Winter Thread 2016-17 (Northern Hemisphere) (temperature, city, season, world)

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by muslim12

Addmitedly thats very true, the broadcast meteorologists try not to show bias but it's clear who likes cold and who acts like they dont. The guy on wral Is Greg fishel, very good meteorologist, went to Penn state and very good friends with wait for it..... Joe bastardi. The guy on abc11 doesn't seem to show bias at all. All in all its because weather is what they are passionate about, look at cambium, he becomes very excited about snow, that excitement led him to weather, trying to learn what causes what and seeing when it will snow.

I was drawn to weather for the same reasons, passionate about storms of all kinds, and started out loving snow as a kid too. What brought me to this forum actually was my interest in finding out what winter would bring us, cold or warmth after the cold winter of 2014.

I think what really go me into weather was actually the 2005 Hurricane season. I was young and I remember pictures of the MS gulf Coast flattened, and New Orleans Flooding, 60 miles Backups on the road to Dallas, and the 8th Largest City in the US empty, etc. and I started to ask why, and how.
and being from New England there was also Nor'easters and praying for snow days.
I think that is why people like Winter Storms, they are just good fun. Hurricanes and Tornadoes during the warms months destroy towns and cities, even at their worst Blizzards generally give you a day off or two, they are rarely deadly in the modern era.

[Warszawa]

I followed weather a bit as a little kid in Moscow, I was fascinated by all the cool graphics they had on TV (it was late 90s already so the graphics were pretty cool and advanced by that point. I would constantly root for warmth, I remember we had a warm streak in February (by warm I mean above freezing) and I was super excited all the melting snow! I stopped following weather in the US because NYC has decent weather for most of the year. Then I really got into it again when I went to college in Upstate NY. I started checking it in February 2014 because it was an unusually cold month and I got really annoyed by it, and then March 2014 I started checking daily forecasts because that was an even colder month and by that point I just wanted winter to be over lol, that's how I started learning about weather

[ghost-likin]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Awesome... you got a crystal ball too? Hey, do I fall off a ladder in year 2021? How about predicting weather better 4 weeks from now before you try to predict climate 4 or 14 years from now?

Let me guess, round and round we go.

I dont need a crystal ball,Anyone who use the brain to think know that,it dont will happen in few years,but in 100-200 if Global temperature keep increasing like now.

My Father have an Beach House on a nearby city,I remember when i was kid the water doesnt reaching so far how it are today,him had to build some blocks to the water dont reach into the House.. its is happening,you beliave or not.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by ghost-likin

I dont need a crystal ball,Anyone who use the brain to think know that,it dont will happen in few years,but in 100-200 if Global temperature keep increasing like now.

My Father have an Beach House on a nearby city,I remember when i was kid the water doesnt reaching so far how it are today,him had to build some blocks to the water dont reach into the House.. its is happening,you beliave or not.

It is easy for you to say cause let's face it, Europe has gotten off very easy in the cold winter department. Did anywhere in Western Europe have the coldest February EVER in the last few years?


Just look at Zagreb and how much their averages have gone up. Your winters have gotten far warmer than our winters over here. I keep rooting for a very cold winter in Western Europe, and every year it is the same ol mild winter while we get hammered. I remember reading an article about how Americans were much more skeptical of climate change than Western Europeans, and they explained it quite easily showing just how much Europe has warmed vs here in the Eastern US.

[B87]

Not February, but we've had the coldest December and March ever in recent years.

[ghost-likin]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

It is easy for you to say cause let's face it, Europe has gotten off very easy in the cold winter department. Did anywhere in Western Europe have the coldest February EVER in the last few years?


Just look at Zagreb and how much their averages have gone up. Your winters have gotten far warmer than our winters over here. I keep rooting for a very cold winter in Western Europe, and every year it is the same ol mild winter while we get hammered. I remember reading an article about how Americans were much more skeptical of climate change than Western Europeans, and they explained it quite easily showing just how much Europe has warmed vs here in the Eastern US.

But why you are comparing East US with Western Europe? as I remember,Western US are having above normal winters too..

[Cambium]

Paul Pastelok Blog today.. QBO going to screw us?

The QBO is trying to peak on the negative side early this year. It looks like over the next month or two the QBO will peak at 50 MB. Why is this important? There has been some correlation that a negative QBO in a minimum solar cycle can help contribute to northern Atlantic blocking and possible big storms. However, the QBO trend in the fall may be toward neutral now and for the winter possibly positive. That puts my above-normal area for snowfall that I had on the map the other day slightly at risk, but this is just one index.


Some years that I have looked at over the year that show similar trends are 1987, 1992 and 2007, but these years seem to fall off my analog scale heading toward late fall and winter. Now, I may have to take a better look.


Just to let you know, we expect a weak La Nina, positive PDO and then a trend negative to neutral, possibly positive PDO during the winter.


1987/88 precipitation anomalies November through February (El Nino winter, moderate positive PDO)


So looking at all these maps, I tend to favor a combination of 1992/93 and 2007/08 but more toward 2007/08 with La Nina, PDO and solar cycle considered.


Now let's take the two top seasons, 1992/93 and 2007/08, and look at the temperatures. By the way, 1992/93 was a max solar cycle and 2007/08 was a min. We are expecting a min. cycle.


1992/93





2007/08







Also brought to my attention by a friend, the Brazilian model, which has been a while since I have posted, shows little to no snow in New York City before the end of the year. I guess that is not that surprising, but I thought we could see a little bit of snow in the big cities in December. I wonder if the water temperatures will remain above normal through the rest of the year which can contribute to less snow events near the coast early, but Chicago shows three snow events. Below are the graphs for New York and Chicago. If you see green on the precipitation graph, that is snow.


New York City



Chicago

[Lacerta]

Yeah, Boise used to actually get snow in the winters. When I was a kid, I played outside in at least several inches of snow lots of times in the winter. We'd build snowmen at the school playground on recess, and have snowball fights, etc. Lately, not so much. We get a few snowfalls each winter, but they almost always melt off right away. (And by lately, I mean for the last 15 years or so). I miss snow.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Paul Pastelok Blog today.. QBO going to screw us?

I think he meant to say "possibly negative" PDO this winter the way that sentence is structured.

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...35140495196160