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Can't it **** off to Siberia or Scandinavia for once?
We all know everywhere in the world gets some big anomalies form time to time. I'm willing to bet that eastern North America gets far more frequent large anomalies than anywhere else on earth. The Arctic will unleash on us, it already did that in Europe in 2012, and I think Asia got it a decade ago. They have met their very infrequent quota of large negative anomalies. Our quota it seems is never satisfied. North America stinks in winter if you are a fan of moderate temp fluctuations. Eastern Asia is far more stable.
Location: João Pessoa,Brazil(The easternmost point of Americas)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
We all know everywhere in the world gets some big anomalies form time to time. I'm willing to bet that eastern North America gets far more frequent large anomalies than anywhere else on earth. The Arctic will unleash on us, it already did that in Europe in 2012, and I think Asia got it a decade ago. They have met their very infrequent quota of large negative anomalies. Our quota it seems is never satisfied. North America stinks in winter if you are a fan of moderate temp fluctuations. Eastern Asia is far more stable.
Eastern asia is far more colder than Eastern North America,because this they dont need anomalies haha
There is one thing about this setup that is disconcerting to someone like me that does not like extremes of temperature. And that is, at what point does the Arctic unleash this very cold air on us?
It is just building and building up there with no release. By January that will be brutally cold. This is exactly what happened in Jan 1985. December was very warm, and then when it came down in Jan of 85 Charleston SC went into the single digits, and citrus farms were wiped out in Florida. It is a very dangerous and ominous set up.
And we all know that when the Arctic unleashes, it is almost always eastern North America that gets it due to all the teleconnections.
anything but 1985. 1985 featured our record coldest temperature ever. -9 . good lord please not 1985 no 1985 . 1985 would spell disaster for us all. 1985s record low would make 2014 and 2015s winters look like mid summer. im praying hard it wont be a repeat of 1985. December 1984 was 7 degrees above average with an average high of 60.5 and low of 38. pretty warm I highly doubt it will be December 1984 though. but If so.... god be with us. but then again 1985 is such an outlier. if you look at record lows for each January of each year you see a nice variety of temps with most of the temps in the teens a few in the 20s and some in the single digits then you see that horrible outlier of -9 in 1985.
I think 1985 is a long shot, I haven't even seen it mentioned in any of the discussions and long range forecasts I've read.
I agree. If we see another polar vortex this coming winter, I expect it to be similar to January 7, 2014 or February 19, 2015, not 1985.
January 1985 was about as intense as it ever got and I'm doubtful we'll see such temps again in the 21st century with the warming of the atmosphere and all.
2015 was far colder overall up here; though its coldest extremes were probably about the same or a little milder than 1985. Seems weird to read 1985 made 2015 look mild. For us, it wasn't any single cold shot it was just one after another- the polar vortex parked itself
2015 was far colder overall up here; though its coldest extremes were probably about the same or a little milder than 1985. Seems weird to read 1985 made 2015 look mild. For us, it wasn't any single cold shot it was just one after another- the polar vortex parked itself
not here in NC at least. the weather station near my house recorded 9 degrees as its coldest for the whole winter and Raleigh's airport recorded 7 at its coldest.
2015 was far colder overall up here; though its coldest extremes were probably about the same or a little milder than 1985. Seems weird to read 1985 made 2015 look mild. For us, it wasn't any single cold shot it was just one after another- the polar vortex parked itself
If you scroll down to p.317 on this link, you will see that the 1985 cold mostly missed New England. The biggest cold anomalies were in the South and Midwest.
If you scroll down to p.317 on this link, you will see that the 1985 cold mostly missed New England. The biggest cold anomalies were in the South and Midwest.
Yes, the cold slammed the interior Southeast especially. Crossville, TN recorded a low temperature of -23F in January 1985 at 1800ft elevation.
Here's a list of Novembers in moderate-strong El Nino years by average temperature and the by following winter's snowfall. The 1950-2014 November average temperature is 50.7 F, and the average snowfall is 6.7". All data for RDU.
Year / November temperature in given year / Next winter's snowfall
2009 / 53.2 / 8.0
2002 / 49.1 / 7.4
1997 / 47.3 / 2.4
1991 / 50.0 / T
1987 / 52.8 / 7.9
1986 / 52.9 / 10.8
1982 / 51.9 / 11.8
1972 / 48.1 / 11.3
1965 / 50.9 / 11.8
1963 / 51.0 / 3.5
1957 / 51.7 / 7.9
As you can see, 6/7 warmer than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters, but only 2/4 colder than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters.
Our average temperature for the first 15 days of November was 58.9. So, as long as the rest of the month averages above 42.5 F (probable but not certain), we will be warmer than the average 50.7 F. If we raise the entire November temperature threshold to 51.5 degrees, 5/5 winters are snowier than average, but that is less likely. The intensity of the upcoming cold period is giving me doubts about this November's warmth.
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anything but 1985. 1985 featured our record coldest temperature ever. -9 
. 1985 would spell disaster for us all. 1985s record low would make 2014 and 2015s winters look like mid summer. im praying hard it wont be a repeat of 1985. December 1984 was 7 degrees above average with an average high of 60.5 and low of 38. pretty warm I highly doubt it will be December 1984 though. but If so.... god be with us. but then again 1985 is such an outlier. if you look at record lows for each January of each year you see a nice variety of temps with most of the temps in the teens a few in the 20s and some in the single digits then you see that horrible outlier of -9 in 1985.
