Winter Storm January 18-20, 2019 (tornado, normal, cold, live)
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SREF mean just got slashed to exactly 1.00" for CT.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
I just looked at the soundings from Euro for this area and I about fell over. Surface and up to 6000' above freezing. Rain. Sad... sad....get the flag ready again. Lol
OK guys, for those of us who are not, um, weather nerds in the same way you are (meant affectionately! ): what exactly do those things MEAN?
Cambium, I rep'd you asking about ratios -- so HIGHER ratios (like 15/1 or 20/1) mean the light, fluffy snow, while lower rations mean the heavier, wet stuff? (My area had high ratios, which of course I loved to see!! I hope they are correct!!)
I actually really enjoy these threads ... I just don't always UNDERSTAND them fully!
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ETA: just re-checked my forecast (SW NH): a foot of snow (or more) Saturday night, followed by a "wintry mix" of snow AND ICE on Sunday (5-8"). Ugh. I would take 2 feet of snow over an inch of ice!! I HATE that term "wintry mix"!!
OK guys, for those of us who are not, um, weather nerds in the same way you are (meant affectionately! ): what exactly do those things MEAN?
Cambium, I rep'd you asking about ratios -- so HIGHER ratios (like 15/1 or 20/1) mean the light, fluffy snow, while lower rations mean the heavier, wet stuff? (My area had high ratios, which of course I loved to see!! I hope they are correct!!)
I actually really enjoy these threads ... I just don't always UNDERSTAND them fully!
======
ETA: just re-checked my forecast (SW NH): a foot of snow (or more) Saturday night, followed by a "wintry mix" of snow AND ICE on Sunday (5-8"). Ugh. I would take 2 feet of snow over an inch of ice!! I HATE that term "wintry mix"!!
SREF = Short Range Ensemble Forecast, the ensemble of the NAM (North American Model, the biggest mesoscale (small system) model). The SREF consists of 26 different members, all running out 87 hours. You can view SREF data here, just select your location on the map below the "graph."
As for Cambium's post on the surface and temps to 6000', I guess the best way to explain this is to take you through some soundings. Think of soundings as cross-sections of the atmosphere.
Here is a sounding for sleet. Yes, probably looks confusing, I'll walk you through. For now, only pay attention to the big graph in the middle. At the bottom scale you see the 0°C line, it extends diagonally to the right (should be the bolded dashed line on the right). That's your freezing line. As you can see, the actual temperature (red line) gets above freezing for a little bit, and then goes back below freezing down towards the surface (on the left y-axis, think of pressure as altitude, the lower the pressure, the higher the altitude). Now think of a single snowflake high up in the clouds floating down. It will melt in the section that is above freezing, but then refreezes into sleet as it goes below freezing again.
If you are wondering what makes freezing rain different, a freezing rain sounding has a shorter "distance" below freezing close to the surface so it doesn't refreeze midair into sleet.
If you have any Qs about this, feel free to ask more
Look at northern New Brunswick on your map...gonna get a ton of snow there.
On the National News last night mentioned a state of emergency declared for northern New Brunswick
for sunday, that area gets a lot of snow but this one could be really big.
Hey! No fair! You started early! I thought the game can't start until the storm starts in your location. (Says geocentric New Englander, not realizing that it could already be going on where you're located.)
The snow part of the storm pretty much went "poof" in the southern half of the Kansas City area. I measured perhaps .25" in Johnson County, Kansas, but the wind is whipping it all over the place. The temperature is 13 (F), about 20 degrees colder than it was 12 hours ago.
The snow part of the storm pretty much went "poof" in the southern half of the Kansas City area. I measured perhaps .25" in Johnson County, Kansas, but the wind is whipping it all over the place. The temperature is 13 (F), about 20 degrees colder than it was 12 hours ago.
More up here where it started earlier, maybe 1.5" in the deepest spots (grass). Disappointing. Apparently Atchison, KS got over 4". Just barely missed!
Our forecast (southwestern New Hampshire) has gone from "a foot or more of snow" both Saturday night AND Sunday to this, as of now: 8-12" of snow overnight, 1-3" of "wintry mix" (ugh) on Sunday.
WAY down, which is OK with me, except I'd vastly prefer snow over a "wintry mix." Hope we don't get much ice ...
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): what exactly do those things MEAN?
