House Prices - OFHEO Report (Phoenix, Prescott: sales, crime rates, unemployment rate)

[Gretchen B]

Originally Posted by sierraAZ

Same in Tucson, but we'll see how it goes... The inventory had started going down a bit, but the trend didn't last. The converted condos seem to have the hardest time moving. New inventory houses started showing again (cancellations) - granted, mostly in the outskirts. He-he, not even sure what to call Red Rock - the future downtown of Tucnix or Phoeson!

Prescott has even more scary 5-year appreciation than Tucson and Phoenix - over 90%!

I know, but I don't think it's necessarily a matter of what goes up must come down. When you look at places like Sedona and Carmel and San Francisco (very, very pricey), it's more about the supply/demand scenario - desirable climates/culture, scarce building sites, and building restrictions.

For those reasons I think Prescott may not suffer as much as some. The other thing Prescott has going for it is being named on all those "Best Places to Retire" lists. We've got lots of folks that want to move here, but they need to sell their homes in other parts of the country first.

My own personal opinion is that the "what goes up, must come down" theory doesn't wash. We moved here from the midwest. Even though there's been little price appreciation in most of those areas of the plains/midwest, a lot of those areas have seen just as much relative price adjustment as places with the huge appreciation. Especially looking at the 5 year column on the OFHEO report - that's really where the significant data is. Of course, it would be more helpful if we could view it according to metro areas, too, instead of just by state.

The other factors like loans and the overall national economy and even things like fires in California and hurricanes in the Southeast may really throw some interesting curves into the ballgame.

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by Gretchen B

I know, but I don't think it's necessarily a matter of what goes up must come down. When you look at places like Sedona and Carmel and San Francisco (very, very pricey), it's more about the supply/demand scenario - desirable climates/culture, scarce building sites, and building restrictions.

For those reasons I think Prescott may not suffer as much as some.

It may very well not suffer as much as others, but even though I like Prescott, I wouldn't compare it to any of the three above...

[Gretchen B]

Originally Posted by sierraAZ

It may very well not suffer as much as others, but even though I like Prescott, I wouldn't compare it to any of the three above...

Ooooh, no, I wasn't trying to compare Prescott to those others - not even close (although we can go visit Sedona easily) I was just using Sedona, Carmel and San Francisco as an example of some places where the price appreciation has been crazy, but it's not coming down quickly because of topography and other factors. So I was just saying that Prescott's topography and desirability (as far as climate and being attractive to retirees) and lack of new home subdivisions may help it not tank, despite the 90% price appreciation.

We're all hoping so anyway.

[Boatdrinks]

Interesting that Provo and Salt Lake and Utah in general continues to grow and appreciate....

I know 5 or 6 families who moved from Gilbert back to UT because of religious (LDS) reasons. Wonder if that has anything to do with the growth in UT????

Course, it could just be that Salt Lake is a beautiful city too....

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by Boatdrinks

Interesting that Provo and Salt Lake and Utah in general continues to grow and appreciate....

I know 5 or 6 families who moved from Gilbert back to UT because of religious (LDS) reasons. Wonder if that has anything to do with the growth in UT????

Course, it could just be that Salt Lake is a beautiful city too....

I personally think it's just the next cycle of the bubble... Salt Lake is not a bad city and has a decent downtown, but it's too Mormon-dominated for my taste...

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by Gretchen B

Ooooh, no, I wasn't trying to compare Prescott to those others - not even close (although we can go visit Sedona easily) I was just using Sedona, Carmel and San Francisco as an example of some places where the price appreciation has been crazy, but it's not coming down quickly because of topography and other factors. So I was just saying that Prescott's topography and desirability (as far as climate and being attractive to retirees) and lack of new home subdivisions may help it not tank, despite the 90% price appreciation.

We're all hoping so anyway.

You know, there are some places that are just nice to visit... As much as I like Sedona, I wouldn't prefer to live there...

[steve22]

Say what you will about Mormons; in general they're polite, well-educated, and they don't commit many crimes. They actually would make pretty ideal neighbors, I'd venture to guess. Compared with the alternatives you'll find in many cities (Phoenix included), based on my experiences anyway, I wouldn't mind living among them at all.

Plus, there are huge upsides to SLC, especially if you're an outdoors lover. Anyone who's spent significant time there can attest to that.

[Boatdrinks]

Originally Posted by steve22

Say what you will about Mormons; in general they're polite, well-educated, and they don't commit many crimes. They actually would make pretty ideal neighbors, I'd venture to guess. Compared with the alternatives you'll find in many cities (Phoenix included), based on my experiences anyway, I wouldn't mind living among them at all.

Plus, there are huge upsides to SLC, especially if you're an outdoors lover. Anyone who's spent significant time there can attest to that.

I didn't say anything at all - positive or negative - about Mormons. As for guessing that they'd be "ideal neighbors" my response to that is you never know until you live next door to someone what kind of neighbor they'll be....

I'm sure there are great options for outdoor recreation living in SLC. I just question what the primary employment field would be - where are all these new UT residents working? I haven't researched this, so I don't know the answer - are there any huge employers there, ie, airlines, banking, insurance, etc. headquartered there? You could certainly ask the same question about people moving to other states in large numbers too - I'm just curious about UT in this instance.

I think I read that SLC is close to 50% LDS, with Provo and other cities being mostly LDS.

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by Boatdrinks

I didn't say anything at all - positive or negative - about Mormons. As for guessing that they'd be "ideal neighbors" my response to that is you never know until you live next door to someone what kind of neighbor they'll be....

I'm sure there are great options for outdoor recreation living in SLC. I just question what the primary employment field would be - where are all these new UT residents working? I haven't researched this, so I don't know the answer - are there any huge employers there, ie, airlines, banking, insurance, etc. headquartered there? You could certainly ask the same question about people moving to other states in large numbers too - I'm just curious about UT in this instance.

I think I read that SLC is close to 50% LDS, with Provo and other cities being mostly LDS.

I know somebody who used to live there. He said it's extremely difficult finding work unless you're a Mormon. I've nothing against them per se. I wouldn't like any city heavily dominated by any religion.

[Jammie]

BTW, I see Wyoming was a state with appreciation (second to Utah). So where are people buying in Wyoming???//Unquote

Although Wyo. still has a lot of wide open spaces and has pretty harsh winters, there are several reasons why the market is booming there. First of all, many parts of Wyo. and Mont. don't even have enough housing for the people who are relocating there for employment. Their unemployment rates are around 2%, which of course means there is NO unemployment there. Their housing prices have not taken the tremendous jump as they did in many states. Wyo. has a lot of friendly, welcoming people. They have very low crime rates. They have no state income tax. The Grand Tetons and Yellowstone National Park are in Wyo. and Mont. Just beautiful wide open spaces for the people who are tired of living in congested areas.

As far as the exact areas of the boom, you may want to DM Elkhunter or ask on the Wyo. forum. I'll bet they'll be happy to answer your question.