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Old 07-25-2021, 09:59 PM
 
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Another big Southern Indian Ocean frontal system is about to smash into the south west of western australia later today.

EWN Alerts - Western Australia
·
Significant Weather Threat Map
Monday, 26 July 2021
WA: "A vigorous cold front will approach southwestern WA this afternoon, with heavy showers, rain periods, and isolated storms likely. A SEVERE weather warning has been issued for damaging wind gusts of up to 120km/h, with the potential for locally destructive winds gusts exceeding 125km/h, particularly with any thunderstorm activity. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding may develop, with 25-50mm possible for some locations, with abnormally high tides, and damaging surf also expected over the next 24 hours."

And from this fellow
Anthony Cornelius Meteorologist
"Antarctic Low to Bring Damaging Winds, Dust Storms & Possible Tornadoes Across Parts of Western Australia, South Australia & Victoria!
The Southern Ocean has been VERY active the last 10 days, and it's certainly not quietening down! A very large and deep surface low is likely to be located well south of the country, but that's not removing much of its potency. And with pressures possibly dropping as low as 930mb this evening, that puts this system in the same realm of pressures achieved by category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasi!
However winds operate differently in Antarctic/polar lows compared to tropical cyclones - and we tend to see a very broad region of strong winds (as opposed to tropical cyclones where this is far more localised and intense). Nonetheless, such a system is pushing a cold front through the southern areas of Australia during the next few days and it will have some nasty consequences.
Later today and overnight, southwestern Western Australia will bear the force of this cold front and we're expecting widespread damaging wind gusts to occur over these areas (but it will favour coastal areas and exposed locations). However there is some concern about the potential for some isolated storms (and even deep showers) to occur in this environment. As instability is a little stronger than usual for this system, when combined with the incredibly strong shear and high SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) values, you'd be thinking that some cold-season tornadoes are a likely prospect (but this should favour areas within a few kilometres of the coastline). Thankully, these are very brief and localised - but they can produce significant damage in local pockets. The region is no stranger to cold season tornadoes, but I do think the chance of them occurring is much higher than normal in this system given the setup.
Tomorrow the main cold front will push into South Australia. Strong northwest winds will see temperatures approach close to 30C in some areas causing lower 3km of the atmosphere to become super adiabatic. As such we can expect a lot of mixing to occur and the strong 50-60 knot winds above the surface will mix down creating gale force and damaging wind gusts across a broad region (mostly the southern and southwestern areas - less likely in the north and southeast). The other by-product of this will be raised dust and possible dust storms.
By Wednesday this front will push into southeastern South Australia and southwestern and central Victoria. We're expecting this to bring damaging winds over both regions once again as these winds mix down in the unusually unstable winter atmosphere. However parts of southeastern South Australia have caught my eye for some deeper convection which given the shear could well see a couple of cold-season supercells develop with small hail and damaging winds. You couldn't rule out the potential for a cold season tornado or two either (but the SW WA region is probably the most likely).
Should be an interesting few days - especially after wild weather already impacting many of these areas in recent days (most notably, southeastern South Australia)."
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Old 07-25-2021, 10:12 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greysrigging View Post
Another big Southern Indian Ocean frontal system is about to smash into the south west of western australia later today.

...
It's been a good month for rain in Perth: already more than 200 mm even before this system.
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Old 07-26-2021, 03:31 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
It's been a good month for rain in Perth: already more than 200 mm even before this system.
I've flown in and out of Perth dozens of times in the last 2 decades....the winter months always raining, summer months always dry.
As you would expect I suppose, for a classic Southern Hemisphere Med climate.
I have a mate near Albany on the south coast, he's had nearly 1000mm for the YTD.
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Old 07-27-2021, 02:34 AM
 
Location: Sydney, Australia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greysrigging View Post
I've flown in and out of Perth dozens of times in the last 2 decades....the winter months always raining, summer months always dry.
As you would expect I suppose, for a classic Southern Hemisphere Med climate.
I have a mate near Albany on the south coast, he's had nearly 1000mm for the YTD.
And all that moisture and rain from those westerly cold fronts up dries up (Foehn effect) as they cross the Great Dividing Range and onto the coastal plains. No wonder Sydney is quite dry between July and September, especially August.

This week is all dry and sunny here.
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Old 07-27-2021, 05:16 PM
 
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BOM NT predicts early onset of wet season build-up as July temperature records fall
( source: Weatherzone )
People in the Top End are being warned to brace for an early return to sweatbox conditions, with predictions an early onset of the wet season will bring the cooler dry season temperatures to a premature end.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) modelling shows rain and high humidity levels are expected to envelop some parts of Northern Australia earlier than usual.

Forecasters say the pre-wet season conditions known locally as the build-up where soaring humidity propels many areas into sauna-like conditions ? could begin as early as September.
The driver behind the conditions is a phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which was recently declared negative for the first time in five years.

That means central and southern parts of the country will become wetter throughout the colder months of the year.

BOM senior forecaster Billy Lynch said it could also lead to early wet season downpours in the Top End.

"The rain that we would normally expect to experience during that September, October, November period could come earlier this season," he said.

"The prospects of seeing some rain in the Top End from September onwards is more likely."
Temperature records tumble

Some parts of the Northern Territory have also sweltered through a scorching July, with record-breaking temperatures.
On July 25, the remote community of Wadeye reached 35.6 degrees Celsius its hottest July day in more than 20 years.
In Victoria River Downs, a cattle station about 700 kilometres south of Darwin, a 37.7C day became the hottest maximum July temperature in 56 years.

Mr Lynch said July temperature records in Central Australia could also tumble in the coming days.
"We're expecting to see that heat move southwards into central and southern NT, so we could even see some records across the south."
Alice Springs is forecast to have its hottest July day, at 32C, on Friday.

Cooler temperatures will bring relief to southern and central parts of the NT from Sunday.
The Top End will have to wait a bit longer, with a cool change not expected until the middle of next week.


The record breaking July heatwave continues across the Top End of the Northern Territory. Jabiru, the former service town for Ranger Uranium Mine ( within Kakadu National Park ) has a series of 37c max temps forecast to end the month. The site is running at 2.1c and 1.7c above the July mean max and min temps. Also running 0.4c above the previous July monthly record of 33.8c set in 2017. Site has data back to 1971.

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Old 07-27-2021, 06:38 PM
 
Location: Sydney, Australia
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It will be a warm winter day today, with a forecast high of 25C in Sydney.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/...e-today/534675
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Old 07-27-2021, 07:03 PM
 
Location: Buenos Aires and La Plata, ARG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
It will be a warm winter day today, with a forecast high of 25C in Sydney.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/...e-today/534675
While the opposite here, cold blast, and a max of 11C. Tomorrow could be even lower (it will be cloudy, whilst it was mostly sunny today).
It seems like is rare to see both areas to be under a polar mass at the same time, when one is cold the other is warm.
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Old 07-28-2021, 08:49 PM
 
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What happened to my post???
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Old 07-28-2021, 08:54 PM
 
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Let me try again.

Nightmarish week coming up with terrible icy westerlies blowing :-http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml - yucky weather indeed!!!
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Old 07-28-2021, 10:17 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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In the meantime, news from the South Pole:


https://twitter.com/pinturicchio_60/...542809604?s=19
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