Winter Storm January 18-20, 2019 (temp, map, North, hours)

[Nov3]

On a side note: if the power is out at your house...chances are the generators used at hotels will also be out after 12 hrs of peak use. I work in hotel and folks just assume we have unlimited power ...we use the same electric/gas providers as residentails.
I've yet to see the lake effect not pull off a whopper of snow fall... Erie pa often gets buried....

Storms like this often leave medical challenged homebound person's. ..with no one to check on em. Be a good neighbor....

[Warszawa]

Originally Posted by speagles84

After looking at the latest euro and NAM, the entire state outside of a sliver of extreme southwest PA and most of southeast PA are getting a foot. You heard it here first

My backyard... 13-15"

No bueno, I'm supposed to be going to Philly this weekend

[Northern Maine Land Man]

My son is in Merrimack, NH where they are in the 3 foot plus zone as is my other son in Portland. I'm only in the 2-3 foot zone here on the Trans-Maine trail. This was predicted in the European model last Friday. I really like the European model. I am a certified weather spotter. Caribou sometimes calls me for observations.

MILK, BREAD AND EGGS! The very best French toast is made with cinnamon raisin bread.

[Jnvlv247]

GOOD!! We always need a reminder as to why we left NE

[sedimenjerry]

I don't envy the forecasters on this one. Large area of mix/ice. The lines between snow and mix/ice and rain are all right along the major cities which means just a small shift in precip types and amounts will be magnified by the high population claiming a terrible forecast.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by sedimenjerry

I don't envy the forecasters on this one. Large area of mix/ice. The lines between snow and mix/ice and rain are all right along the major cities which means just a small shift in precip types and amounts will be magnified by the high population claiming a terrible forecast.

Yeah, we are pretty near that line right now here in Western Maryland. Last 24 hours changed our forecast from mostly mix and a 1/2 inch+ of rain to 8-12 inches of snow, then some ice, then some rain.

Really hoping for nearly all snow. I would rather deal with a foot of snow, then 5 inches of snow that gets saturated by rain, then freezes solid on MLK Jr. Day.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

And it begins.


NWS Snowfall total forecast maps being updated. (subject to changes).

and it got changed upward. NWS Boston maps posted a forecast map for 2 feet for northern Massachusetts

[lommaren]

Originally Posted by nei

and it got changed upward. NWS Boston maps posted a forecast map for 2 feet for northern Massachusetts

Did you see at Ventusky how far the -4°C offshore temps go east of Massachusetts this morning? I posted it in the winter thread.

[nei]

Originally Posted by sedimenjerry

I don't envy the forecasters on this one. Large area of mix/ice. The lines between snow and mix/ice and rain are all right along the major cities which means just a small shift in precip types and amounts will be magnified by the high population claiming a terrible forecast.

there's going to be a ton of ignorant people whining "why are forecasters so terrible? Weatherman doesn't know anything"

=====================

here's what the NWS New York says, which is in the uncertain zone more than further north. "Interior" here means north of NYC not deep further north. bolding the uncertainty and a few main points.


Saturday will be dry through the afternoon then warm advection
quickly takes shape with snow overspreading the region in the
evening. The air mass in place at the onset will be supportive of
all snow. Strong warm advection and an increasing southeasterly low
level jet should bring in warmer air aloft to bring a transition
zone. How quickly this occurs will be important along the coast for
the amount of snow accumulation.

This warm nose aloft will gradually spread inland to encompass the
entire area Sunday morning. Even the colder model solutions still
show this warming aloft due to the broad middle level low center
tracking initially to our west Saturday night and then over the
region Sunday morning. Precipitation should transition to plain rain
for much of NYC, Long Island, and southeast Connecticut late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. PTYPE for the rest of the area
may transition to sleet and/or freezing rain depending on the depth
of the low level cold below the warm nose. The colder solutions of
the ECMWF and NAM out through 12z Sunday show potential for a
quite deep cold layer below the warm nose, which would mean more
sleet rather than freezing rain. It is too early to say for
sure how this aspect will evolve, so for now will show a mixture
of sleet and freezing rain for the interior Sunday morning.
Once the low tracks east of the area, colder air rapidly rushes
back in from the north and west and will bring a gradual
transition back to snow as the precip ends.

A significant snow and sleet accumulation of 6 plus inches appears
likely across portions of the NW interior. The 00z ECMWF EPS
probability of 6 inches or more is around 80 percent across this
region. Amounts will decrease as one nears the coast with a few
inches possible, but this will ultimately be dependent on how
quickly the precipitation changes to a mix or rain. Significant
freezing rain accretion is also possible Sunday morning, especially
north and west of NYC. Please note that small changes in track will
have significant implications for the type of precipitation and
amounts.

While forecast amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain are of
lower confidence, there is higher confidence in a liquid equivalent
of 2 to 3 inches.

Temperatures rise into the upper 30s and low 40s along Long Island
and southeast Connecticut Sunday morning, but will rapidly drop back
below freezing in the afternoon and evening, any standing water
could quickly freeze, creating hazardous travel conditions even
where little wintry precipitation occurs.

Temperatures will continue to plummet through the overnight hours,
with lows Monday morning ranging from the single digits to near 10
degrees. Gusty northwest winds will result in wind chills around 5
to 15 degrees below zero. The lowest wind chills are most likely to
occur across the interior.

The arctic air remains in place on Monday as high pressure builds
into the region. Highs will only be in the teens with wind chills
staying 0 to 10 below. Temperatures should warm into to the 20s and
low 30s on Tuesday and then potentially above normal on Wednesday
ahead of the next system approaching the area.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by sedimenjerry

I don't envy the forecasters on this one. Large area of mix/ice. The lines between snow and mix/ice and rain are all right along the major cities which means just a small shift in precip types and amounts will be magnified by the high population claiming a terrible forecast.

Yup. High "Bust" talk potential. Little shift in storm track or front speed will make or break the forecast. An area that is forecasted to get 6" of snow with ice and rain could easily be 12" of snow and sleet or 2" of snow and rain.


Now you know why I feel bad and give credit to forecasters. Lord bless them for what they do.

Originally Posted by westsideboy

Yeah, we are pretty near that line right now here in Western Maryland. Last 24 hours changed our forecast from mostly mix and a 1/2 inch+ of rain to 8-12 inches of snow, then some ice, then some rain. .

Latest GFS has just little snow to a lot of rain for CBE Cumberland, Maryland.

Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man

My son is in Merrimack, NH where they are in the 3 foot plus zone as is my other son in Portland. .

Latest GFS for Nashua (ASH) in Southern New Hampshire shows this...


1.76" qpf! That's a lot for a storm but this has a front associated with it so it has extra juice.


Look at that small window where temps at 5000' go above freezing. So between 1-7am Sunday is when your son will start hearing the changeover but byt that time there should be 8-12" snow on the ground. Changes back to snow after 7am so another 1/2" of liquid falls as snow. It may just stay all snow and I can see getting 18"+ there.