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We've already had our first taste of Autumn; the last few days have been cloudy/rainy with highs of 15-20c.
20C is also first half of June weather for you right. Interesting how June and Sept. are so close in terms of temps for oceanic climates.
Not us. We've basically seen an extension of summer all month long. To date average high/low 28/19C with the next three days of near 90F/32C highs and lows of near or above 20C.
So how might this winter unfold for Europe
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What does this mean for the UK Winter Forecast? Well as ever nothing is certain but looking back though previous years (from 1950 – 2015) that have had a moderate plus strength El Nino to start the year and then had ENSO neutral through the winter, we come up with four years 1966, 1983, 1992, 2003. Yes we thought there would be more years as well and we are going to reduce these years to three because global weather patterns in 1992 were still heavily influenced by the effects of Mount Pinatubo thus the data is somewhat unreliable to use in a historical sense.
So taking the years 66, 83 and 03 combined we have generated an analogue for December which throws quite a interesting pattern. Higher heights are often portrayed to be to the west of the UK with a deep trough to the north generating an NW flow more often than not. This wont be an extremely cold flow but certainly cold shots will be felt with transient low’s but equally we may also get numerous warm sectors as well from these lows. So a mixed December looks likely continuing the changeable weather theme we’ve already seen this summer and autumn.
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January however paints a very different picture with northern blocking very pronounced with a strong signal for below average heights across much of Europe. This flow will bring cold air across the UK on a E/NE flow quite often and with it some wintry weather, particularly across eastern areas of the UK. Quite a cold signal here for sure.
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February shows another change in pattern with higher than normal heights across the UK, bringing generally dry weather. What temperature the air will be with this flow is difficult to assess. The flow could well come from the east, which would be a cold direction for the time of year but this largely depends on what air mass is across the continent at the time
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So in summary given the ENSO situation coupled with our historical data a mixed winter looks likely with a range of weather possible. That may seem like a bit of a ‘easy way out’ in forecasting terms but given the current guidance there isn’t a lot to go on. Our data at least points to January as being the most likely month for cold weather but it is entirely possible late December may prove cold as well. Equally December could prove a milder and more unsettled month with Febuary perhaps turning out drier with a mixture of warm and cold temperatures. As ever there are many days and weeks before winter starts and we’ll be updating on the run in once more data becomes available or indeed more clear
I looked at averaged 10 x 10 km May and September mean temps, and estimated the 'humid continental' boundary for the 1991-2020 climate normals (in green). The red colour indicates the boundary when Köppen did his maps.
20C is also first half of June weather for you right. Interesting how June and Sept. are so close in terms of temps for oceanic climates.
Many aren't that different to somewhere like Chicago, relative to the annual seasonal range. Glasgow has a September maximum 1.7C colder than June, while Chicago (MidwayAirport) has 2.5C. London has 1.2C, while NYC has 2.3C -not big differences when allowing for much larger ranges in Continental climates. I wouldn't include minimums, because of the big increase in cloud in the UK during September, when compared to the US.
Still plenty of Oceanic climates that are warmer in the first month of Autumn, than the first month of summer though - like here.
Many aren't that different to somewhere like Chicago, relative to the annual seasonal range. Glasgow has a September maximum 1.7C colder than June, while Chicago (MidwayAirport) has 2.5C. London has 1.2C, while NYC has 2.3C -not big differences when allowing for much larger ranges in Continental climates. I wouldn't include minimums, because of the big increase in cloud in the UK during September, when compared to the US.
Still plenty of Oceanic climates that are warmer in the first month of Autumn, than the first month of summer though - like here.
I was looking at the Means.
Chicago June is 3.3C warmer in June than in September while London is only 1.3C warmer in June than in Sept
There is 28% more sunshine in June than Sept in Chicago, and there is 27% more sun in June than in Sept in London.
Chicago June is 3.3C warmer in June than in September while London is only 1.3C warmer in June than in Sept
There is 28% more sunshine in June than Sept in Chicago, and there is 27% more sun in June than in Sept in London.
Looking at the Wiki boxes for Chicago, and the two locations shown,only come to about 2.4C difference. Less than the greater Chicago area average, but still shows the some areas are little different to London for seasonal lag, when the overall annual range is considered.
True, we're just 1,3c warmer in june than in september, and 1,6c warmer if we just look at the highs.
Problem: we are not oceanic.
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