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Yup, I'd be surprised if we weren't heading towards another record mild winter such as 2013-2014.
The start of November here is about 3C above average so far, it seems that we will end up at least 1C-2C above average.. I just can't see where the cold will come from this winter to be honest. Atlantic blowtorch full steam ahead.
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There is one thing about this setup that is disconcerting to someone like me that does not like extremes of temperature. And that is, at what point does the Arctic unleash this very cold air on us?
It is just building and building up there with no release. By January that will be brutally cold. This is exactly what happened in Jan 1985. December was very warm, and then when it came down in Jan of 85 Charleston SC went into the single digits, and citrus farms were wiped out in Florida. It is a very dangerous and ominous set up.
And we all know that when the Arctic unleashes, it is almost always eastern North America that gets it due to all the teleconnections.
I wouldn't be surprised if we had a rapid transition to La Nina over the course of next year - the same thing happened after the last time we had a strong El Nino (2009-10) and if I recall correctly it was historically rapid at the time. No reason it couldn't happen again, though.
That would be a blowtorch pattern for early December in the East, possibly leading up to a massive release of arctic air later in the winter a la 1985. Then again, it's not as if the CFS has had much reliability at that range in the past year, so we'll have to wait and see. In more reliable ranges indications are there will be quite a cold, stormy pattern setting up toward the end of November, so if that pattern verifies it would be a rather abrupt shift - such a shift would hardly be unprecedented, though.
As for the pattern for next winter as a whole, it's worth noting that the pattern we're currently seeing is not typical of a Strong El Nino, with the Pacific Northwest being hosed, California not being hosed at all, and models showing a cold stormy look in the East going into Thanksgiving. Siberian snowpack and growth gave a severe winter signal (in advance of mild El Nino winters it usually doesn't), and the sea surface temperatures support a pattern more similar to last winter's than anything else - among other things the warm blob is still very much present despite lots of storms trying to eat it up (1997 had no such pattern). All this is consistent with a pattern where the Pacific ridge is very much present, diverting the hosing to the PacNW and the arctic air to the eastern U.S. causing a cold and snowy winter in combination with abundant moisture flow (which is one thing we are seeing that's typical of El Nino).
This is all just a guess, but I'd advise everyone to not expect a pattern consistent with a standard-issue 1998-type Strong El Nino, because our 2015 Strong El Nino is not acting like one. It's not based in the same area, its temperatures are going to crash much more rapidly than 1998's did, the ocean temperature patterns are completely different from 1998, and the pre-winter pattern is quite different.
There is one thing about this setup that is disconcerting to someone like me that does not like extremes of temperature. And that is, at what point does the Arctic unleash this very cold air on us?
It is just building and building up there with no release. By January that will be brutally cold. This is exactly what happened in Jan 1985. December was very warm, and then when it came down in Jan of 85 Charleston SC went into the single digits, and citrus farms were wiped out in Florida. It is a very dangerous and ominous set up.
And we all know that when the Arctic unleashes, it is almost always eastern North America that gets it due to all the teleconnections.
That's exactly what I'm putting all my chips on. I'm going all-in, baby. Let it be nasty hot for December, let that frigid air build up, let the subtropical jetstream get into the habit of sending storm after storm across the southern US.
And then...
Yeah, I'm dreaming, but I just can't help it...lol.
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