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I cannot believe that CNBC actually thinks we will fall for for this.
Kramer is saying car sales are up, home sales are up and people are finding jobs. Are we honestly supposed to swallow that? http://www.cnbc.com/id/45960264
But here they say the opposite
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45972629 (broken link)
and Google this "home sale numbers always revised lower"
Home sales are up in my neighborhood. I was just comparing notes with a friend in a different industry, we both got large orders today. I plan on hiring 10 positions in the next two months, pay ranges will be $10/hr to $65K/year.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Same here, seeing a lot of new cars with the paper plates around, and we only have 5 openings at work but we just filled over 50. New home developments are starting up again and people are actually buying them.
You really can't evaluate the economy on a local basis. Although the official numbers are "questionable" due to the seasonal adjustments made and later revisions they are about the only way to really judge economic activity.
An example of "seasonal adjustment" is the latest initial claim numbers. The reported number is 399,000 new claims. The actual raw data is 642,481 initial claims.
Retail sales is another indicator and despite the hype they weren't all that great. A 7% increase over 2010 isn't saying much but it is an improvement. How much of that increase is due to inflation is another matter.
Home sales are reported on regularly however the recent admission by the NAR that they greatly overstated the numbers for a couple of years makes that data questionable.
Do you really think we will see the economy improve? Seriously?
Look at the growth of debt from 1980 in relation to the growth in GDP. It took a 7% annual growth in debt to result in an annual GDP growth of 4%. People do not have the capability to continue adding debt which will result in contraction in GDP. Our politicians have replaced private demand with deficit spending. They are currently borrowing close to 12% of GDP. This can not continue indefinitely. As soon as the rug is pulled out from under them the result is going to be at least a 20 to 30% drop in GDP.
Just because some talking head on the television set tells you things are getting better doesn't make it so. Throughout this economic crisis the political powers have been engaged in "perception management" (aka propaganda) repeating the lie "it is getting better" in order to influence people.
Look at the raw data- Tell me how the economy will grow without the ability to add additional debt. Tell me how we can grow our economy from our surplus production when our traitors in Washington have pimped out manufacturing to third world cess pools.
So far our government has done everything in its power to hide and pretend they can fix this. Right now government debt is over 100% of GDP, in order to continue the "recovery" they will have to add 10% to the debt every year and we will be Greece in a year or two. Unless they can figure out how to inflate another debt bubble it is game over.
There is a percentage of the population that is doing well / ok now. If you have cash, its a good time to buy things in a down economy. On another note, I believe a lot of home inventory is being sat on - people who can are buying new homes and renting out their existing homes instead of selling. So in reality, the housing market is much worst than it appears - there is a lot of inventory out there that is not accounted for.
We went to the grocery this week and bought meat. Things are looking up!
I was talking to the Wal-mart woman as I was checking out- she noticed I had some "discounted meat". She mentioned "I got lucky"- she explained they used to discount the older meat at the same time every day but there got to be too many people "loitering" near the meat department waiting to snag it. They started staggering when they put it out.
Jim Kramer is a halfwit. Just remember that, in 2008, he said we had nothing to worry about. Days before Bear Stearns collapsed he said it was a perfectly safe investment.
Anybody with an IQ higher than a rhesus monkey should know that home prices are STILL overvalued versus inflation. Do yourself a favor and type in Case Shiller Index into Google and see the chart yourself. Home prices went through the roof in the last decade chiefly due to the oversupply of credit and the total relaxation of underwriting. And the latest home sales figures may be nothing more than a dead cat bounce.
On to new car sales. Because of the stupid Cash For Clunkers program, used cars have gotten ridiculously expensive. So, for about the first time in human history, it actually makes better financial sense to buy a new one as opposed to a used one.
What's more, the employment numbers remain very, very anemic.
To me, the Credit Crisis has yet to run its course. Right now the headline grabber is the economic fate of Europe and the Euro. But coming right on its heels is the coming crash of the Chinese real estate market. If those two happen at the same time then, well, My God. Save your money and hang on for dear life.
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