Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics
Most of the seasonal fluctuation in employment numbers can be attributed to just a small slice of the entire population. Of course, there are jobs in education, which fall sharply June to August. Barring jobs in this industry, the only age group which shows pronounced seasonal variation are people under 25.
We already saw which industries are affected in a previous post. The results are pretty predictable here. Occupations in industries like food and retail trade see the biggest increases June to August, as these are quite popular jobs for those who work on their summer break.
Speaking of which, it doesn’t look like just everyone joins the workforce in June. Want an example? Look at the following map:
Summer employment rate in 2014-2016, people aged 18-24
There's a pretty clear geographical pattern here: significantly more young people work during summer in the northern states. Notable exceptions are New York and — to some degree — Illinois. One of the lowest numbers can be observed in California, where on average only three in five people under 25 are employed during the summer months.
Since June to August employment is consistently higher for people under 25, the next logical step is to look into those extra jobs. Here's the breakdown (note that we specifically exclude education-related jobs):
Extra summer employment for people under 25, 2004-2016 (per 1,000)
As you can see, the numbers are lower for people over 21; this is mostly due to the fact that many of them have stable jobs by that age.
Another interesting fact is that women become less likely than men to work summer jobs after 21. And the difference has been slowly climbing since 2010 — the number is now 50 percent higher for men.
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About Andrey Kamenov
Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics
Andrey Kamenov is a data scientist working for Advameg Inc. His background includes teaching statistics, stochastic processes and financial mathematics in Moscow State University and working for a hedge fund. His academic interests range from statistical data analysis to optimal stopping theory. Andrey also enjoys his hobbies of photography, reading and powerlifting.
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