small cell near me; just missing me. I can feel a cool breeze. Need steeper lapse rates
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/statu...34169071865857
more discussions
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatc...d=0394&yr=2018
IN WHAT MAY BE A PREVIEW OF THINGS TO COME THIS
AFTERNOON...KOKX RADAR SHOWED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATING
OVER NEWARK NJ AROUND 1630Z...AND THEN PROPAGATING ONLY AROUND 5
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. DUAL POL RAIN
RATES WERE ESTIMATED TO BE APPROACHING 2 IN/HR. THIS ISOLATED
STORM WAS NOW SITUATED IN AN ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD PER GOES-16
VISIBLE SATELLITE...STRETCHING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO
NYC METRO AREA...AND THEN EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THIS SAME CORRIDOR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ROUGHLY IN THE BEST
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW VALUES. CIRA BLENDED TPW VALUES
WERE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE PER CSFR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWATS OF THIS MAGNITUDE...IN
COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF 2 IN/HR RAIN RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.