snow lying on the ground is much higher than snow falling here. 50% chance of snow on the ground on Dec 25 while 30% of any precipitation. Guessing probability of snow falling is around 20% on Christmas Day.

Comparing two places by amount of snow falling rather than days of snow observed falling gives very different results. And a few flakes that don't stick isn't a white christmas, it's a tease.