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Hot summer will continue into Fall. No end in sight
From Paulie P's blog. Much more text with the blog if you have access to it.. Just posting some East stuff.
" The biggest update we made was to take temperatures up in the eastern United States. September was also adjusted somewhat, but November left alone. This increased and expanded the above-normal departures. In addition, we slightly warmed north and east of the cool area on the map. We may not be warm enough in the lower Mississippi Valley. This area is expected to turn around from the reason heat due to increase moisture in late September and October.
When compared to last year, we expected the biggest rise in temperatures across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast. If you remember last year, late October to November turned cold with snow (snow extending into the Carolinas). We do not expect this type of extreme for this region.
The Northeast and eastern Great Lakes can wind up drier than normal this fall, but temperatures will run higher early then fall back to average near normal. In fact, back toward the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, frost can occur slightly earlier than normal."
It looks like El Nino often means high rainfall and increased severe weather risk for Louisiana during Fall.
Connecticut is looking even hotter than Georgia. I checked my 10 day, and highs for Tue-Wed are forecast to be in the low-mid 80s, and we aren't expected to get near 90 until next Friday.
Kinda wish we had this kind of cloudcover back in early July.
GFS keeps hinting at a strong cold front in Northeast for September 9th-11th. Euro a bit slower for the 12th
Here is the new monthly update from the Euro for 850mb temps.
Notice the 10C line dips down to NYC, Long Island on the 14th. That means single digits aloft for CT northward. Perhaps the Coolest morning since early June in the Northeast. Cold morning in the 30s likely with this for northern tier & higher elevations.
Then notice another rotation for the 16th. 10C line is further north but the 0C line is further south. Another chilly morning.
New England stays on the chilly/seasonable side on the 19th
Then the Jet relaxes a bit and the Ridge pumps up again in East from the 21st to the 26th while cold air keeps pouring into North Dakota and Minnesota.
then single digits again by end of month for New England
You can basically see how things flow and rotate in Canada as it dips into the U.S.. Still early but we need that cold air to build up in Canada in order for the cold air to keep pouring into the U.S.
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