AZ population to hit 7.05 million in 2017 (Phoenix, Tucson: 2015, how much, employment)

[wit-nit]

Economists predict solid gains in state during 2017

Business will heat up as population tops 7 million
The Arizona Republic
22 Feb 2017
RUSS WILES


A new report sees Arizona shifting into higher gear this year, with the pace of economic growth nearly doubling and the state’s population passing 7 million.

“Real GDP growth has ramped up as long-standing efforts to diversify the state’s economy are beginning to pay off in a big way, just as the inflows of retirees and tourists kick back into high gear,” wrote Mark Vitner and Jamie Feik, economists for Wells Fargo Securities.

They see Arizona’s gross domestic product rising 3.6 percent in 2017 after an estimated gain of 2.1 percent in 2016. That would beat the company’s forecast for 2017 U.S. GDP growth of around 3 percent.

“Arizona’s economy appears to have had solid momentum going into 2017, as evidenced by the continued slide in the unemployment rate and growing list of corporate relocations and expansions,” the economists added. They cited Intel’s recent decision to invest $7 billion at an existing plant in Chandler, an expansion announcement by Raytheon Missile System in Tucson and Apple’s intention to start manufacturing at a Mesa factory.

The state’s jobless rate, which averaged 5.5 percent in 2016, could ease to 4.8 percent this year, according to the forecast.

Arizona’s job growth slowed down a bit late last year, but Vitner and Feik suggested that might be an anomaly. “Arizona’s health care and construction industries led employment growth in 2016,” they reported. “Both sectors benefit from the continued influx of new residents into Arizona.”

Arizona’s growing population

Wells Fargo projects Arizona’s population will end 2017 around 7.05 million residents, up from an estimated 6.93 million in 2016. Net migration to Arizona reached a post-recession high last year, the report said, with Gilbert, Scottsdale and Chandler all ranking among the nation’s 10 fastest-growing cities.

“Employers are attracted by Arizona’s lower business costs, particularly relative to other West Coast

[Arizona Renegade]

This is interesting, at least, in the sense that Arizona is again becoming such a popular place for people to want to live and that the population is becoming so large. I realize that it has actually been at least a fairly popular destination for years, but 7,000,000 in population seems like a significant mark to reach.

To those of you who pay attention to and know more about this stuff, do you think this is a good things for the state, and the Phoenix Metro area, in particular? Or is it maybe a bad thing? Or, is it likely not really a big deal?

[PhoenixSomeday]

Has a carrying capacity, so to speak, ever been estimated for the water here? Rivers, underground, all together, etc.

[Valley Native]

Arizona is now one of the larger populated states, and will likely be moving into the top 10 in a future Census if it keeps growing the way it has. I see this as both positive and negative. The question is: what kind of people are we attracting? If we're bringing in educated, talented, skilled, and ambitious ones who want to contribute something beneficial to the economy besides retirement, then it's definitely positive. If we keep attracting the low skilled, poorly educated, lazy types who are only here for the sunshine & cheaper cost of living, then it's not going to help as far as better jobs and quality of life.

[Hschlick84]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Arizona is now one of the larger populated states, and will likely be moving into the top 10 in a future Census if it keeps growing the way it has. I see this as both positive and negative. The question is: what kind of people are we attracting? If we're bringing in educated, talented, skilled, and ambitious ones who want to contribute something beneficial to the economy besides retirement, then it's definitely positive. If we keep attracting the low skilled, poorly educated, lazy types who are only here for the sunshine & cheaper cost of living, then it's not going to help as far as better jobs and quality of life.

Everybody basically. Retirees, poor, rich, blue collared, white collared, lazy, low skilled, high skilled, medium skilled. That reflects the country as a whole.

In my neck of the woods, wish there were more higher paying jobs up in Prescott, and PV area. It's mostly retirees here, the demographics are out of balance for a person in my early 30s.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by PhoenixSomeday

Has a carrying capacity, so to speak, ever been estimated for the water here? Rivers, underground, all together, etc.

Of course, the carrying capacity of any place inhabitable by people has been estimated in order to build infrastructure necessary to support the population.

Despite nearing 7million people, the majority of the water in Arizona is still used for agriculture, around 70%.

And improvements in how we residents use water has helped quite a bit. "Phoenix, for example, has reported a per capita per day decline of about 27 percent over the past 20 years. Some cities such as Tucson and Tempe have seen more than a 7 percent per capita drop in usage over just the past four years."

So the demand side of this equation is changing rapidly and it appears the supply side of the calculation for reliable water supply from the Colorado River may have been during particularly wet years, as the inflow has failed to meet the allocated outflow for some time now. As climate changes remains hotly contested nobody is ready to reallocate the shares of water existing the CO River dams but users, mainly farmers, are taking steps to try and avoid mandatory water supply cuts if the major reservoirs drop below certain levels. With the historical snow-pack this year we've likely put off more pressing water cuts for now but the issue tends to rear it's ugly head again every few years.

It's impossible to predict what the future will hold but given the above numbers I feel confident that anyone alive now will not need to worry about turning on the water tap someday and having nothing come out. The real issue would be how much of an economic hit do we take in the form of lowered agriculture production as demand increases and supply remains tight.

Las Vegas will seems to be a good prediction of Phoenix's future, unlike us the LV metro depends almost entirely on CO River water and has taken much more aggressive steps to curb wasteful water use on things like lawns and recycle everything they possibly can after it's put down the drain.

Here are some links on Arizona specifically.

Arizona
Parched: Arizona per capita water use declining

[wit-nit]

When I moved here in the 1960's the population of AZ was at 1.5 million Phoenix population around 450,000 under. Horse were everywhere. My how times have changed since then.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by wit-nit

When I moved here in the 1960's the population of AZ was at 1.5 million Phoenix population around 450,000 under. Horse were everywhere. My how times have changed since then.

Yup, over half of a century passing will change things a bit

I do enjoy hearing stories and picture of that time in the valley