Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I think there's enough model consistency and a flow that supports a stormy pattern so figured I start a thread to follow it. There's 3 or 4 separate storms showing up. 17th, 21st, 24th and 27th give or take a day or so. Someone will be getting a snowstorm from them, someone a rainstorm.
Lets begin with a post from Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove as he labeled the storms.. Enjoy
With the holidays coming on I figured I needed to start saying something about the sequence of THREE impressive storms which will affect parts of the nation.
1) December 19 - 23. "The Appetizer". Cyclogenesis near Galveston TX (origins in system now off the coast of California), then track to Columbus GA....Fayetteville NC.....200 miles south of Nantucket MA. Heavy rain and thunder Texas and Deep South, some severe weather threats close to the coast. Steady r...ain along and above Interstate 20 with snow and sleet involved in lower/middle Appalachia. Rain that forms along the Atlantic Coastal Plain above Richmond VA to Boston MA will shift to mostly snow. Threats for accumulating snow are rising in the Mid-Atlantic region (DCA....BWI....PHL....NYC), and if ECMWF scheme is right at least moderate amounts of the white stuff are possible.
2) December 22 - 26. The "Big Kahuna" storm. Upper level disturbance digs into northern Mexico. Reforms into frontal wave near Corpus Christi TX. Deepens as shortwave energy drops southward from Montana, which sets up a east, then northeast motion. Estimated track now is along Gulf Coast through New Orleans LA, then Valdosta GA....Raleigh NC....Salisbury MD....Concord NH....Fort Kent ME. Yes, path scenario is shifting rightward on models and may trend to purely coastal solution that analogs favor! This system will drop lots of snow on Appalachia and perhaps the lower Great Lakes, while being the draw for much colder air east of the Rocky Mountains.
3) December 27 - 30. "The Finisher" looks to organize near Brownsville TX, progress to Jacksonville FL, then move up and off of the East Coast by 125 - 175 miles through the 40/70 Benchmark. Analogs and ensemble depictions point toward a serious snow event in parts of Dixie and the Atlantic Coastal Plain. And yes, it looks VERY cold east of the Rocky Mountains in the 11 - 15 day time frame.
Happy Holidays!
I see my extended forecast hinting at a possibility of snow both days next weekend. I'm guessing this would be a part of the first system. I hope so. Timing would be quite ideal: a weekend right before Christmas. All very uncertain at this point, however. The rising "threat" of snow for PHL is music to my ears.
I see my extended forecast hinting at a possibility of snow both days next weekend. I'm guessing this would be a part of the first system. I hope so. Timing would be quite ideal: a weekend right before Christmas. All very uncertain at this point, however. The rising "threat" of snow for PHL is music to my ears.
Yup. Heres what NWS Philly says. The track they mentioned is great for a snowstorm. Just have to see details like temps and moisure available. That will come into play by mid week.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014
WITH THIS IN MIND, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COASTAL
LOW OFF VIRGINA BEACH DEVELOPS WHICH THEN SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TRACK ALLOWS FOR BOTH CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE FALL LINE AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL SECTIONS MOST LIKELY TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME.
INTERIOR AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE STAYING ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CENTERED ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ARE SILL UNCERTAIN IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO TO FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.
Some discussions around the area for Saturday-Sundays Storm this weekend
Burlington likes the slower Euro but precip would stay too far south for them
Quote:
THE ECMWF
MODEL BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COASTAL
STATES AND THEN REDEVELOPS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL THEN TRACKS
THIS LOW EAST-NORTHEAST PASSING IT SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W) ON SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA SET UP ACROSS CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER AND SOUTHWARD ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE BELOW SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WAS DONE TO
BETTER BLEND IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO...ECMWF HAS SHOWN
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
Upton NYNY thinks the storm stays to the south with the cold High to the north.
Quote:
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEARBY AND MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. SFC
TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE HIGH MOVES EAST THEN REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC LOW OVER TEXAS MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
STATES TRACKING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY.
NWS Boston energy still in Pacific and models wont have better data until Tuesday night when the system comes into North America..
Quote:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT... AS NOTED ABOVE...THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SHIFTING AROUND WITH EACH RUN. NOT SURPRISING AS THIS
IS 6.5 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE AND THE RELEVANT PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER ARE OUT OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN FAR FAR AWAY AND UNLIKELY TO BE SAMPLED WELL FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES
FOCUS ON BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW TO THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN
MOST CARRY IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF 40N/70W. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT
PCPN TO ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT ONLY TO
CT-RI-SEMASS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IF THERE IS ANY PCPN IT WOULD
BE SNOW INLAND AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
New Euro just came out colder and snowier for Mid Atlantic.
Look at the Data from Euro12z for Dover (0.16" qpf of snow), Baltimore (0.08" qpf) of snow, & Richmond (0.91"qpf of wow). No precip north of Philly. This would mean snowstorm for Virginia but not north of Baltimore! Flashback Nightmares for me. (2009-10)
Canadian north more with storm and off the coast.
GFS lost as usual. Absolutely garbage.
Upgraded GFS strong rain storm for most
New Euro just came out colder and snowier for Mid Atlantic.
Look at the Data from Euro12z for Dover (0.16" qpf of snow), Baltimore (0.08" qpf) of snow, & Richmond (0.91"qpf of wow). No precip north of Philly. This would mean snowstorm for Virginia but not north of Baltimore! Flashback Nightmares for me. (2009-10)
Canadian north more with storm and off the coast.
GFS lost as usual. Absolutely garbage.
Upgraded GFS strong rain storm for most
Interesting Euro model run. December 2009 was our largest snowstorm since 1996. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that. Of course, it could stay slightly south of here and I could get screwed out of it as well.
Interesting Euro model run. December 2009 was our largest snowstorm since 1996. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that. Of course, it could stay slightly south of here and I could get screwed out of it as well.
Old GFS complete garbage showing sunny skies Sunday.
Upgraded GFS has a NorEaster. Plasters Poconos and Northern NJ! and Vermont!
Old GFS complete garbage showing sunny skies Sunday.
Upgraded GFS has a NorEaster. Plasters Poconos and Northern NJ! and Vermont!
Yes, , , and to the upgraded GFS. I won't fret, though. It's still far enough in the future to have a lot of uncertainty.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
, and 
to the upgraded GFS. I won't fret, though. It's still far enough in the future to have a lot of uncertainty.
