Is Redoubt fixin' to blow? (house, cost, groceries)

[blueflames50]

Beware Grannysroost....Guido friend or foe.....remember the Adam and Eve apple thing....not sure I'd trust Guido 100%. He might jus't bite thy arst or hand~~~dunnt kow 'bout these here penguines ya know!!

[aurorawatcher]

2009-01-30 16:56:54
Seismicity has declined greatly over the past 90 minutes, although activity is still well above normal background levels.

Clouds continue to obscure the webcam view, and the sun will be setting soon. AVO continues to observe potential activity with satellite and radar data.

An AVO observation flight this afternoon reported no sign of ash emission, but observed significant steaming from a new melt depression at the mouth of the summit crater near the vent area of the 1989-90 eruption

[Grannysroost]

Originally Posted by blueflames50

Beware Grannysroost....Guido friend or foe.....remember the Adam and Eve apple thing....not sure I'd trust Guido 100%. He might jus't bite thy arst or hand~~~dunnt kow 'bout these here penguines ya know!!

Trust me I thought about that, but don't want to be on his bad side (teeth)...

[JavaPhil]

Originally Posted by aurorawatcher

2009-01-30 16:56:54
Seismicity has declined greatly over the past 90 minutes, although activity is still well above normal background levels.

Clouds continue to obscure the webcam view, and the sun will be setting soon. AVO continues to observe potential activity with satellite and radar data.

An AVO observation flight this afternoon reported no sign of ash emission, but observed significant steaming from a new melt depression at the mouth of the summit crater near the vent area of the 1989-90 eruption

The decrease usually means that pressure is buiilding and hasn't found a way to release yet. Shifting mass (Seismic events)and plumes are good because they are a release of pressure.

[blueflames50]

me either....BIG rabid bit to the butt~~!!! ouchy ouch

[blueflames50]

Sooo Mal or anybody....with pressure building does this mean that there is apt to be a major lava blow??? or will it be like the 89-90 blow??? Have been fascinated by the pacific fire rim volcano's for years but still haven't got a clear grasp on what determines the type of blast that will occur.

[HighlandLady]

I don't think anyone can say what sort of eruption she'll bring. Volcanoes are unpredictable at best.

[blueflames50]

that's what I'm wonder'n....if there is any way there is a clue as to the type of eruption that will happen....scientifically. I have never found anything reading or on the web that leads anyone.... including volcanologist to know ahead of time.

[JavaPhil]

Originally Posted by HighlandLady

I don't think anyone can say what sort of eruption she'll bring. Volcanoes are unpredictable at best.

In other words, just like a woman! LOL

[aurorawatcher]

Interpretation and Hazards
Based on our current understanding of Redoubt's past eruptions, both historical and from the geologic record, and our analysis of the current episode of unrest, AVO considers the following future scenarios as possible:

1. Failed Eruption: No eruption occurs because magma does not reach the surface. Earthquake activity, gas output, and steaming slowly decrease over several weeks or months. Continued heat flux may cause continued, modest melting of snow and ice on the edifice and subsequent increased, but not hazardous outflow into the Drift River.
2. Eruption similar to or smaller than 1989-90: Unrest continues to escalate culminating in an eruption that is similar to or smaller than the one that occurred in 1989-90. An eruption such as this would likely spread volcanic ash throughout Cook Inlet and other parts of south-central Alaska depending upon the prevailing winds. Communities around the volcano, especially to the east, northeast, and southeast, would likely experience trace to several millimeters (less than 0.4 inches) of ash fall as a result of discrete explosive events. Such events could also generate pyroclastic flows that swiftly melt snow and ice to form mudflows, or lahars, that would likely travel east down Drift River, possibly reaching and flowing into Cook Inlet. If summit lava domes form, as they did in 1989-90, they may repeatedly collapse and generate pyroclastic flows that would likely travel north from the summit crater and form lahars. Smaller lahars could also form in other drainages if hot debris accumulated on other flanks of the volcano. An eruption consisting of multiple explosive events, episodic lava-dome growth and collapse, and lahars may last weeks to months.
3. Larger Explosive Eruption: A significantly larger eruption could occur, perhaps similar to eruptions that are thought to have taken place prehistorically. Such an eruption might involve the production of larger ash clouds, pyroclastic flows on several flanks of the volcano, and larger lahars more frequently reaching Cook Inlet down Drift River and affecting other drainages around the volcano as well.
4. Flank Collapse: The intruding magma or other processes could destabilize a portion of the Redoubt edifice that could result in a large volcanic landslide. At least twice in the last 10,000 years, debris flows generated by such landslides have reached Cook Inlet. It is also likely that a landslide of this type would be accompanied by an eruption. Because of the scarcity of these events in the geologic record, a flank collapse and eruption is considered very unlikely. A flank collapse may be accompanied by visible deformation of the edifice and AVO will be looking for such signs.

Based on all available monitoring data and AVOs knowledge of the volcano, scenario number two, an eruption similar to or smaller than that of 1989-90, appears to be the most probable outcome at this time. We consider one and three to be somewhat less likely, and scenario four to be much less likely.
Comparing the time frame of pre-eruptive activity in 1989-90 (the only other eruption for which seismic data were available) with the current unrest, we would expect such an eruption to begin within the next few days or weeks. It is likely that the onset of an explosive eruption would be preceded by a further increase in seismicity. An explosive eruption would be accompanied by a sharp increase in seismicity. Should earthquake activity or other monitoring data suggest that an eruption is expected within hours, or is underway, AVO would move Redoubt from its current Aviation Color Code ORANGE to RED, and Alert Level WATCH to WARNING.