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Aren't 2007, 2011, and 2012 the 3 record lowest sea ice years? Weren't those followed by mild winters?
Yep, this year has secured 3rd place and possibly broken 2nd. Did you know we had the coldest polar vortex since 1996 but because of a warm June winter and spring managed to get low. Imagine if we had a brutal summer pattern instead. We would have shattered 2012s record ages ago.
Aren't 2007, 2011, and 2012 the 3 record lowest sea ice years? Weren't those followed by mild winters?
A lot of factors at play. 1977, 1978, 1979 had highest Arctic sea ice and we had brutal winters. Low Arctic sea ice can raise the odds of a weaker Polar Vortex, which means better chance of the Vortex being displaced.
A lot of factors at play. 1977, 1978, 1979 had highest Arctic sea ice and we had brutal winters. Low Arctic sea ice can raise the odds of a weaker Polar Vortex, which means better chance of the Vortex being displaced.
While we need the Arctic Air to have those Bone chilling winters, The Vortex doesn't need the Arctic to strengthen or get colder. It's colder than -30C way up above and just imagine the Vortex spinning and spinning building that cold air within itself compressing down to surface.
I think there's a misconception going on with sea ice levels and the cold air...but I cant put my finger on it yet...
At 5146 meters (16,700 feet) temperature is -30C (-22°F)
At 1212 meters (4,000 feet) temperature is -11.7C (11°F)
Brrrrr! Only Early September. I'd rather be more focused on the 4000' level, not the sea ice but I agree the surface matters too and that's near/below freezing right now.
Wow, Paulie P. Didn't expect that from him. lol (Not usually like this)
Starting at 5:00 talks about upcoming winter. Says Ben Knoll mentioned the Huug Van den dool model but its mostly Based on sea surface temps but does do good with trends.
Showing +PDO phase coming back up as warm ring in Pacific comes back. Factor in Low sea ice, solar Minimum, & an EPO that could take over to produce a ridge around Alaska that would force cold air down to middle of Nation.
Oct-Nov-Dec showing mild solution but showing signs of colder air coming down for Dec-Jan-Feb
Exact quote...
"I'm telling you folks, it is looking Ugly, Ugly, & Ugly for the Spring next year. A lot of models showing this. The winter can just hang on longer into the Spring based on what we're seeing right now. It Doesn't look good. Doesn't look good at all. We may have 2 parts to winter here, maybe an early burst and then January sets the table, goes crazy then it just stays on for a long time. Maybe February backs off a little bit but still, it looks like its a prolonged winter right now into the spring...based on what I'm seeing, not just from this model but other models"
Wow, Paulie P. Didn't expect that from him. lol (Not usually like this)
Starting at 5:00 talks about upcoming winter. Says Ben Knoll mentioned the Huug Van den dool model but its mostly Based on sea surface temps but does do good with trends.
Showing +PDO phase coming back up as warm ring in Pacific comes back. Factor in Low sea ice, solar Minimum, & an EPO that could take over to produce a ridge around Alaska that would force cold air down to middle of Nation.
Oct-Nov-Dec showing mild solution but showing signs of colder air coming down for Dec-Jan-Feb
Exact quote...
"I'm telling you folks, it is looking Ugly, Ugly, & Ugly for the Spring next year. A lot of models showing this. The winter can just hang on longer into the Spring based on what we're seeing right now. It Doesn't look good. Doesn't look good at all. We may have 2 parts to winter here, maybe an early burst and then January sets the table, goes crazy then it just stays on for a long time. Maybe February backs off a little bit but still, it looks like its a prolonged winter right now into the spring...based on what I'm seeing, not just from this model but other models"
The DJF temp anom doesn't look bad to me, mostly just neutral temps or normal winter. The March, April, May looks like winter type temps hang on. It doesn't show huge negative departures for me in D, J, and Feb. If as you say Jan was going to be crazy, then I think there should be deep blue all over that D, J, and Feb map that Paulie shows.
March and April in the Northeast US are essentially winter months so we should be looking at them too. A cold March+April is a deadly combination that could really prolong a winter, as we saw already in 2014 and 2015
The DJF temp anom doesn't look bad to me, mostly just neutral temps or normal winter. The March, April, May looks like winter type temps hang on. It doesn't show huge negative departures for me in D, J, and Feb. If as you say Jan was going to be crazy, then I think there should be deep blue all over that D, J, and Feb map that Paulie shows.
Not sure which maps you were looking at but here's a close up..It might of been the Upper heights you were seeing..
Dec-Jan-Feb Upper Heights. Pretty normal for us (obviously normal in winter means cold and snow)
Then Jan-Feb-Mar what we should focus on is the pattern.. SW Ridge and a Northwest flow with normal-below normal heights in Canada and below normal heights into Eastern U.S
This is heights.. not temps..
As far as temps......
Source for images in next post
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