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We'll see if it's an actual NorEaster in time but ........... here...we...go...again.. All models continue to have this storm. I will update this thread..
As far as the poll... little different this time. Instead of listing all stations choose which area. But to be fair because there are mountains and local areas which usually receive more than others we will only use the NWS Climo Sites within the choices.
IE: For Pennsylvania there, Pittsburgh, Philly, Scranton, ect.
New Jersey there's Newark, Atlantic City, ect.
I voted Connecticut Massachusetts and Rhode Island, but I strongly suspect that New Jersey and Long Island could also potentially be hit hard with heavy snow or a major icing event.
I voted Connecticut Massachusetts and Rhode Island, but I strongly suspect that New Jersey and Long Island could also potentially be hit hard with heavy snow or a major icing event.
Sleet and Ice are a possibility too. Something I don't want to see.
Here is the projected track from WPC. Will change over time but this is latest thinking..
(For those not sure, snow will stay north of the track of course. Too far north will get much less)
And the NAO is still negative. That means there is blocking in the North Atlantic. Which slows the pattern down and gets these coastals to strengthen and happen. (Its not a fast flow west east)
So I looked at the latest GFS12z and it does what I hope this storm does. I do not want that storm to hit Indiana or Ohio. That would send more warm air into the Northeast and be bad for coast.
Instead, it starts making the East move from Northern Kentucky, question is... WHERE DOES THAT NEW COASTAL STORM FORM???
NWS Philly says it good. All we know is there is a storm at hand...the details are yet to be solved. They also mention that the Atlantic blocking will determine how close to coast it tracks
Quote:
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018
It does appear that the primary low
eventually gives way to redevelopment somewhere off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, however this placement will depend on the track of the short
waves and their amplification of the trough aloft. A turn closer to
the coast with the surface low or farther offshore will also depend
on the extent of upstream blocking. The evolution aloft and the
surface low track will be crucial in determining precipitation
types/amounts and therefore any impacts. This is several days out,
therefore lots of opportunity for the guidance to change however the
signal continues to point to a storm
Bernie not impressed at all. He says theres too many pieces of vorticity inside the trough and that indicates only weak storms coming across. We need the trough to consolidate and energy round the base to get a coastal storm to form and come up.
He said its end of week we have to watch for, not Tues-Wed. Really?
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